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South Africans Under Strain as Inflation Persists
- 79% of South Africans ranked inflation among their top three household financial concerns, up from 74% a year ago
- Financial optimism fell to 66% from 71% in Q2 2025, while 39% expect to miss at least one current bill or loan repayment
- 92% view access to credit as important, but only 36% plan to apply for new credit or refinance, while 45% abandoned applications
South African consumers are facing sustained financial strain, with nearly four in ten (39%) expecting to miss at least one bill or loan repayment, according to TransUnion’s Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Study (CPS). Persistently high inflation continues to reshape how households spend, borrow and save, driving more cautious financial behaviour and softer optimism.
The findings point to a consumer environment marked less by recovery and more by ongoing adjustment. While many households remain financially active, their ability to absorb additional pressure is narrowing, with affordability constraints increasingly shaping everyday decisions.
“Consumers are still managing, but the margin for error is shrinking,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Even modest increases in essential costs are forcing difficult trade-offs, which is reflected in lower confidence and more cautious credit behaviour.”
Financial Pressure Persists as Optimism Declines
Household finances remain under pressure, with mixed signals pointing to continued strain. In Q2 2026, 43% of South Africans said their household finances were better than planned, down slightly from 44% in Q2 2025. At the same time, 40% said their finances were worse than planned, pointing to persistent pressure rather than a clear recovery trend.
Forward-looking sentiment softened more noticeably. Financial optimism declined to 66%, down from 71% in Q2 2025, while pessimism increased to 19% from 15%. Income expectations also weakened, with 70% of consumers expecting their household income to increase over the next 12 months, compared to 75% a year ago.
A key driver of this shift is the widening gap between income growth and rising living costs. Only 37% of consumers believed their income was keeping up with inflation, while 41% disagreed. Inflation for everyday goods, including groceries and fuel, remained the dominant household concern, ranking among the top three worries for 79% of respondents.
This imbalance is increasingly affecting liquidity, which underscores the extent to which cost pressure continues to affect monthly cash flow and raise the risk of missed payments.
“Inflation remains the single biggest pressure point for households. Even where incomes are rising, essential costs quickly absorb that relief. This makes budgeting discipline and financial awareness more important, because households need to know where they can adjust when pressure rises,” said Hatea.
Households Cut Discretionary Spend to Stay Afloat
In response, South Africans are making practical adjustments to their household budgets. More than half of consumers (53%) said they had cut back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel, and entertainment over the past three months. A further 28% cancelled subscriptions or memberships, while 24% cancelled or reduced digital services such as wireless, cable TV, or internet.
Debt and savings behaviour also reflect caution. Around 32% of consumers said they had paid down debt faster, 27% saved more in an emergency fund or stokvel, and 20% saved more for retirement. At the same time, 14% cut back on retirement savings, 14% increased their use of available credit, and 13% used their retirement savings, signalling that financial resilience is uneven and for some, deteriorating.
Looking ahead, consumers expect essential categories to remain under pressure. Over the next three months, 37% expect their spending on bills and loans to increase, while 33% expect higher spending on medical care and services. Around 36% expect to increase contributions to retirement funds or investments, although 16% expect to decrease spending in that category.
“These findings show how carefully households are trying to manage trade-offs. Some consumers are still building buffers and paying down debt, while others are drawing on savings or credit to get through the month. That is why the broader picture is one of sustained financial adjustment rather than simple improvement,” said Hatea.
Consumers Want Credit but Few Are Willing to Apply
Credit remains a critical financial tool, but engagement is becoming more selective. The study found that 92% of South Africans view access to credit and lending products as important to achieving their financial goals, unchanged from a year ago. Perceptions of access improved, with 45% believing they have sufficient access to credit, up from 38% in Q2 2025. Around half (50%) of consumers believe they would be approved if they applied.
However, this confidence is not translating into increased demand. Only 36% plan to apply for new credit or refinance existing credit in the next 12 months, broadly unchanged year-over-year (YoY). Among those who considered applying for credit or refinancing, 45% ultimately abandoned their plans.
