Evaluating national leaders is a difficult task. Citizens often judge presidents and prime ministers by simple measures like economic growth during their term, or personal character. However, these metrics are misleading and ignore the actual mechanics of political power.
I am a researcher in public policy and politics. My recent analysis offers a fresh four-dimensional framework to evaluate presidential leadership.
This model examines how leaders handle tensions between:
- symbolic authority and executive decision-making
- heading a party and running a state
- foreign policy and domestic pressures
- formal authority and informal power networks.
In each dimension there are opportunities for a skilled president to promote synergies. But there is also a risk of conflict and contradiction. I have previously used this framework to explore Nelson Mandela’s presidency.
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Applying this framework to Thabo Mbeki, who governed South Africa as president from 1999 to 2008, reveals a complex legacy. Mbeki was the country’s second post-apartheid president after Mandela. He was succeeded by Kgalema Motlanthe, who served briefly before Jacob Zuma became president in 2009.
I found that Mbeki was a skilled and policy-focused president who introduced reforms that strengthened South African governance. However, his leadership contributed to institutional weaknesses that emerged more fully after he left office.
He concentrated power and blurred the line between the ruling party and the state. Systems of political appointments and influence expanded during his presidency. These systems later made state capture easier – private financial interests could corrupt public institutions to steal public resources.
Running government vs uniting the nation
South Africa has a hybrid parliamentary system with some presidential features. The national assembly elects a president rather than a prime minister. This figure combines two roles: acting as head of government – managing cabinet leaders of national executive departments – and as a head of state charged with uniting the nation.
Mbeki managed the head of government role with great technical skill.
He centralised strategic planning within the presidency and personally drove the creation of a modern national treasury. Working with finance minister Trevor Manuel, Mbeki stabilised the economy (blessed with favourable global conditions). Economic growth averaged over 4% annually, up from less than 3% under Mandela. His administration reduced public debt, expanded infrastructure and extended welfare grants to millions of poor citizens.
However, Mbeki failed as a unifying head of state during the health crisis of HIV and Aids. Rather than bringing people together to fight the epidemic, he rejected scientific consensus on the cause of the disease. He questioned the safety of life-saving antiretroviral medication and delayed public distribution. One study estimated that earlier access to antiretroviral treatment would have saved over 300,000 lives.
Mbeki held his position despite intense public protest and global condemnation. His stance demonstrated a failure to provide national leadership when it was most needed.
Serving the party vs strengthening the state
The second structural tension involves the divide between the ruling party and state administration.
Mbeki rose through the exiled ranks of the African National Congress (ANC). After taking power in 1994, the party struggled to turn a political organisation into a party of government. At its 1997 national conference, the party adopted a policy document on its “strategy and tactics”. The document described constitutional democracy as an interim step towards a broader national democratic revolution.
To secure control, the party started using a “cadre deployment” policy that bore Mbeki’s intellectual imprint. Cadre deployment meant placing loyal party members into top positions across government departments, municipalities and state companies. It severely damaged state capacity. Civil servants became answerable to party bosses rather than professional standards.
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A study on party dominance notes that long-ruling party tenure erodes public accountability. Mbeki centralised policy inside his personal office and suppressed party dissent. When he tried to retain party control in 2007, the party base rejected his ambition for an additional term and voted him out of office.
Leading abroad vs domestic interests
The third tension pits international diplomacy against domestic priorities. Mbeki reshaped foreign policy around pan-Africanism, a political idea promoting African economic unity and self-reliance.
Mbeki centralised foreign relations within the presidency. He helped create the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad), a plan to integrate African economies fully into the global economy. He also led the transformation of the Organisation of African Unity into the African Union.
He built strong diplomatic ties with developing nations across the global south, most strikingly through the India-Brazil-South Africa Dialogue Forum. These efforts expanded international trade and secured South Africa a non-permanent seat on the United Nations security council.
Yet Mbeki’s foreign policy created severe problems at home through his response to neighbouring Zimbabwe. As Zimbabwe suffered political repression and economic collapse, Mbeki adopted quiet diplomacy. This relied on private persuasion rather than public criticism.
Mbeki protected President Robert Mugabe and endorsed flawed Zimbabwean elections. This policy shielded a repressive regime. The later collapse of Zimbabwe’s economy forced millions of desperate citizens into South Africa, fuelling violent xenophobia after Mbeki had left office.
Formal vs informal influence
The final tension lies between formal legal powers and informal networks of influence.
The South African constitution grants the president expansive appointment powers over cabinet ministers, judges, police chiefs and tax officials. Mbeki used these powers to place loyalists across critical state agencies.
At the same time, rising campaign costs forced the ruling party to seek private funding. Under Mbeki, fundraising events sold corporate access to government ministers in exchange for party donations. This helped the party fund effective participation in national elections but compromised the integrity of government decisions.
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South Africa’s police serve the ANC insiders, not the people: here’s how it happened
Mbeki also expanded a variant of Black Economic Empowerment, a state policy that gave Black citizens ownership stakes in businesses to redress apartheid inequality. Established corporations used the policy to grant shares to politically connected individuals in exchange for influence in government.
One study on economic transformation regimes found that empowerment policies can turn into patronage networks for ruling elites. The African National Congress even established its own investment firm, Chancellor House, which won multibillion-rand state contracts.
While Mbeki personally faced no corruption charges, his administration built a system of informal patronage and money politics. This system created an architecture of dysfunction that enabled widespread state capture under his successor, Zuma.
Mbeki’s mixed legacy
Evaluating presidential leadership requires looking beyond personal character or short-term economic prosperity.
Mbeki proved himself a highly capable administrative manager. He maintained fiscal discipline and expanded South African influence across the continent. Yet his centralising leadership style, party deployment policies and informal patronage networks weakened democratic institutions.
Anthony Michael Butler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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