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Fuel Price Shock Expected for South Africa in April 2026 – Automotive News | SA News

The predictive model

To understand where we are going, we have to look at the two primary levers of the Basic Fuel Price (BFP): the international price of Brent Crude oil and the strength of the Rand against the US Dollar.

Geopolitics vs. fundamentals

While long-term forecasts for 2026 originally suggested oil would stabilise around $60/bbl due to oversupply, the current reality is much harsher. Following the escalation of conflict between the US and Iran in late February, Brent Crude has spiked to over $115/bbl. A bbl is the standard unit of measurement for oil, representing one barrel of liquid, measuring 42 gallons or around 149 litres.

  • The impact: Every $1 increase in the price of oil…

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