Cost remains the largest barrier, cited by 30% of consumers who abandoned applications. Credit history was cited by 23%, while 22% pointed to income or employment status. This suggests that while consumers still recognise the importance of credit, many remain cautious about taking on new commitments.
“Credit demand has not disappeared, but consumers are becoming more selective about the obligations they take on. For many households, access is not only about whether credit is available. It is also about whether the cost, repayment terms and approval process feel manageable,” said Hatea.
Where consumers do plan to apply, demand is shifting toward shorter-term and more flexible products. Among those planning new credit or refinancing activity, 34% intend to apply for a new personal loan, up from the previous quarter, while 29% plan to apply for a new credit card. A further 27% plan to use buy now, pay later services.
Fraud Exposure Rising as Digital Use Expands
Digital channels are also playing an increasingly important role in financial participation. Of the 30% who said they used digital banking services, around 46% reported using a digital bank, 56% used buy now, pay later services, and 23% engaged with digital or FinTech providers. This points to continued demand for speed and convenience, alongside the need for clear, responsible credit information.
As digital financial activity grows, identity protection remains an important concern. Around 56% of consumers reported being targeted by online, email, phone call, or text message fraud attempts in the past three months.
Among those targeted, the most common schemes were vishing (34%), smishing (33%), and phishing (31%). The study also found that 26% of consumers had been notified in the past three months that details about their identity or online accounts had been compromised in a data breach.
Consumers are taking some protective steps. In the past 60 days, 53% changed passwords because of cybersecurity concerns, 37% checked their credit reports, and 12% purchased internet security, anti-virus, or anti-malware protection. Yet uncertainty remains a barrier. Among consumers who took no action despite cybersecurity concerns, 56% said they were overwhelmed by what to do.
“As digital financial participation increases, security becomes a core part of financial confidence. Consumers need clear, practical guidance on how to protect their information and respond effectively when risks arise,” said Hatea.
Consumers Seek Control Amid Ongoing Financial Strain
Despite ongoing challenges, South African consumers remain financially engaged and active. Around 34% monitor their credit reports monthly, 13% weekly, and 6% daily. More than half (52%) believe their credit score would improve if businesses used information not found on standard credit reports, such as rental payments, short-term loan history, and buy now, pay later loans.
This reflects a broader shift toward financial visibility, as consumers look for tools and information to better manage their financial position in an uncertain environment.
The Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Study highlights a market that is resilient but increasingly constrained. Households are adjusting spending, managing debt carefully, and seeking greater control, but persistent cost pressures are testing their capacity to absorb shocks.
“Consumers are doing their best to stay in control in a difficult environment,” Hatea concluded. “For lenders and financial service providers, the opportunity lies in supporting that effort, through transparent pricing, responsible access to credit, and tools that help consumers anticipate and manage financial stress before it escalates.”.
Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.
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South African Credit Trends Diverge as Consumers Navigate Affordability Pressures in Q1 2026
- Personal loans markets continue to split in opposing directions, highlighting clear contrasts between bank and non-bank portfolios
- Credit cards reflect growing reliance on credit, alongside increasing signs of repayment pressure
- Vehicle asset finance remains resilient, with momentum shifting toward new vehicles purchases
South African consumers are reshaping how they access and use credit as affordability pressures persist, according to TransUnion’s Q1 2026 South Africa Industry Insights Report. The report’s findings show that credit demand remained resilient, but diverging risk dynamics are increasingly evident across products and providers. Consumers are relying more heavily on existing credit facilities while also shifting toward more accessible lending options that are typically employed by higher risk borrowers to manage short-term liquidity needs.
Diverging Trends in Bank and Non-Bank Personal Loans
Personal loan markets continued to show distinctly different trajectories during the quarter. Bank personal loan originations recorded modest growth of 2.5% YoY, while the number of active accounts increased by 1.4% over the same period. Looking below this headline growth reveals a shift in lending mix by borrower risk profiles, with below-prime originations rising by 5.0% while prime and above segments declined by 3.8%. Gen Z participation also increased significantly, with originations among this segment rising 21% YoY, bringing their share to 23% (up from 19.5% in Q1 2025) of total bank personal loan originations.
