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Eskom anticipates that load shedding will likely be “maintained within Stage 2” this winter period.

This is according to the power utility’s Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane, who was speaking during the State of the System and Winter Outlook media briefing held at Megawatt Park on Friday.

He said the forecast was made on the anticipation of the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) reaching 14 000MW during winter – down from the anticipated 15 000MW during the same period last year.

The UCLF is the rate at which generating units breakdown and do not perform optimally.

“For winter 2024… the likely scenario from our assumptions is that load shedding will be maintained within Stage 2 at most. In the extreme case where the unreliability increases, that component may go occasionally [to] Stage 5 but we really think that on the basis of what we see, the performance of the fleet, load shedding will stay within Stage 2.

“This is on the back of the decrease of the backline unreliability capacity reduction of 1 000MW which is what we use for our baseline assumptions,” he said.

Marokane said although the reduction may look minimal, it is critical for managing the intensity of load shedding.

“What is really important as we go into this season’s forecast is that the base level for UCLF number is lower by a 1000MW. When you understand the capacity that we have, it does not look as a big number but when you actually understand the implications in terms of the levels of load shedding, to be able to bank that capacity is an important aspect,” he said.

The CEO explained that the power utility has been hard at work to lower the UCLF.

“When you look at the time period between the last winter and now, you can actually see the reduction in unplanned losses – a 9% drop. It is mostly coming from the priority stations that were targeted as focal points.

“We also have the benefit of the early return of the four Kusile [Power Station] units that were out. The losses are averaging around 14.2GW. Our focus on targets in this financial year is to keep this below 14GW. This is where the first capacity release is coming from. The decline… is not as fast as we want to [and] our focal point this year is to deal with six or seven key areas that causes unreliability and once we tackle them we should be able to see ourselves comfortably at lower levels than this,” he said.

Marokane insisted that the power utility will be digging their boots in deeper this winter to further reduce losses at power stations.

He urged South Africans to do their part by using electricity efficiently and sparingly this winter.

“Over the winter period, work continues and we are targeting to reduce the unplanned losses by a further 1.7GW. This will be made up of 1.3GW from partial load loss reduction but also…demand side management initiatives are also underway.

“Our ability to beat load shedding this winter still depends on our collective collaboration and to this extent, we’ll be launching the energy saving campaign this May asking all of us to play our part in this regard,” Marokane said. – SAnews.gov.za

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