South Africa’s new vehicle market delivered its strongest April performance in 13 years, with domestic sales rising 13,0% year-on-year to 47,979 units. The result confirms that underlying demand remains resilient, even as rising fuel costs, inflation risk and a more cautious interest rate outlook begin to test affordability.
According to naamsa | The Automotive Business Council, April sales were up from 42,467 units in April 2025. Dealer activity remained the backbone of the market, accounting for 91,1% of total sales, followed by rental sales at 5,1%, corporate fleets at 2,2% and government at 1,6%.
“This is an encouraging result, particularly as the market has not reached this level in April since 2013,” says Thanda Sithole, Senior Economist at WesBank. “The growth was also broad-based, with passenger cars, light commercial vehicles and the heavier segments all posting gains. This suggests the recovery has some depth, although affordability remains a key constraint for many consumers.”
Passenger car sales increased 14,3% to 34,414 units, while light commercial vehicles rose 9,7% to 10,966 units. Medium commercial vehicles grew 10,5% to 687 units and heavy trucks and buses increased 9,9% to 1,912 units.
Exports were softer, declining 4,0% to 30,939 units. The fall was partly driven by a 42,9% decline in light commercial vehicle exports linked to model-change activity at a major exporter, rather than a clear structural shift in demand.
The domestic result comes against a changing economic backdrop. Inflation rose to 3,1% in March from 3,0% in February, but that reading was taken before the full impact of sharp fuel price increases. The next CPI release, due on 20 May, will more fully reflect those fuel effects.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6,75% in March, but warned that higher energy prices could push inflation to around 4% in the second quarter, with fuel inflation above 18%. This has postponed expectations of further rate cuts and leaves vehicle buyers facing a less supportive finance environment. While we expect the SARB to hike the policy rate by 25bps this month (an interim hike) to 7.00%, amid upwardly revised inflation forecasts, the policy rate should still ease towards 6.25% by the end of 2027.
Government’s temporary fuel levy relief provides some near-term support. The R3,00 per litre petrol levy reduction has been extended to 2 June, while diesel relief increases to R3,93 per litre for May, effectively reducing the diesel levy to zero. The relief will be halved in June before returning to statutory levels from 1 July.
“The fuel levy relief is welcome, particularly for households and commercial operators, but it does not remove the underlying pressure,” says Sithole. “Once the relief is phased out, the full impact of higher fuel prices will be felt more directly by motorists, transport operators and the broader supply chain.”
Affordability remains the key risk to sustained recovery. Proposed import-duty changes on vehicles from certain markets could place further pressure on entry-level pricing, at a time when first-time and budget-conscious buyers are already under strain.
“The April result shows that the market still has momentum,” concludes Sithole. “The key question now is how durable that momentum will be as fuel, inflation and interest-rate pressures filter through household budgets and business confidence.”
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