Credit performance improved in the bank personal loan segment, as account-level delinquencies (3+ months in arrears, or MIA) decreased by 256 basis points to 26.7%. This reflects tighter underwriting, portfolio stabilisation, and improved repayment behaviour following earlier periods of financial stress.
In contrast, non-bank personal loans continued to expand rapidly. Originations grew by 19.0% YoY, while active accounts increased by 27.6%. This growth was driven largely by younger consumers, with Gen Z accounting for 53% of originations in the quarter.
At the same time, lending dynamics for non-bank personal loans have evolved. Declining average loan sizes and balances point to a shift toward smaller value and more frequent borrowing patterns. This reflects a combination of lender appetite for smaller, shorter-term exposure and continued consumer demand for accessible liquidity, with these products increasingly used to support short-term cash flow needs rather than larger, structured borrowing.
However, this rapid growth has been accompanied by rising risk. Account-level delinquencies increased by 193 bps to 49.8%, with delinquency levels now approaching half of all active non-bank personal loans. This highlights elevated stress within the segment and points to increasing pressure among higher-risk borrowers.
“Bank personal loans are entering a more stable phase characterised by controlled growth, targeted expansion into younger and moderate-risk segments and improved credit performance,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “While non-bank personal loans are expanding financial inclusion and access to liquidity, this growth is being driven by higher-risk and more financially vulnerable segments experiencing rising credit stress, raising important considerations around sustainability and risk management.”
Reliance on Credit Cards Increased as Repayment Pressure Grew
The credit card market also showed a clear shift in growth dynamics, with balance expansion increasingly driven by existing accounts rather than new cards issuance. Originations volume declined by 9.5% YoY, alongside a 4.1% YoY reduction in average credit limits, reflecting a more cautious lending environment.
Despite this, outstanding balances grew by 8.8% YoY, supported by increased utilisation as well as emerging repayment pressure which reduced card repayment levels. The number of active consumers rose by 6.4%, while average balances per account increased by 2.5%.
Delinquencies also rose YoY, with account-level delinquencies increasing by 66 basis points to 13.6%, while delinquent balances increased by 16% YoY. As a consequence of increased delinquencies, lower repayment levels contributed to the rise in total account balances over the past year.
“While increased utilisation is contributing to balance growth, the faster rise in delinquent balances indicates that repayment pressure is becoming a more persistent driver,” said Hatea. “Credit cards are playing a dual role in the current environment. They are both a liquidity tool, supporting short-term cash flow needs, and a channel where financial pressure is becoming more visible through rising delinquency.”
Resilient Demand for Vehicle Asset Finance Supported by Increased Access to New Vehicles
Vehicle finance continued to demonstrate steady growth, supported by strong participation from younger consumers. Gen Z and Millennials now account for two-thirds (66%) of all originations, which increased by 11.6% YoY. This reflects sustained demand for mobility while highlighting the growing role that first-time and early-life stage borrowers play in sustaining market activity.
At the same time, there is a clear shift in the composition of financing, with the ratio of used to new vehicles declining to 0.93. This indicates that more new vehicles are now being financed than used, structurally elevating average origination values. Notably, this trend occurred even as more affordable new entrants, particularly Chinese brands, gained traction in the market, with one in five vehicles sold now coming from these manufacturers.
On the risk side, subprime originations have increased significantly, rising by over 33.5% YoY and now accounting for a quarter (25%) of all new vehicle finance. This suggests that growth is increasingly being driven by higher-risk segments, as lenders balance expansion with the need to sustain volumes.
Despite this increase in borrowing by riskier consumers, repayment performance improved, with account-level 3+ MIA delinquencies declining by 80 bps to 7.1%, indicating relatively strong borrower management of vehicle loans.
“Overall, the vehicle asset finance market reflects a complex but resilient environment. Demand remains strong, supported by younger consumers and improved access to new vehicles. However, rising exposure to higher-risk borrowers and increasing loan sizes will require enhanced early risk detection tools going forward to enable mobility and inclusion,” said Hatea.
