What Gets Fact-Checked? How Politics Shapes the Answer in Four African Countries
Many fact-checkers are moving away from declaring claims as true or false, and trying to help people judge information for themselves.
Technology
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South Africans Aren’t Giving Up on Car Ownership. They’re Just Buying Differently
- TransUnion's Q2 2026 Mobility Insights Report reveals new passenger vehicle sales grew 15.8% year-on-year, the strongest annual growth in three quarters.
- Used-to-New Ratio declines from 3.2 to 2.7 year-on-year, reinforcing the shift towards new vehicles
- Vehicle purchase intent declined from 22% to 19%, as households became more cautious amid rising affordability pressures.
Despite continued fuel price pressure, rising living costs and ongoing strain on household finances, South Africans continue to prioritise vehicle ownership. According to TransUnion's Q2 2026 Mobility Insights Report, new passenger vehicle sales increased 15.8% year-on-year during the quarter, marking the strongest annual growth recorded in the past three quarters despite challenging economic conditions.
Beneath this growth, however, a significant shift is underway. Consumers are showing renewed interest in used vehicles and more affordable options as affordability becomes a more important consideration. The changing dynamics are reflected in vehicle registration patterns.
The used-to-new ratio declined from 3.2 in Q2 2025 to 2.7 in Q2 2026, indicating that new vehicles gained market share over the past year. While the ratio increased from 2.3 in Q1, the year-on-year movement confirms that the broader shift towards new vehicles remains intact.
"One of the most encouraging findings from this quarter's report is that South Africans have not stepped away from vehicle ownership despite a more challenging economic backdrop," says Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion Africa.
"What we are seeing instead is a more pragmatic consumer. Mobility remains essential, but consumers are carefully weighing affordability, financing costs, fuel efficiency and long-term ownership expenses before making purchasing decisions."
As consumers increasingly turn to used vehicles, alternative financing structures, rental models and digital purchasing journeys, the industry's risk profile is evolving alongside these opportunities. Fraud is no longer confined to traditional vehicle-finance applications. Businesses face growing exposure to identity fraud, synthetic identities, document manipulation, income misrepresentation, ownership fraud and payment fraud across multiple points of the automotive ecosystem.
Affordability Reshapes the Market
One of the clearest indicators of changing consumer priorities is the rapid rise of Chinese automotive brands. These brands now account for more than one in every five (22.4%) passenger and light commercial vehicles sold in South Africa, highlighting the growing importance of affordability, technology and overall value in purchasing decisions.
"Affordability has become one of the defining themes of South Africa's mobility market," says Hatea. "Consumers are increasingly looking for the best overall value proposition rather than simply the lowest price. Brands that combine affordability, quality, technology and lower running costs are proving particularly attractive in the current environment."
Consumers Remain Engaged but More Cautious
Data from TransUnion's Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Survey points to a more measured outlook among households.
The proportion of consumers intending to purchase a vehicle within the next three months declined from 22% in Q1 to 19% in Q2. The decline was most pronounced among lower- and middle-income households, while purchase intent among higher-income households increased from 24% to 27%.
Importantly, this moderation should not be interpreted as weakening demand. Rather, it suggests consumers are becoming more deliberate as affordability pressures intensify.
The continued strength in vehicle sales indicates that vehicle ownership remains a priority for many South Africans. However, consumers are increasingly focused on achieving the right balance between affordability, reliability and long-term value.
Hybrid Vehicles Gain Momentum
The same practical mindset is shaping attitudes towards vehicle technology. While internal combustion engine vehicles continue to dominate the market, hybrid vehicles have emerged as the preferred route to electrification. According to the report, 45% of consumers now consider hybrid vehicles when evaluating their next purchase, making them the most attractive electrified vehicle option in South Africa.
Rising fuel costs, concerns around charging infrastructure and growing awareness of operating expenses are encouraging consumers to seek greater efficiency without compromising convenience.
