Ox Powers His Way to Top

Ox Nche famously maintains that “Salads don’t win scrums” and, whatever his diet is, it’s certainly working!

The Hollywoodbets Sharks prop is the new No 1 in the URC Top 100 – the ranking system which reflects performances across the Vodacom URC, EPCR competitions and international rugby.

He follows in the footsteps of fellow Springboks loosehead Steven Kitshoff who twice previously topped the chart.

The 29-year-old Nche heads an all-South African leading group, with Vodacom Bulls forwards Elrigh Louw and Gerhard Steenekamp in second and third respectively.

Leinster and Ireland back row forward Jack Conan is the best performer from another country, with Edinburgh’s recently recruited England international tighthead prop Paul Hill lying behind him in fifth.

The top ten features no fewer than six South African players in all, with Emirates Lions full-back Quan Horn and Hollywoodbets Sharks centre Andre Esterhuizen sixth and eighth respectively, while their countryman Boan Venter is ninth through his efforts at loosehead prop for Edinburgh.

Ireland provide a trio of high-ranking star names, with Conan joined by fellow internationals Tadhg Beirne (7th) and Jamison Gibson-Park (10th).

The top ten includes seven forwards and three backs, with Horn the leading performer behind the scrum, while there are 11 South Africans in the top 20.

Looking at other countries, the Scarlets’ second row Alex Craig (11th) is both the leading performer from a Welsh team and the top Scottish international, just ahead of Edinburgh’s Ewan Ashman, while Benetton prop Simone Ferrari leads the way for Italy in 13th.

By topping the table, Nche – who was fifth this time last year – follows the example set by fellow Springbok Shark Eben Etzebeth and Leinster hooker Dan Sheehan, in addition to Kitshoff.

Powered by the StatMaster xP algorithm, the URC Top 100 identifies the most valuable performers across the 16 Vodacom URC teams by analysing every match they have appeared in during the last 12 months.

Then StatMaster applies an “expected points” (xP) algorithm to each event in those games. Like “expected points added” (EPA) in the NFL and “expected goals” (xG) in football, this revolutionary stat measures the impact each player has on his side’s chance of scoring. It’s based on the idea that rugby is a team game and while the player who slots the ball through the posts or touches it down deserves plenty of credit, so do the 14 others who helped create that opportunity.

For example, a player can gain points by doing things that increase his team’s probability of claiming the next score, such as crashing past defenders, nailing a 50/22 kick, earning a scrum penalty or winning a crucial turnover on his own try-line.

On the other hand, if he makes a costly error, he can lose points. Crucially, the algorithm adjusts for lots of match factors, including a player’s position, his location on the field, the phase type, the time on the clock and the quality of his team-mates and opponents.

All this allows URC StatMaster to give the most accurate data-driven estimates of how much players are currently contributing to their teams. The ratings can also be broken into skill types, so you can look at the best prop at scrummaging, the best flanker at defending, the best fly half at goal kicking or the best winger at carrying.

All the ratings have been scaled so an average Vodacom URC player scores 80, with the very best performers in the league reaching over 90. As an illustration, Nche is on 95.2, with his nearest rival, Bulls back rower Louw, on 94.2.

As the season progresses and players shuffle in and out of the Top 100, StatMaster will be on hand to analyse the biggest movers and shakers.

URC Top 100 Top Ten

1. Ox Nche – Hollywoodbets Sharks
2. Elrigh Louw – Vodacom Bulls
3. Gerhard Steenekamp – Vodacom Bulls
4. Jack Conan – Leinster Rugby
5. Paul Hill – Edinburgh Rugby
6. Quan Horn – Emirates Lions
7. Tadhg Beirne – Munster Rugby
8. Andre Esterhuizen – Hollywoodbets Sharks
9. Boan Venter – Edinburgh Rugby
10. Jamison Gibson-Park – Leinster Rugby