BHP’s Copper Boom is Making Zambia More Attractive Again

BHP’s copper business has overtaken iron ore as the mining giant’s biggest source of earnings for the first full financial year, strengthening the commercial case for its renewed exploration interest in Zambia as demand for the metal accelerates.

The world’s largest listed miner reported $18.19 billion in underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation from copper in the year ended June 30, 2026, up about 48% from a year earlier. That compared with roughly $14.5 billion from iron ore.

Copper accounted for 54% of BHP’s $32.9 billion in group underlying EBITDA, up from 45% a year earlier, underscoring the growing importance of the metal to the company’s business.

BHP’s underlying attributable profit rose 30% to $13.2 billion, while revenue increased 15% to $58.8 billion. The company declared a final dividend of 99 cents per share, taking its full-year dividend to $1.72, its highest in four years.

The stronger copper👏🏽 performance came despite lower production. BHP produced about 1.95 million metric tons of copper during the year, down 3% from the previous year, while its average realised copper price rose about 35% to $5.74 per pound.

The combination of higher prices and lower unit costs helped offset the production decline.

BHP’s copper operations are concentrated in Chile, Australia and Peru, with development interests in Argentina and the United States. The company expects global copper consumption to rise from about 34 million tons a year currently to more than 50 million tons by 2050, driven by electricity networks, renewable energy, electric vehicles, construction and data centres.

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure is adding to demand because data centres require large amounts of electricity and copper-intensive equipment.

BHP estimates the global market could need more than 2.5 million tons of additional mine supply by 2030 to remain balanced, with the potential shortfall widening to 10 million tons in the following decade.

The company plans to increase copper production by as much as 40% between fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2035.

Zambia comes back into focus

That outlook is giving Zambia greater strategic importance for BHP, which has begun exploring the country’s potential for large, deeply buried copper deposits.

Zambia’s Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development said in April that BHP was interested in conducting large-scale copper exploration in the country following meetings in Lusaka between Zambian officials and Campbell McCuaig, BHP’s head of global generative exploration.

BHP is examining deposits that could lie deep underground or beneath layers of geological material, making them difficult to identify using conventional exploration techniques.

McCuaig said BHP was using advanced geological techniques and large-scale data analysis to identify mineral systems that could have produced major copper deposits. He also welcomed Zambia’s efforts to improve access to geological information through airborne surveys and the digitisation of historical records.

BHP also held exploration workshops in South Africa, Namibia, Angola and Zambia in April and May, bringing together junior mining companies, geological agencies, universities and research institutions.

The company said it chose South Africa to launch its 2026 exploration programme because Africa would play an important role in the world’s future mineral discovery pipeline.

BHP has not, however, announced an acquisition, exploration licence or investment commitment in Zambia. Its activity remains at the exploration and information-gathering stage.

A potentially important return to Africa

BHP’s renewed interest in Zambia is notable given its limited direct presence in Africa since it spun off a collection of assets into South32 in 2015.

The company subsequently invested in Tanzania’s Kabanga nickel project but later exited the venture. Its unsuccessful attempt to acquire Anglo American in 2024 also highlighted BHP’s preference for large, long-life assets and its reluctance to take on Anglo’s South African iron ore and platinum operations.

Zambia could fit that strategy if exploration uncovers a sufficiently large deposit.

The country is Africa’s second-largest copper producer after Democratic Republic of Congo. It produced 890,346 tons of copper in 2025, up about 8% from 825,513 tons a year earlier, although output fell short of the government’s target of 1 million tons.

Production declined 4.27% to 208,992 tons in the first quarter of 2026, with operational problems at some producers weighing on output.

Zambia aims to more than triple annual copper production to 3 million tons by 2031, a target that would require significant new investment in mines, power infrastructure and processing capacity.

Major producers and investors in the country include First Quantum Minerals, Barrick Mining, Vedanta Resources, China’s JCHX Mining and United Arab Emirates-based International Resources Holding.

The country is also developing the $2.2 billion Mingomba copper project, backed by KoBold Metals, whose investors include Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos.

For Zambia, renewed interest from BHP comes as governments and miners compete to secure new copper resources needed to meet expected demand from electrification, renewable energy and data-centre expansion.

But exploration interest does not guarantee a mine. BHP has yet to commit capital to a Zambian project, while the country continues to face challenges including electricity shortages, smelting constraints and regulatory uncertainty.

For BHP, however, copper has already moved beyond being a long-term growth story. Its latest results show that the metal is now generating more earnings than iron ore, making the search for new copper deposits increasingly central to the company’s strategy.

David Goldblatt (South Africa)

Most Famous Photo: His extensive body of work documenting life under and after apartheid, such as “A white child, black nanny and her charge on a park bench” (1975) or “Johannesburg, 1972” (various scenes of everyday life in a segregated city).

Short Bio: David Goldblatt (1930-2018) was a seminal South African photographer renowned for his incisive and nuanced documentation of the social and political landscape of his country. His work, primarily in black and white, explored the complex realities of apartheid and its aftermath, capturing the subtle ways in which power, race, and class shaped daily life.

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