"South Africa's mobility transition is likely to follow a distinctly local path. Consumers want lower running costs and greater efficiency, but practicality remains paramount. Hybrid technology offers a compelling middle ground between affordability, convenience and sustainability.”
"As automotive customer journeys become increasingly digital, businesses need to connect identity, device, behavioural and financial intelligence to distinguish legitimate customers from higher-risk activity without adding friction to the customer experience," adds Hatea.
Value Will Define the Next Phase of Growth
Despite a more challenging outlook for households and businesses, the report suggests the underlying fundamentals supporting vehicle demand remain intact.
For OEMs, dealers, financiers and insurers, future growth opportunities will increasingly depend on their ability to meet consumer expectations around affordability, convenience and efficiency. Organisations that can help consumers navigate a constrained economic environment through competitive pricing, flexible financing solutions and lower-cost mobility options will be better positioned to respond to demand.
Growth, however, must be supported by intelligent risk management. Traditional verification approaches are increasingly being complemented by layered fraud prevention capabilities that connect identity, device, behavioural, financial and regulatory signals. This helps organisations identify higher-risk activity earlier while reducing friction for legitimate customers.
"The South African vehicle market continues to demonstrate resilience, but success in the next phase of growth will depend on understanding a more selective and value-driven consumer," concludes Hatea. “The ability to deliver affordability, efficiency, trust and long-term value will increasingly determine which brands and businesses succeed in the market.”
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NSBC AFRICA AND TRANSUNION AFRICA LAUNCHES ACCESS TO FINANCE™ TO HELP SMEs ACCESS RELEVANT FUNDING OPPORTUNITIES
National Small Business Chamber (NSBC) Africa and TransUnion Africa today officially launched Access to Finance™, a national Small Medium Enterprise (SME) funding initiative created and powered by NSBC Africa to help South African SMEs better understand their funding requirements and connect qualifying businesses with participating funders aligned to their funding needs.
Mike Anderson, Founder & CEO of NSBC Africa launched Access to Finance™ at the opening of The Business Show: Africa 2026 at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg, where thousands of entrepreneurs, business owners, executives, funders, leading brands and business decision makers are gathering for two days of business growth and opportunity.
Access to Finance™ forms part of NSBC Africa’s broader national business growth ecosystem and its longstanding mission to help entrepreneurs and SMEs access the opportunities, resources, funding and connections they need to build sustainable and successful businesses.
At its core, the initiative seeks to address one of the most persistent challenges facing South African entrepreneurs and growing businesses: accessing the right finance, at the right stage, from the right funding provider. For many SMEs, the funding landscape can be complex and difficult to navigate. Businesses may not know whether they are funding-ready, what type of finance best suits their needs or which funding providers are most relevant to their circumstances.
FUNDING. FAST. SIMPLE.
Through a structured digital journey, Access to Finance™ helps SMEs better understand their funding requirements and, where qualifying criteria are met, connects them with participating funders whose solutions are aligned to their business and funding needs. The goal is to create a simpler pathway to business finance, while supporting greater participation by qualified SMEs within the broader finance ecosystem.
Rather than simply providing businesses with a list of funders, Access to Finance™ is designed to improve alignment between SME funding needs and appropriate funding opportunities, helping entrepreneurs take a more informed and targeted approach to accessing finance.
TransUnion is the exclusive Credit Bureau Partner to Access to Finance™, working alongside NSBC Africa in support of the shared vision of strengthening SME participation within South Africa’s finance ecosystem.
CREATING GREATER VISIBILITY AND CONNECTIVITY
A central part of the Access to Finance™ vision is improving the connection between South African SMEs and the organisations that finance business growth. By helping businesses better understand their readiness for finance, before engaging participating funders, the initiative aims to create a more efficient journey for both SMEs and funding providers.
Speaking at the official opening of The Business Show: Africa and the launch of Access to Finance™, Lee Naik, CEO & Regional President of TransUnion Africa, addressed the importance of strengthening the environment in which South African SMEs can better understand their financial position, become more visible within the finance ecosystem and connect with appropriate opportunities for growth.
