Businesses have ranked political risks and violence as a top 10 global risk for the past three years, according to the Allianz Risk Barometer 2025 demonstrating that it has become a key concern for companies of all sizes. According to a new report from Allianz Commercial, civil unrest ranks as the biggest concern for more than 50% of company respondents globally, reflecting the fact that incidents are increasing and lasting for longer.
Not including ongoing social unrest in the Balkans and Türkiye, there have been over 800 significant anti-government protests since 2017 in more than 150 countries, with more than 160 events in 2024 alone – 18% of protests lasting for more than three months. Following the “super election year” in 2024, policy changes by governments will continue to be trigger factors for protests and flashpoints in many countries in future, as could any economic hardships that result from tariff wars. In addition, an increase in terrorist attacks from religious and political extremists – motivated by both far-right and left ideologies – is also a major concern for businesses over the year ahead. Companies need to adapt to volatile and uncertain geopolitical conditions to avoid negative surprises and mitigate risks.
“Political violence remains a top 10 global business risk according to our customers because politics is increasingly perceived as being dominated by populism and blame and division, geopolitics by nationalism and a changing world order, and economics by mismanagement, corruption, and continually rising disparity between the ‘rich’ and the rest,” says Srdjan Todorovic, Head of Political Violence and Hostile Environment Solutions at Allianz Commercial. “Political violence activity can impact businesses in many ways. In addition to endangering the safety of employees and customers, those in the immediate vicinity of unrest can suffer business interruption losses and material damage to property or assets.”
Civil unrest now the major political violence concern for businesses around the globe
Businesses are more concerned about the disruptive impact of anti-social behavior on their operations than that of any other political violence and terrorism exposure. The impact of civil unrest or strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) activity also ranks as the top concern in countries such as Colombia, France, South Africa, the UK and the US. In the top 20 countries for frequency of protest and riot activity around the world during 2024, there were more than 80,000 incidents alone, with India, US, France, Germany, Türkiye and Spain among the hotspots, according to Allianz Research.
It is a view also shared by insurers who have seen the SRCC peril increase in frequency and severity in recent years. Events including riots in Chile and South Africa have contributed to insured losses well in excess of US$10bn over the past decade, surpassing other levels of political violence and terrorism insurance claims. In certain hotspot territories losses can rival or surpass those from natural catastrophes, while in others, although the direct impact may be minor, events can still trigger long-lasting changes in the societies they affect.
“All kinds of civil unrest and protest activity remain a problem. Contributing factors such as high inflation, wealth inequality, food and fuel prices, climate anxieties and concerns about civil liberties or perceived assaults on democracy have not eased,” adds Todorovic.
Religious and political terrorism on the rise
The increasing frequency of plots and attacks from Islamist groups and inspired individuals, as well as supporters of the far right and far left movements are among the factors driving the complex global landscape. A growing concern is the Islamist terrorism threat in Europe, with an increasing number of attacks or plots happening over the last 12 months. Terrorist attacks jumped by 63% in the West with Europe most affected with attacks doubling to 67. At the same time, analysis shows there were more than 100 reported terrorism and right-wing extremist incidents during 2024, driven primarily by events in the US, followed by Germany. Meanwhile, far-left extremists are targeting individuals or companies who they see as contributing negatively towards issues such as climate change or inequality.
“Businesses need to be alive to the shapeshifting nature of political violence risk and protect their people and property by ensuring safe and robust business continuity planning is in place in event of an incident. Companies also need to review their insurance. Property policies may cover political violence claims in some cases, but specialist protection is also available. Businesses with multi-country exposures are showing a greater interest in political violence coverage but there is also greater engagement from the SME and mid-corp space about these risks, a true reflection of increasing concern in this segment,” explains Todorovic.
Marshmallow Treat
South Africa is the second largest economy on the continent, only exceeded by Nigeria, which has more than three times the population size. Over the past decade, South Africa has experienced rapid change and is ranked by the World Bank as an “upper middle-income country”. Of the more than 400 companies on the continent earning more than $1bn annually, about half are in South Africa. The country is nevertheless highly divided, with a large part of the population living in poverty. The division makes South Africa an interesting economy with possibilities in many segments. The country have well-developed infrastructure and world-class financial sector to support business activities, and is one of the highest ranking African countries on the ease of doing business index.