From Counting Cents to Dodging Debits: South Africans Are Triaging to Stay Afloat

• From Counting Cents to Dodging Debits: South Africans Are Triaging to Stay Afloat
• South Africans aren’t tightening belts anymore. They’re rewiring how they buy. NDA’s Sebastien Alexanderson unpacks how the affordability reset is reshaping the way consumers spend, borrow, and choose.

Something has shifted inside the South African household: by May 2026, the consumer has quietly changed shape. Not necessarily poorer, though many are, but more cautious, more clinical, and far less forgiving.

Sebastien Alexanderson, Head of National Debt Advisors, said what the country is going through isn’t a temporary squeeze, a bad quarter, or a cycle waiting to turn. It’s a more permanent affordability reset.

“At this stage of the economy, we’re not watching consumers tighten their belts. We’re watching them rewire their relationship with money,” said Alexanderson.

The Data Says “Better.” The Wallet Disagrees

He noted that the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index rose to -7 in Q1 2026, up from -9. It’s the highest reading since Q4 2024. However, high-income households rebounded from -12 to -4. Low-income households earning under R5,000 a month sank from -8 to -12.

“The country didn’t get more confident. It split. And that uptick was measured before the world sent a fresh invoice: US and Israeli strikes on Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in late February, tearing oil from under $60 to over $110 a barrel,” said Alexanderson.

On top of that, the Reserve Bank quietly shelved the 50 basis points of cuts everyone had penciled in for 2026. By 12 May, the rand was sitting at R16.55 to the dollar, which made it the most volatile emerging market currency on Bloomberg’s tracker.

“Most recently, motorists copped R3 a litre on petrol and R7 a litre on diesel. Electricity is up 85% in five years, while general inflation has only climbed 30%. Another 8.8% Eskom hike is already locked in, and municipal increases of 9% are still on the way,” said Alexanderson.

There Is Nothing Left To Cut

Alexanderson said the biggest mistake to make is thinking that the consumer is being cautious and cutting back. The truth, he said, is that the cuts already happened. In 2023, in 2024, in 2025.

“We’re now seeing people who’ve sold the second car, cancelled the medical aid top up, moved their kids out of private school, and are still short at month end. There is nothing left to cut. So, what changes from here isn’t the budget. It’s the buyer.”

The Data That Is Hard To Ignore

Alexanderson said NDA’s own caseload paints the picture in numbers.

“Of more than 60,000 South Africans under debt review at NDA, over 94% don’t own a car, 95% have no home loan, more than 40,000 are juggling three or more unsecured loans, and some are carrying as many as 34,” said Alexanderson.

What The Reset Looks Like On A Shelf

Alexanderson said five clear patterns now shape how South Africans move through a store.

The death of the mid-tier. It’s house brand or premium now. Nothing in between. The comfortable “good enough” default has nowhere left to hide.

Essentials, redefined. Data is essential. Electricity backup is essential. School readiness is essential. The “treat” category has collapsed into single digit rand till point impulses.

Credit as oxygen, not aspiration. Real take-home pay fell 1.2% in just the first two months of 2026. Consumers aren’t borrowing to upgrade. They’re borrowing to stand still.

Brand trust is arithmetic. Loyalty is no longer a feeling. It’s a unit cost. If your rewards programme can’t be expressed in cents per rand on a payslip, you’ve lost.

The two-pot bump is over. Two pot withdrawals. Earlier rate cuts. Rising stocks. A stronger rand. All four tailwinds have reversed or run out.

“For households already stretched by debt, fuel, electricity, food, and transport costs, every purchase now carries a question: can I afford this without falling behind somewhere else?” said Alexanderson.

“When every rand is already spoken for, even a small price increase can force a household to choose between comfort, dignity, and survival,” said Alexanderson.

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Author: Omega Ngema from Fiancial Wealth Holdings on behalf of National Debt Advisors.

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