“Small businesses are one of South Africa’s most important engines of growth and job creation, yet too many still struggle to access the funding they need to start, sustain and scale their operations. At TransUnion Africa, we see data visibility and access to information as powerful enablers of financial inclusion and business growth. By helping businesses establish a stronger, more transparent financial profiles, we can support lenders in making more informed decisions and expand access to credit for viable enterprises,” says Naik.
A NEW ERA OF ACCESS TO FINANCE
According to Anderson, improving the connection between SMEs and appropriate finance has the potential to unlock significant business growth. “South Africa does not lack entrepreneurial ambition. What many businesses lack is a simpler, more effective way to navigate the funding landscape and connect with the right finance opportunities.
Access to Finance™ has been created to help change that. We want to make the journey smarter, simpler and more connected, helping funding-ready SMEs get closer to the finance they need to grow. When more viable businesses can access appropriate funding, they can invest, expand, create jobs and build stronger, more sustainable businesses. That is the bigger vision behind Access to Finance™.”
CREATED AND POWERED BY NSBC AFRICA
Access to Finance™ is created and powered by NSBC Africa, a non-profit organisation that has championed entrepreneurship and SME growth for more than 18 years. Through its national ecosystem of initiatives, platforms, partnerships and events, NSBC Africa works to connect entrepreneurs and small businesses with the opportunities, knowledge, solutions, funding and connections they need to build sustainable and successful businesses.
Adds Naik, “We are proud to partner with NSBC Africa on Access to Finance™ and see this as an important platform for connecting entrepreneurs with funding opportunities and help them realise their growth potential.”
The initiative represents an important next step in that mission, bringing together NSBC Africa’s SME ecosystem, technology, partnerships and funding relationships to create a smarter and more connected pathway between entrepreneurs seeking finance and participating funding providers.
The vision is clear: help more SMEs become finance-ready, connect with relevant funding opportunities and take the meaningful steps towards sustainable business growth.
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Mbombela: new, crucial policy on student housing postponed
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South Africa’s Vehicle Market Proves Resilient as Affordability Reshapes Demand
- Passenger vehicle sales reached 114,517 units in Q1 2026, with year-on-year growth moderating to 12.6%
- Chinese brands account for more than 19% of new passenger and light commercial vehicle sales nationally
- Hybrid vehicle interest rose to 39%, reinforcing hybrids as South Africa’s primary pathway in the shift toward electrified vehicles
South Africa’s passenger vehicle market remained resilient in the first quarter of 2026, but demand is evolving. Rising affordability pressures, higher fuel costs, the growth of Chinese brands and shifting powertrain preferences are reshaping the automotive landscape.
According to TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Mobility Insights Report, passenger vehicle sales reached 114,517 units in Q1 2026, slightly higher than the 114,246 units recorded in Q4 2025. Year-on-year (YoY) growth eased to 12.6%, down from the stronger performance seen during parts of 2025, but demand remained elevated despite a more uncertain macroeconomic environment.
A Stronger Start, But Growing External Pressures
The report, which provides a first quarter overview, indicates that South Africa entered 2026 on a stronger economic footing. This was supported by easing inflation, lower interest rates over the previous year, reduced load-shedding, and improved financial conditions.
However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated oil price shock have heightened downside risks. In March 2026, inflation increased from 3.1% to 4.0% in April 2026, while the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently raised the prime lending rate by 25-basis points in May 2026. Combined with higher fuel and transport costs, these factors are expected to place renewed pressure on affordability and consumer spending.
“Vehicle demand has not collapsed, but the market is moving into a more selective phase,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Consumers are still buying vehicles, but affordability is no longer only about the purchase price. Fuel costs, financing costs, insurance, servicing, and total cost of ownership are becoming central to the decision.”
