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- Half (50%) of South Africans said their household finances were better than planned at this point in 2026, up from 43% in Q2 2026.
- 79% expect their household income to increase over the next year, up from 75% a year ago.
- 43% plan to apply for new credit or refinance existing products, while 58% believe they would be approved if they needed access to credit.
South African consumers reported improved optimism in their household finances during the third quarter. While concerns about inflation remain widespread, findings from TransUnion’s Q3 2026 South Africa Consumer Pulse Study suggest consumers are becoming more deliberate in how they borrow, spend and manage their money.
Household financial performance strengthened and income expectations remained positive. At the same time, South Africans continue to face ongoing economic pressures, indicating that consumers are balancing improving financial sentiment with careful financial decision making.
Half (50%) of South Africans said their household finances were better than planned at this point in 2026, up from 43% in Q2 2026. Meanwhile, the proportion of consumers who said their finances were worse than planned fell to 34%, down from 38% one year ago. Financial optimism also improved with 73% of consumers expressing optimism about their household finances in the next 12 months, compared with 68% a year ago.
Improvements in reported household finances and future income expectations were accompanied by positive income trends. More than four in ten consumers (41%) reported an increase in household income over the last three months, while only 16% experienced a decline. Looking ahead, nearly eight in ten consumers (79%) expect their income to increase over the coming year, up from 75% a year ago.
According to Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion Africa, the findings indicate that consumers are reporting stronger household financial outlooks and income expectations, while remaining mindful of ongoing economic pressures.
“What stands out this quarter is that consumers appear to be taking a more considered approach to managing their finances. The findings indicate that consumers are paying close attention to their household budgets, inflation, borrowing costs and spending habits. While many report improved household finances and income expectations, affordability and cost-of-living concerns remain an important consideration.”
Despite improved financial sentiment, South Africans remain acutely aware of ongoing cost-of-living pressures. Almost all respondents (97%) said they remain concerned about inflation, while 79% ranked inflation for everyday goods among the top three concerns affecting their household finances for the next six months. Although more consumers now feel their income is keeping pace with inflation, the cost of living continues to place pressure on household budgets.
The study found that 43% of consumers plan to apply for new credit or refinance existing products over the next year, up from 38% a year ago, while 58% believe they would be approved if they needed access to credit, up from 49% a year ago. Perception of access to credit has improved, with 51% saying they have sufficient access to credit products, up from 42% a year ago.
Consumers are, however, approaching borrowing more selectively. More than half (52%) considered applying for new credit or refinancing but ultimately chose not to proceed, up from 42% a year ago. Among these consumers, the cost of credit was the leading reason for not proceeding, according to 34% of those surveyed. More than nine in ten (92%) said rising interest rates affect whether they will apply for credit in the next 12 months. While these findings were captured before the South African Reserve Bank increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, they highlight that borrowing costs were already a significant consideration for consumers and may become an even more important factor in credit decision-making going forward.
“Consumers are demonstrating a more measured approach to borrowing. Rather than simply seeking access to credit, many are carefully evaluating whether a product meets their financial needs and circumstances. This creates an opportunity for lenders to align products, pricing and experiences more closely with evolving consumer expectations,” said Hatea.
Demand for credit remains broad-based, with the greatest proportion of consumers planning to apply for a new credit card (33%), a new car loan or lease (27%) or buy now, pay later services (25%). Consumers continue to embrace digital financial services, with nearly half (49%) reporting using websites or apps to send or receive money. With the use of digital financial services comes expectations around speed and convenience, and 86% of consumers said that real-time approval is important when applying for digital loans.
The study also points to signs of improving financial resilience. Fewer consumers expect to miss payments on bills or loans (32%, down four percentage points year-over-year), more said they’re paying down debt faster (34%, compared to 32% a year ago), and nearly one-third reported contributing more to emergency savings or stokvels (31%, up three percentage points year-over-year).
As digital adoption continues to increase, trust and security remain important considerations. Six in ten (60%) reported being targeted by email, online, phone call or text message fraud in the last three months, with 11% saying they fell victim to it. In addition, 29% said they were notified that their personal or account information had been compromised in a data breach in the last three months.
