Scope, Methodology A random 10% sample was drawn from a collection of X posts containing terms related to anti-foreign national sentiment by users who report to be located in South Africa, in the month leading up to the 30 June protests. Each of the sampled posts was processed by expert-trained algorithms to determine the emotions expressed, and to detect different types of harmful rhetoric.
An analysis of X posts in the lead-up to the 30 June “March to March” protests suggests that there are clear indicators which can serve as early warning signs for rising anti-foreign national tension in South Africa. By being aware of these key indicators, it could be possible to detect early warning signs and mitigate real-world impact on lives, livelihoods and property.
Anger as Lead Indicator
Among all the emotions tracked, anger was found to be the most predictive of real-world action. In the weeks leading up to the 30 June protest, there was a marked spike in the number of posts which expressed anger as a primary emotion. This anger peaked in the week of the protest, but the clear jump in the two weeks leading up to the protest suggests it is a potentially strong early warning indicator.
While Hate Speech Drops, Threats Increase
In the weeks leading up to the protest, there was a steady increase in two of the most dangerous of the harmful rhetoric types tracked – hate speech and inflammatory rhetoric. While the absolute number of hate speech messages dropped in the week of the protest – possibly an indicator of warnings issued by government, and a slight temperance of language by organisers – there was a rise in the number of threats to individuals in the week of the protest. These indicators could again be used, in conjunction with emotion, to provide early warning.
Lack of Positive Narratives Evident in Sentiment
Finally, it is notable that there was a distinct lack of positive narratives about foreign nationals according to a measure of generic sentiment in the posts in the weeks leading up to the protest. A positive messaging strategy may have had a mitigating impact, but very little of such messaging was prominent in the data.
Number of generally positive and negative posts from 3-30 June 2026. There was a marked spike in negativity ahead of the week of the protest
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Author: Agnes Matladi from Olivia Jones Communications on behalf of Tales and Turning.
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