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Current projections by the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) assign an 81% probability of a “very strong” El Niño event between October and December 2026, with the likelihood remaining above 50% through February 2027. While weather forecasts are never certain, the message is becoming increasingly clear: El Niño is highly likely. The remaining uncertainty is not whether it will occur, but how severe it will become.
Why El Niño matters
Historically, El Niño has been closely associated with below-average rainfall across South Africa’s summer rainfall regions. The stronger the event, the greater the historical correlation with drought conditions, particularly across the country’s key…
Rainfall: Most of the country receives less than 600 mm of rainfall annually, with
the eastern regions being wetter.

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