“South Africans continue to operate in a challenging economic environment, but the data points to a consumer that is becoming increasingly informed, resilient and deliberate in their financial choices. While reported household financial outlooks and income expectations have improved, affordability, value and long-term financial sustainability remain important considerations. Understanding these evolving consumer behaviours will be critical for organisations seeking to build trust and deliver products and services that meet consumers’ needs,” concluded Hatea.
Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.
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Affordability Reshapes South Africa’s Credit Market in Q2 2026
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- Despite significant growth in new vehicle sales during the quarter, vehicle asset finance growth slowed as consumers shifted focus to long-term affordability rather than simply accessing credit
- Bank and non-bank personal loan markets continued to grow, with distinct performance outcomes
As many South Africans continue to feel the pressure of rising living costs, affordability is affecting popular credit products in diverse ways as consumers adapt their borrowing strategies rather than stepping away from credit altogether. The latest TransUnion Q2 2026 South Africa Industry Insights Report shows that households are becoming more selective about how they borrow, with consumers prioritising products that align with their needs while carefully managing affordability.
Acquisition Slowed as Portfolio Outcomes Diverged
Growth in retail credit originations (new accounts opened) declined across all major retail lending products during the quarter. New clothing accounts fell 7.8% year-over-year (YoY), retail instalment originations declined 10.3%, and retail revolving originations decreased 12.2%.
While all three credit products experienced lower new account volumes, the underlying customer and portfolio trends across these products tell very different stories.
Despite new account acquisition falling significantly, the clothing account portfolio continued to demonstrate stability, supported by existing customer relationships. Total credit lines increased by 12.4% YoY, outpacing balance growth of 8.0% YoY. This may reflect ongoing line management among existing customers, while the slower increase in balances suggests that consumers are using the additional capacity selectively, using only the credit they need to support day-to-day consumption in a challenging economic environment.
Clothing account performance improved slightly, with serious account-level delinquency (3+ months in arrears, or MIA) decreasing by eight basis points (bps) YoY to 26.5%. However, balance-level delinquency deteriorated by 67 bps, suggesting that repayment pressure is becoming more concentrated among customers carrying larger balances.
The retail revolving credit segment followed a different trajectory. Account volumes declined by 4.5%, the number of active consumers fell 4.4% YoY and outstanding balances decreased 1.9% YoY, indicating continued market contraction. Despite weaker acquisition (origination volumes dropped by 12.2% YoY) and lower participation, performance improved materially, with account-level delinquencies improving by 135 bps YoY to 16.0%. These trends suggest that while the portfolio may be shrinking in size, quality has improved, as tighter lending and portfolio rationalisation have yielded a more resilient borrower base.
Retail instalment lending presented yet another picture. Origination volumes declined by 10.3% YoY and the number of consumers carrying balances fell by 13.9% YoY, yet outstanding balances increased by 12.0% YoY and average balances rose by 9.8% YoY. Serious delinquency deteriorated across all measures: account-level delinquency increased by 146 bps, with similar deterioration for consumer-level and balance level delinquency, pointing to mounting repayment pressure among remaining borrowers.
For lenders, the combination of fewer consumers, higher average balances and broad-based delinquency deterioration reinforces the need to assess affordability carefully at origination and monitor existing portfolios closely for emerging signs of stress, particularly among retail instalment customers.
These trends align with findings from TransUnion’s Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Study which showed that 52.7% of consumers said that they had cut discretionary spending in recent months, while nearly two thirds (63.4%) said that they actively sought sales and discounts when shopping, to make ends meet.
“South Africa’s retail credit market continued to fragment during the quarter under review, with clothing, retail revolving and instalment lending following increasingly different trajectories,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “While all three products experienced lower origination activity, the underlying performance and portfolio trends suggest consumers are becoming more selective in how they use retail credit and lenders are responding differently across product types. As a result, retail credit can no longer be viewed as a single market, but rather as a collection of products serving distinct consumer needs and risk profiles, each of which may be experiencing varying levels of financial strain or resilience.”