Table 1: Key South African Consumer Credit Market Metrics (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026)
|
Product |
YoY origination growth |
Serious account-level delinquency rate* |
YoY basis points (bps) change in delinquency rate |
| Credit card |
-9.5% |
13.6% |
+66 bps |
| Bank personal loan |
2.5% |
26.7% |
-256 bps |
| Non-bank personal loan |
19.0% |
49.8% |
+193 bps |
| Clothing accounts |
11.0% |
26.2% |
-1 bps |
| Retail instalment |
-1.7% |
26.6% |
-89 bps |
| Retail revolving |
-7.1% |
16.8% |
-126 bps |
| Home loans |
11.4% |
7.7% |
+10 bps |
| Vehicle finance |
11.6% |
7.1% |
-80 bps |
*Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears
“South Africa’s Q1 2026 insights highlight a credit landscape that remains active but increasingly segmented. While demand for credit persists, affordability constraints are reshaping how consumers borrow, with greater reliance on short-term liquidity and higher-risk products,” said Hatea. “These trends underscore the need for lenders to balance growth with prudent risk management while supporting sustainable access to credit across the market.”
Decay of Tshwane’s Wastewater Treatment Works Can No Longer Be Swept Under the Rug
Tshwane Metro officials can no longer sweep the collapse of the Metro’s waste water treatment works under the rug. It jeopardises residents’ health and violates environmental laws. According to a quarterly oversight report by the Department of Utilities, recently tabled to the Council, it is evident that the main waste water treatment works have continued […]
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Blaming Migrants Ignores the Real Causes of South Africa’s Economic Crisis
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Gauteng Is in the Midst of a Financial and Economic Crisis
Gauteng finds itself in the middle of a serious financial and economic crisis. The Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) issued this warning yesterday during the debate on the Gauteng Treasury’s 2026/27 budget. This crisis is reflected in the province’s rising unemployment rate. By contrast, Elon Musk’s SpaceX was listed last Friday in what became the […]
The post Gauteng is in the midst of a financial and economic crisis appeared first on Freedom Front Plus.
Morocco’s Hidden History: Archaeology, DNA and Carbon Dating Rewrite the Story of the Ancient World
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The post Gauteng’s environment in crisis; time for accountability and decisive action appeared first on Freedom Front Plus.
South Africa’s Vehicle Market Proves Resilient as Affordability Reshapes Demand
- Passenger vehicle sales reached 114,517 units in Q1 2026, with year-on-year growth moderating to 12.6%
- Chinese brands account for more than 19% of new passenger and light commercial vehicle sales nationally
- Hybrid vehicle interest rose to 39%, reinforcing hybrids as South Africa’s primary pathway in the shift toward electrified vehicles
South Africa’s passenger vehicle market remained resilient in the first quarter of 2026, but demand is evolving. Rising affordability pressures, higher fuel costs, the growth of Chinese brands and shifting powertrain preferences are reshaping the automotive landscape.
According to TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Mobility Insights Report, passenger vehicle sales reached 114,517 units in Q1 2026, slightly higher than the 114,246 units recorded in Q4 2025. Year-on-year (YoY) growth eased to 12.6%, down from the stronger performance seen during parts of 2025, but demand remained elevated despite a more uncertain macroeconomic environment.
A Stronger Start, But Growing External Pressures
The report, which provides a first quarter overview, indicates that South Africa entered 2026 on a stronger economic footing. This was supported by easing inflation, lower interest rates over the previous year, reduced load-shedding, and improved financial conditions.
However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated oil price shock have heightened downside risks. In March 2026, inflation increased from 3.1% to 4.0% in April 2026, while the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently raised the prime lending rate by 25-basis points in May 2026. Combined with higher fuel and transport costs, these factors are expected to place renewed pressure on affordability and consumer spending.
“Vehicle demand has not collapsed, but the market is moving into a more selective phase,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Consumers are still buying vehicles, but affordability is no longer only about the purchase price. Fuel costs, financing costs, insurance, servicing, and total cost of ownership are becoming central to the decision.”
Residual Value and the True Cost of Ownership
The report found that residual values are becoming an increasingly important component of vehicle affordability. As finance terms extend beyond six years for many buyers, depreciation and resale performance play a growing role in ownership economics, giving brands that retain value more effectively a competitive advantage.
