Ghana’s cocoa production is expected to decline by at least 16% in the 2026/27 season as adverse weather, disease and the natural production cycle of cocoa trees weigh on yields.
The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) said the new season, which begins in September, would be affected by the likelihood of El Niño conditions and unusually heavy rainfall recorded in May and June.
The regulator also pointed to a sharp decline in the number of young cocoa pods expected to survive to maturity, particularly in Ghana’s Western and Western North regions. The two regions account for more than half of the country’s cocoa production.
Cocoa trees naturally alternate between high- and low-yield years, adding to the pressure on the upcoming harvest. The sector is also facing the continued spread of cocoa swollen shoot virus disease, ageing trees and the effects of illegal gold mining on agricultural land.
The weaker outlook comes after a difficult period for cocoa producers across West Africa. Ghana is the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, while neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, the largest producer, is also expecting a smaller crop yield in the 2026/27 season.
The combined production risks in the two countries could tighten global cocoa supplies and provide support for international cocoa prices, particularly if weather conditions deteriorate further.
Ghana’s COCOBOD has been implementing farm rehabilitation programmes and expanding pest and disease control measures in an effort to protect future production.
The regulator is also reintroducing nationwide free fertiliser distribution for the 2026/27 season as part of measures to support farmers and improve yields.
The production decline could have wider economic implications for Ghana because cocoa remains one of the country’s major agricultural exports and an important source of income for farming communities.
For global commodity markets, the forecast adds to concerns about supply availability from West Africa, which accounts for more than half of global cocoa production.
The outlook will depend partly on weather conditions during the growing season and the effectiveness of measures to contain disease and rehabilitate farms.
With Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire both facing production challenges, traders and chocolate manufacturers are likely to closely monitor crop developments as the new cocoa season gets underway.
Emmanuel Abara Benson is a business journalist and editor covering artificial intelligence, global markets, and emerging technology.
He has previously worked with Business Insider Africa and Nairametrics, reporting on finance, startups, and innovation.
His work focuses on AI, digital economy, and global tech trends.
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