Residual Value and the True Cost of Ownership
The report found that residual values are becoming an increasingly important component of vehicle affordability. As finance terms extend beyond six years for many buyers, depreciation and resale performance play a growing role in ownership economics, giving brands that retain value more effectively a competitive advantage.
The shift towards longer financing terms and the use of balloon structures reflects a growing focus on monthly affordability and cash-flow flexibility. However, this trend also increases exposure to residual value risk. Where vehicle values underperform expectations, consumers may face refinancing pressure or negative equity at trade-in, making used vehicle market performance an increasingly critical consideration.
Chinese Brands Reshape the Competitive Landscape
One of the most notable structural shifts is the continued rise of Chinese automotive brands. Chinese car sales grew by 75% YoY in Q1 2026, significantly outpacing traditional OEM growth of 2% and the broader passenger and light commercial vehicle (LCV) market growth of 12.7%. As a result, Chinese brands accounted for more than 19% of new passenger and LCV sales nationally, meaning nearly one in five new vehicles sold in South Africa was from a Chinese manufacturer in Q1 2026.
The shift is no longer driven solely by entry-level pricing. Chinese brands are increasingly competing on technology, features, fuel efficiency, range, warranty offerings, and perceived long-term value. On a combined portfolio basis, Chery Group, including Chery, Jetour, Omoda, and Jaecoo, recorded combined sales of 16,094 units in Q1 2026, positioning itself as a top three automotive player.
“Chinese brands have moved beyond the role of price disruptors. They are becoming structural industry players, influencing dealer networks, financing ecosystems, ownership perceptions, and the wider discussion around localisation and industrial competitiveness,” said Hatea.
Diverging Trends Across New and Used Markets
The new and used vehicle markets continued to show differing trends. NaTIS data indicates that new vehicle registrations increased by 11.6% YoY in Q1 2026, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. In contrast, used vehicle registrations increased by 2.6%, suggesting a modest recovery in the secondary market, although it still trails the stronger momentum seen in new vehicle sales.
The used-to-new registration ratio declined to 2.3 in Q1 2026, the lowest level recorded over the reporting period. While used vehicles still make up the majority at 69% of total registrations, the share of new vehicles has risen to 31%, up from 23% in Q4 2025. This shift has been supported by favourable pricing dynamics, with new vehicle inflation falling to 0.8%, while used vehicle prices remained in deflation at -1.3%.
Confidence Rises, But Caution Remains
Dealer sentiment also reflects the stronger demand environment. New vehicle dealer confidence increased to 67 in Q1 2026, its highest level in 13 years. However, the report cautions that increasing fuel costs, inflation risk, and rising operating expenses could create more challenging conditions in the quarters ahead.
Forward-looking consumer data remains constructive. TransUnion’s Consumer Pulse Survey found that consumers likely to purchase a vehicle in the next few months increased from 19% in Q4 2025 to 22% in Q1 2026. Short-term purchase intent is strongest amongst younger consumers, with 26% of Gen Z and 24% of Millennials indicating plans to buy.
A Gradual Shift in Powertrain Preferences
Powertrain preferences are also evolving. Internal combustion engine vehicles remain the most popular choice, preferred by 49% of consumers in Q1 2026. However, interest in hybrid electric vehicles has grown significantly to 39%, up from 30% in Q4 2025, making hybrids the leading electrified option. Interest in both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids also increased, with each reaching 26%.
“Hybrids are emerging as a practical transition pathway for South African consumers. They offer fuel savings and lower running costs without full dependence on charging infrastructure, which makes them relevant in a market where affordability and operating certainty remain critical,” said Hatea.
A Market Entering Its Next Phase
While domestic demand continues to support the industry, passenger vehicle exports remain under pressure amid trade uncertainty, geopolitical disruption, protectionism, and changing decarbonisation requirements.
“The South African automotive market is not reverting to its previous structure. The next phase will be defined by affordability, value, access to finance and how effectively industry players respond to evolving consumer behaviour,” said Hatea.
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