The shift towards longer financing terms and the use of balloon structures reflects a growing focus on monthly affordability and cash-flow flexibility. However, this trend also increases exposure to residual value risk. Where vehicle values underperform expectations, consumers may face refinancing pressure or negative equity at trade-in, making used vehicle market performance an increasingly critical consideration.
Chinese Brands Reshape the Competitive Landscape
One of the most notable structural shifts is the continued rise of Chinese automotive brands. Chinese car sales grew by 75% YoY in Q1 2026, significantly outpacing traditional OEM growth of 2% and the broader passenger and light commercial vehicle (LCV) market growth of 12.7%. As a result, Chinese brands accounted for more than 19% of new passenger and LCV sales nationally, meaning nearly one in five new vehicles sold in South Africa was from a Chinese manufacturer in Q1 2026.
The shift is no longer driven solely by entry-level pricing. Chinese brands are increasingly competing on technology, features, fuel efficiency, range, warranty offerings, and perceived long-term value. On a combined portfolio basis, Chery Group, including Chery, Jetour, Omoda, and Jaecoo, recorded combined sales of 16,094 units in Q1 2026, positioning itself as a top three automotive player.
“Chinese brands have moved beyond the role of price disruptors. They are becoming structural industry players, influencing dealer networks, financing ecosystems, ownership perceptions, and the wider discussion around localisation and industrial competitiveness,” said Hatea.
Diverging Trends Across New and Used Markets
The new and used vehicle markets continued to show differing trends. NaTIS data indicates that new vehicle registrations increased by 11.6% YoY in Q1 2026, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. In contrast, used vehicle registrations increased by 2.6%, suggesting a modest recovery in the secondary market, although it still trails the stronger momentum seen in new vehicle sales.
The used-to-new registration ratio declined to 2.3 in Q1 2026, the lowest level recorded over the reporting period. While used vehicles still make up the majority at 69% of total registrations, the share of new vehicles has risen to 31%, up from 23% in Q4 2025. This shift has been supported by favourable pricing dynamics, with new vehicle inflation falling to 0.8%, while used vehicle prices remained in deflation at -1.3%.
Confidence Rises, But Caution Remains
Dealer sentiment also reflects the stronger demand environment. New vehicle dealer confidence increased to 67 in Q1 2026, its highest level in 13 years. However, the report cautions that increasing fuel costs, inflation risk, and rising operating expenses could create more challenging conditions in the quarters ahead.
Forward-looking consumer data remains constructive. TransUnion’s Consumer Pulse Survey found that consumers likely to purchase a vehicle in the next few months increased from 19% in Q4 2025 to 22% in Q1 2026. Short-term purchase intent is strongest amongst younger consumers, with 26% of Gen Z and 24% of Millennials indicating plans to buy.
A Gradual Shift in Powertrain Preferences
Powertrain preferences are also evolving. Internal combustion engine vehicles remain the most popular choice, preferred by 49% of consumers in Q1 2026. However, interest in hybrid electric vehicles has grown significantly to 39%, up from 30% in Q4 2025, making hybrids the leading electrified option. Interest in both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids also increased, with each reaching 26%.
“Hybrids are emerging as a practical transition pathway for South African consumers. They offer fuel savings and lower running costs without full dependence on charging infrastructure, which makes them relevant in a market where affordability and operating certainty remain critical,” said Hatea.
A Market Entering Its Next Phase
While domestic demand continues to support the industry, passenger vehicle exports remain under pressure amid trade uncertainty, geopolitical disruption, protectionism, and changing decarbonisation requirements.
“The South African automotive market is not reverting to its previous structure. The next phase will be defined by affordability, value, access to finance and how effectively industry players respond to evolving consumer behaviour,” said Hatea.
