Election Results and the Voter Dynamics Facing the Coalition Government

Address by Dr Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh, Department of International Relations, Witwatersrand University, at the FW de Klerk Foundation’s Coalition Government Conference, 12 July 2024

Thank you very much, Christo (if I may) and Mrs de Klerk and to all of my fellow speakers and to all gathered here today. It is wonderful to be with you here to engage and join in dialogue at this fascinating, sometimes pantomimic, but always interesting time in our country’s democracy.

I have two prime purposes today: The first is to reflect on the election results and to try and interpret those results perhaps beyond the traditional tropes that have already begun to emerge around them, to try to distil some insight in those results that maybe goes beyond the obvious news cycle. And then, to try and link that to the purpose for which we gather here today, which is to assess the opportunities and threats that lie pregnant in this political moment.

To begin first with questions of what actually just happened politically, I’d like to focus firstly on what happened with the political parties and then to look at the question of turnout and to try and make sense of what I think was a breathtaking and paradoxical election outcome. Let’s just take a step back and look at what really happened here, because I don’t think we’ve fully digested the political earthquake that we have just witnessed.

The ANC fell – and I’ve seen these numbers actually misquoted in many places – from 57% of the electorate or of the national vote to below 40%. It’s actually 39,7% of the national electorate and that’s what happens when you combine the national ballot and the regional ballot, which is what has produced the parliamentary allocation. The ANC is actually officially now not just below 50, which was the talk of the election, but indeed below 40 and now sits at 39% of the national electorate in terms of its support.

For an ANC to be below 40 is one thing, but perhaps….continue reading this article HERE.

Cyril Ramaphosa: {2014 – 2018} Ramaphosa served as Deputy President under Zuma and was known for his business acumen and focus on economic growth, later succeeding Zuma as President.