Consumers’ Mobility Choices Influenced by Long-Term Affordability
Despite new passenger vehicle sales increasing strongly during Q2 2026 according to TransUnion’s Q2 2026 Mobility Insights Report, the vehicle finance market recorded modest growth in Q2 2026, continuing to demonstrate demand despite a more challenging affordability environment. Outstanding balances increased 8.0% YoY, supported by a 5.5% YoY increase in average new loan values, while origination volumes grew modestly by 1.1% YoY. Importantly, credit performance continued to improve, with serious account-level delinquencies decreased by 115 bps, indicating that growth continues to be accompanied by relatively strong portfolio performance.
This resilience is particularly noteworthy given shifts occurring elsewhere in the automotive market. According to the Mobility Insights Report, vehicle purchase intentions softened during Q2 2026, particularly among lower- and middle-income consumers. Affordability, financing costs, fuel efficiency and total cost of ownership have become increasingly important considerations in vehicle selection.
At the same time, consumers showed growing interest in technologies that could reduce long-term ownership costs, with hybrid vehicles emerging as an increasingly attractive alternative for consumers focused on fuel efficiency and operating costs. These developments suggest that demand is being reshaped by more value and affordability considerations, rather than disappearing altogether.
“Consumers are increasingly evaluating not only whether they can finance a vehicle, but also whether they can comfortably own and operate it over the longer term. This shift is likely to influence vehicle choice, financing structures and portfolio composition as the market continues to evolve,” said Hatea.
“Affordability pressures appear to be changing the structure of demand rather than reducing participation in the market. Consumers remain interested in mobility solutions but are becoming more selective about how their needs are met. Lenders that can balance access, affordability and risk management are likely to be best positioned to support sustainable growth in the vehicle finance market,” she added.
Personal Loan Trends Continued to Diverge
South Africa’s personal loan market continued to expand during Q2 2026, but the underlying trends diverged sharply between bank and non-bank lenders. While both segments recorded growth, differences in loan size and credit performance point to distinct borrower needs and risk outcomes.
Bank personal loan originations increased 7.7% YoY, outstanding balances grew 8.9% YoY and average new loan amounts increased 9.2% YoY, indicating continued demand for larger-value unsecured credit. These gains were accompanied by improved performance, with account-level delinquency improved by 194 bps YoY to 26.5% and balance-level delinquency improved by 342 bps YoY to 29.3%. Together, these trends suggest that banks found growth opportunities among consumers with the capacity to manage larger borrowing commitments while maintaining disciplined risk management and portfolio quality.
Non-bank personal loan originations increased by 21.3% YoY and the number of consumers carrying balances rose by 12.7% YoY, significantly outpacing the bank personal loan market. However, average new loan amounts declined by 5.9%, indicating that growth was increasingly concentrated in smaller-ticket lending. This points to continued demand for accessible liquidity and short-term credit solutions, particularly among consumers seeking smaller borrowing amounts.
While this supports broader access to credit, the non-bank personal loan segment also experienced a deterioration in credit performance. Serious account-level delinquency increased by 32 bps YoY to 48.3%, while balance-level delinquency rose by 636 bps YoY to 54.6%.
Lenders across these products target different risk groups: bank personal loan originations have tilted modestly towards subprime over the last two years, reaching 56.6% in Q2 2026 compared to 53.8% two years prior. In contrast, subprime non-bank personal loan customers account for 71.3% in Q2 2026, compared to 68.3% two years prior. This suggests that banks are widening access selectively, without dramatically changing their credit posture, while non-bank lenders are servicing the highest risk, highest need consumers – a dynamic that explains the sharp divergence in delinquency trends across the two segments.
“The contrast between bank and non-bank personal lending shows why growth must be assessed alongside loan value and credit performance,” said Hatea. “Understanding which consumers are driving expansion, and whether that growth is sustainable, is becoming increasingly important for lenders.”
Table 1: Key South African Consumer Credit Market Metrics (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2026)
| Product | YoY origination growth | Serious account-level delinquency rate* | YoY basis points (bps) change in delinquency rate |
| Credit card | -16.8% | 13.1% | +22 bps |
| Bank personal loan | 7.7% | 26.5% | -194 bps |
| Non-bank personal loan | 21.3% | 48.3% | +32 bps |
| Clothing accounts | -7.8% | 26.5% | -8 bps |
| Retail instalment | -10.3% | 27.3% | +146 bps |
| Retail revolving | -12.2% | 16.0% | -135 bps |
| Home loans | -10.5% | 7.2% | -52 bps |
| Vehicle finance | 1.1% | 6.4% | -115 bps |
*Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears
“For lenders, sustainable growth will depend on looking beyond volume to the affordability, risk and repayment capacity behind each credit decision,” said Hatea. “Those that can identify where consumers have the capacity to take on credit responsibly, while responding early to emerging stress, will be best positioned to grow without compromising portfolio quality."
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MPC Rate Hike Intensifies Existing Affordability Pressures on South African Households
TransUnion South Africa says today's decision by the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee to increase interest rates by 25 basis points reflects ongoing concern around inflation risks and inflation expectations. However, the increase comes at a time when many households remain under significant affordability pressure.
The 25-basis-point increase adds to a range of affordability pressures that have steadily eroded purchasing power throughout 2026. While inflation has moderated, many households have yet to experience meaningful relief in their monthly finances.
According to the South African Reserve Bank's June 2026 Quarterly Bulletin, household debt-to-disposable income increased from 61.8% in Q4 2025 to 62.2% in Q1 2026, while debt-service costs remained elevated at 8.4% of disposable income.
Statistics South Africa's Quarterly Labour Force Survey reported that unemployment increased to 33.6% in Q2 2026, while youth unemployment reached 47.4%, highlighting the continued pressure on income growth and household resilience.
According to TransUnion's Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Study, consumers continue to adapt to financial pressure through behaviourial changes. 52.7% of consumers have reduced discretionary spending, 63.4% actively seek discounts and promotions, 44.2% shop at lower-cost retailers, 38.8% expect difficulty paying future bills and loans, while a proportion are drawing down savings and increasingly relying on credit products and flexible payment solutions to manage daily expenses
"Consumers have demonstrated remarkable resilience, but affordability remains fragile and increasingly sensitive to further cost increases. Today's rate increase adds pressure to households already facing elevated fuel costs, transport expenses and ongoing affordability challenges,” says Lee Naik, chief executive officer and regional president, TransUnion Africa. “Consumers are not facing a new problem, but a deepening of pressures that already exist”
TransUnion notes that affordability pressures have intensified through much of 2026. High unemployment continues to constrain household income growth and weaken financial resilience, contributing to cautious spending behaviour and increased demand for credit.
What the Decision Means for Consumers
A 25-basis point increase is expected to raise monthly repayments on a R1 million home loan by approximately R160 to R170 per month, while repayments on a R2 million home loan could increase by around R320 to R340 per month. A consumer financing a R400,000 vehicle could see repayments increase by approximately R65 per month.
Although relatively modest in isolation, these additional costs arrive at a time when households are already contending with high living expenses and tighter budgets.
TransUnion expects consumers to respond by reducing discretionary spending, reassessing household budgets and delaying major purchases, prioritising debt obligations and essential expenses. Demand for flexible credit solutions and financial management tools may also increase as households seek to preserve cash flow.
While vehicle finance and mortgage repayment performance have remained relatively resilient, TransUnion cautions that additional monetary tightening could place renewed pressure on repayment performance, particularly within unsecured lending segments where delinquency rates remain elevated.
"South Africans have shown remarkable resilience, but affordability remains fragile. The increase reinforces the need for consumers to proactively manage debt, preserve liquidity and maintain healthy credit profiles," says Naik.
Looking Ahead
TransUnion expects affordability to remain a defining issue for consumers through the remainder of 2026. Elevated fuel and transport costs, weak economic growth, rising unemployment and pressure on household budgets are expected to continue shaping consumer spending and borrowing behaviour.
Statistics South Africa reported that GDP contracted by 0.2% in Q2 2026, while the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index fell to its lowest level since 2024, reflecting continued pressure on economic activity, employment growth and consumer confidence.
The key risk for households is not any single affordability shock, but the cumulative impact of multiple pressures occurring simultaneously, including fuel inflation, constrained income growth, elevated unemployment and increasing reliance on credit to manage day-to-day expenses.
"Whether rates remain unchanged or increase, the reality for many households remains the same: consumers are focused on preserving cash flow, protecting repayment performance and managing essential expenses in a challenging economic environment," says Naik. "Affordability will continue to shape how South Africans spend, save and borrow in the months ahead."
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