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Xenophobic Violence Turns Deadly in the Western Cape
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South Africa Had the Highest Rate of Suspected Digital Fraud Among African Countries Analysed
- Among South Africans who said they lost money to digital fraud, one-third (33%) reported the losses were from third-party scams on legitimate ecommerce sites
- The highest rate of suspected digital fraud in the consumer lifecycle from South Africa occurred at account login in 2025
- Among sectors analysed, attempted transactions from South Africa with government departments were the most at risk of suspected digital fraud last year
South Africa had the highest rate of suspected digital fraud[1] among African countries analysed, with 3.0% of transactions involving consumers in South Africa being suspected of digital fraud during 2025 – slightly below the global average of 3.8%.
In 2025, the median reported fraud loss among South African consumers who said that they had lost funds to digital fraud (email, online, phone call and text messages) in the previous year, was R11,055 – the second highest in Africa, after Kenya, and well below the global median of R27,879.[2]
These are among the findings in the TransUnion H1 2026 Update: Top Fraud Trends report, which shows that South Africa’s digital fraud landscape has become more complex, with generative AI likely accelerating the scale and sophistication of criminal activity. This has enabled fraudsters to target both consumers and businesses with greater precision and speed.
South African consumers are increasingly facing co-ordinated, identity-driven and cross-channel attacks similar to those seen in mature digital economies. As a result, digital fraud has shifted deeper into the consumer journey: one third (33%) of South African consumers who said they lost money from digital fraud in the last year reported those losses stemmed from third-party seller scams on legitimate ecommerce platforms. This indicates that losses are not occurring because consumers transacted in a suspect or unsafe environment – but because fraudsters successfully embedded themselves into environments that appeared credible, familiar and trusted.
“This signals a market where criminals are exploiting established trust, active accounts and verified digital relationships, and is a clear break from global fraud patterns typically dominated by phishing and vishing – fraudulent phone calls or voice messages designed to deceive consumers into sharing sensitive information or sending money,” said Amritha Reddy, senior director of fraud product management TransUnion Africa. “In South Africa, fraudsters succeed where trust is already established, particularly inside mainstream digital platforms where consumers reasonably expect safety and legitimacy.”
“Criminals are weaponising both consumer trust and emerging technologies,” said Reddy. “As GenAI accelerates the sophistication and scale of criminal operations, the threat landscape is evolving faster than ever for consumers and businesses. Addressing this requires a new generation of identity centric defences that combine advanced analytics, adaptive authentication and multilayered digital fraud detection. Organisations must match fraudsters’ technological innovation to stay ahead of rapidly changing schemes.”
Chart 1: Most Prominent Cause of Fraud Loss
Percentage reporting losing money to these schemes among South Africans who said they lost funds from digital fraud in the last year.
| Type of Fraud | Percentage of Consumers Reporting Losing Money to Fraud Type Among Those Who Said They Lost Money to Fraud in the Last Year |
| Third-party seller scams on legitimate ecommerce sites |
33% |
| Social engineering |
26% |
| Account takeover |
24% |
| Stolen credit card or fraudulent charges |
24% |
| Money mule |
23% |
| Identity theft |
22% |
| Phishing (fraudulent emails, websites, social posts, QR codes, etc. meant to steal personal information) |
21% |
| Smishing (fraudulent text messages meant to steal personal information) |
19% |
| Vishing (fraudulent phone calls or voice messages meant to steal personal information) |
16% |
| Unemployment benefits |
15% |
Source: TransUnion consumer survey
Most Fraud Attempts Occur at Account Login
The suspected digital fraud rate for attempted transactions where the consumer was in South Africa declined from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025, a trend also observed globally. Nevertheless, this decrease does not necessarily indicate reduced criminal activity; rather, it may reflect a shift toward AI-enabled tactics designed to maximise return on investment.
South Africa is one of the few markets where the highest rate of suspected digital fraud attempts* happen at account login, with 3.0.% of account login attempts being flagged as potentially fraudulent, compared to 2.4% at account creation and 0.7% of financial transactions. This trend suggests that attackers are increasingly trying to compromise existing accounts, in contrast to other countries globally where new account creation is a key focus for fraudsters.
“This inversion tells a powerful story that criminals in South Africa are now targeting access using compromised credentials, SIM-swap-enabled entry and social engineering to take over existing accounts,” said Reddy. “This means that vendors and financial institutions need to expand their fraud prevention strategies beyond the new customer onboarding phase, continuing to implement verification throughout the consumer lifecycle – but without the unnecessary friction that will see genuine consumers seeking alternative sites.”
Findings from the survey also show that consumers most preferred top feature when choosing whom to transact with online is confidence that their personal data is secure, with 85% of respondents saying it was very important. This was followed by an easy payment process (80%) and ease of filling out forms or applications (72%).
“The fact that security is the top reported feature shows that consumers are willing to accept friction when completing digital transactions, provided it’s clearly linked to protection,” Reddy said. “As a result, security in South Africa is evolving beyond compliance and emerging as a key driver of brand trust and differentiation.”
Government Sector Most Affected by Digital Fraud Attempts
Suspected digital fraud attempts across Africa[3] in 2025 showed fraudsters focusing on very different industries depending on the country, reflecting local digital behaviours and opportunity points. Globally, the most vulnerable industry was video gaming, where 12.8% of transactions were suspected of digital fraud attempts. Across African countries analysed, gaming also recorded the highest suspected digital fraud rate, driven by Kenya, where 15.6% of gaming transactions were flagged – the highest rate observed for any industry in Africa.
In South Africa, the rate of suspected digital fraud where the consumer was in the country was the most prevalent among government transactions, at 12.5%, highlighting risks tied to public-sector digitalisation.
“Digitalisation has improved access to public services, but it has also created new risks for fraud,” said Reddy. “Fraudsters are leveraging official government branding and service-related messages to impersonate the state and deceive citizens.”
Chart 2: Suspected Digital Fraud Attempts in South Africa, by Sector
| Industry |
Suspected Digital Fraud Attempt Rate 2025 |
Change in volume of suspected digital fraud attempts from 2024 to 2025 |
| Government |
12.5% |
+46% |
| Gaming (online sports betting, poker, etc.) |
11.5% |
+124% |
| Insurance |
7.8% |
+32% |
| Video gaming |
5.5% |
-29% |
| Financial services |
5.3% |
+16% |
| Communities (online dating, forums etc.) |
3.7% |
-42% |
| Logistics |
1.9% |
-98% |
| Retail |
1.1% |
-61% |
| Telecommunications |
0.6% |
-94% |
| Travel & leisure |
0.1% |
-78% |
“South Africa has entered an advanced fraud phase where criminals exploit trust, operate across channels and target established digital relationships rather than weak entry points. Fraud is increasingly occurring inside legitimate marketplaces and impersonated public services, while risk remains consistently highest at login, as it has been on an annual basis.”
“As criminals increasingly weaponise new technologies to carry out sophisticated scams, it’s more important than ever for consumers to safeguard their personal information and to review their credit reports regularly,” said Reddy.
“For businesses, the call to action is clear: fraud strategies must extend beyond compliance and onboarding controls to actively protect trust across the entire digital journey. Organisations that invest in adaptive authentication, identity intelligence and visible security at moments of access will be best positioned to reduce fraud, preserve customer confidence and differentiate their brands in South Africa’s digital economy,” she added.
TransUnion came to its conclusions about digital fraud based on a global survey of 12,730 consumers in 18 countries and regions from Nov. 20–Dec. 9, 2025, and intelligence from its array of TransUnion fraud prevention solutions. To learn more about how TransUnion fraud prevention solutions can help businesses avoid fraud and prevent fraud losses, click here.
Specific country and regional data in the report includes South Africa, Botswana, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, Nicaragua, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Rwanda, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Zambia. Download the TransUnion H1 2026 Update to the Top Fraud Trends Report for more information and insights about the global fraud trends.
[1] Suspected digital fraud attempts reflects those which TransUnion clients determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon client investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation. The country and regional analyses examined transactions in which the consumer or suspected fraudster was located in a select country or region when conducting a transaction. Global statistics represent every country worldwide and not just the select countries and regions.
[2] Exchange rate calculated at R16.69 to the US dollar as per the exchange rate for 29 December 2025.
[3] TransUnion analysed the suspected digital fraud rate in its global intelligence network for the African countries of Botswana, Kenya, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia.