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South Africa’s Credit Market in Q3 2025: Strategic Moves to Manage Risk

Location: Business

  • Vehicle asset finance originations continued to surge, driven by younger consumers and prime and below risk tiers

  • Credit card originations grew, as higher demand was met with lower new account credit limits

  • Personal loan growth and risk patterns diverged amongst bank and non-bank lenders

TransUnion’s Q3 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report highlights key trends in the South Africa credit market: vehicle asset finance continued its recovery, with stable account volumes and rising balances supported by longer loan terms and more affordable vehicle choices. Credit card usage expanded, with total book balances growing faster than account volumes, even as average balances per card remained stable and new account credit limits were reduced. Non-bank personal loans surged, driven by higher-risk consumers, though elevated delinquencies underscore the importance of strong affordability checks and consumer safeguards.

These shifting patterns in credit demand, usage and risk occurred against the backdrop of a cautiously improving economy. A 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut in July, driven by favourable inflation trends, gave consumers some relief. However, unemployment remained high[1] at 31.9% for the quarter, highlighting persistent labour pressures that constrained the wallets of many consumers.

Within this context, the credit market showed signs of strategic adjustment. Consumers — especially younger cohorts — relied more on credit to manage day-to-day expenses and cash flow, while lenders recalibrated growth and risk strategies.

Vehicle Asset Finance Recovery Extended

South Africa’s vehicle finance market grew for the third consecutive quarter, driven by younger consumers in prime and below-prime risk tiers. New account originations rose 17.2% year-over-year (YoY), with the average new loan amount increasing to R412,000, up from R400,962 a year earlier.

Growth was supported by a shift in the used-to-new financing ratio, which fell from 2.67 in Q3 2020 to 1.03 in Q3 2025. Near-parity between new and used financing reflects the availability of budget-friendly new models, often compact or entry-level, that have narrowed the cost gap.

Consumers also opted for longer loan terms, prioritising monthly affordability over total lifetime financing cost. In Q3 2025, 49.6% of loans were for 72 months or longer, up from 38.2% four years ago and 45.6% in Q3 2024.

First-time buyer participation remained strong at 42% of originations, slightly up from 40% a year earlier. Nearly one-third (32%) of originations were to Gen Z consumers (born 1995–2010). Among first-time buyers, 80% were prime or below[2], compared to 48% for existing borrowers.

Account-level delinquencies stayed elevated at 7.2%, which underscores the need for early warning and pre-delinquency outreach, especially for borrowers showing signs of payment strain and increased reliance on credit.

“The market is stabilising away from the post-pandemic skew toward used vehicles, supporting consumers’ preferences for warranty coverage and predictable maintenance while expanding inclusion and access,” said Hatea. “In an increasingly competitive market, lenders need to calibrate loan terms, deposits, and residual values to match current conditions and customise products and insurance bundles for segments returning to new purchases.”

Credit Cards Reinforced Role as Financial Buffers for Consumers

Consumers remained under pressure: more than four in ten (41%) households said their income was not keeping up with inflation in Q3 2025, and 77% listed inflation for everyday goods as a top concern, according to TransUnion’s Q3 Consumer Pulse Study.

As consumers sought liquidity amid these concerns, credit card originations rose 13.8% YoY, although average credit limits on new cards issued fell 9.8% YoY. Outstanding balances increased 7.7% YoY, and average balances per card were up 2.6% YoY. The risk mix of card originations shifted towards higher risk borrowers: subprime consumers comprised 58.3% of new cards opened in Q3 2025, up from 52.4% a year earlier, while the share held by prime and above borrowers declined.

Lower credit limits on new cards likely reflect lenders’ efforts to manage affordability and mitigate risk exposure, even as originations skewed toward higher-risk borrowers.

Account-level delinquency increased to 12.7%. This, along with a heavier subprime mix, stable balances, and lower credit lines suggests that lenders have deliberately shifted their focus to riskier borrowers to fuel growth.

Consumers also managed their financial obligations by taking out additional credit. This was evident in the Q3 2025 TransUnion Consumer Pulse Report which found that nearly one third (30%) of surveyed consumers stated that they took an additional credit product to pay off an existing credit product during the quarter.

“While lenders seek growth, they are simultaneously tightening credit lines and deploying early interventions to protect portfolio quality,” said Hatea. “Dynamic credit line strategies and early interventions are key. Expanding pre-delinquency outreach and offering short-term hardship solutions can prevent roll-through into missed payments beyond three months, especially for subprime consumers carrying larger balances.”

Bank and Non-Bank Personal Loan Trends Diverged Further

Differences in growth and risk patterns between bank and non-bank lenders widened in Q3 2025. Banks expanded cautiously, focusing on larger, purposeful loans, while non-bank lenders grew through smaller, short-term loans aimed at higher-risk segments. These shifts reflect differing consumer targeting strategies of the two lender groups and increasing affordability pressures on higher-risk borrowers.

Bank-issued personal loan originations rose 7.6% YoY, with average new loan amounts up 9.3% YoY, reinforcing a trend toward larger loans for purposeful borrowing. However, the number of consumers carrying a personal loan balance fell 3.6% from the previous quarter, suggesting loan consolidation and/or repayment by borrowers. Account-level delinquency reached 28.1%, indicating repayment strain despite banks’ disciplined approach to growth and proactive measures to manage long-term defaults.

Non-bank personal loan originations rose 8.5% YoY, but average new personal loan amounts fell by the same margin of 8.5%. Average balances per account dropped 31.9% YoY, showing that these loans are increasingly used for short-term or emergency needs rather than financing larger purchases or debt consolidation. Risk indicators deteriorated sharply: account-level delinquencies surged upwards to 49.4%, highlighting rising financial stress among non-bank personal loan borrowers, compounded by a greater concentration of subprime consumers.

“Personal loan lenders need to balance access with sustainability,” said Hatea. “Stronger affordability checks and better early warning systems can prevent roll-through into deeper delinquency. Proactive engagement with at-risk consumers and tailored hardship solutions will help preserve portfolio health while maintaining access to credit.”

Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Product

YoY origination growth

Serious account-level delinquency rate*
Credit card

13.80%

12.70%
Bank personal loan

7.60%

28.10%
Non-bank personal loan

8.50%

49.40%
Clothing accounts

9.85%

25.60%
Retail instalment

-1.45%

27.40%
Retail revolving

5.20%

17.90%
Home loans

10.68%

7.60%
Vehicle finance

17.20%

7.20%

 *Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears

With an improving macroeconomic environment, driven by moderating inflation and associated interest rate cuts, continued shifts in the consumer credit market are to be expected. However, Hatea concluded: “Even though there are cautious signs of improvement, lenders and policymakers must remain agile when balancing growth with resilience. Refining segmentation strategies and enhancing early risk detection will be key to supporting consumer financial health and maintaining long-term portfolio stability.”

 

[1] Trading Economics South Africa Unemployment Rate

[2] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).

Read moreSouth Africa’s Credit Market in Q3 2025: Strategic Moves to Manage Risk

TransUnion Continues to Lead with Innovative People Practices in Africa

Location: Business

Global information and insights company TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) has once again been recognised as a Top Employer in Africa by the Top Employers Institute (TEI). This marks the fifth consecutive year that TransUnion South Africa has received this prestigious certification, with TransUnion Kenya and the TransUnion Global Capability Centre (GCC) Africa being honoured for the third consecutive year.

"Leading TransUnion Africa across eight countries has taught us that true transformation happens when we invest in people first. Our commitment to solving problems that matter has delivered tangible positive impact. This year we launched a groundbreaking middle manager development programme with Duke Corporate Education for high-performing associates, we advanced financial inclusion initiatives reaching millions across Africa and achieved 55% women representation across our employee base. Additionally, we've strengthened mental health support systems for our teams. The impact on our culture, innovation, relevance, and results is tightly correlated with our investment in making our business a great work environment for our employees and prospective recruits," said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa.

Championing Diversity and Inclusion

“TransUnion GCC Africa, a fully virtual employer, has grown to almost 1,000 employees in just under four years. The TEI certification acknowledges our commitment to excellence in every aspect of our operations. We have built a highly skilled and motivated team by continuing to invest significantly in our people through initiatives such as sponsored education and learnerships. To date, we’ve spent R12+ million on sponsored education and external training, and had 278 learners go through our learnership programme — 55% were female, 68% have either been absorbed into full time employment or are currently finishing the programme. This creates career growth opportunities while supporting our mission to deliver premium experiences for TransUnion’s clients and consumers in 30+ countries," said Shobana Maikoo, Head of the GCC Africa.

Benchmarking Excellence in HR Practices

The Top Employers Institute programme certifies organisations based on the participation and results of their HR Best Practices Survey. This survey covers six HR domains consisting of 20 topics including People Strategy, Work Environment, Talent Acquisition, Learning, Diversity, Equity & Inclusion, Wellbeing and more. TransUnion's consistent recognition by TEI reflects its commitment to excellence and continuous improvement in HR practices.

The programme has certified and recognised only 2,400 Top Employers in 125 countries/regions across five continents.

Read moreTransUnion Continues to Lead with Innovative People Practices in Africa

South African Consumer Credit Market Adapts to Economic Pressures in Q1 2025

Location: Business
  • 36% of consumers planning to take out a new car loan or lease within the next year prefer hybrid vehicles, reflecting a growing inclination towards fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly transportation options
  • 79% of consumers expect their income will grow in the coming months
  • 82% of respondents are extremely or very concerned about inflation, with rising costs continuing to be a major stressor for consumers as they navigate household budgeting and financial planning

South African consumers continue to adapt to a fluctuating economic environment, with TransUnion’s Q1 2025 Consumer Pulse study[1] revealing key trends in household financial management, credit activity and vehicle financing. Amid ongoing financial pressures, a significant increase in intended hybrid vehicle financing highlights evolving consumer preferences.

“Despite the challenges posed by inflation and economic uncertainty, South Africans continue to show resilience in managing their finances,” said Ayesha Hatea, Director of Research and Consulting at TransUnion. “We are seeing notable shifts toward more purposeful financial planning, credit management and strategic spending. While economic pressures remain, consumers are finding ways to balance credit usage, savings, and debt repayments more effectively.”

Economic Concerns and Credit Usage Trends

The report highlights consumers’ ongoing financial concerns, with 42% of respondents stating that their household income is not keeping up with inflation, despite inflation being at the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s target range[2]. These ongoing concerns could be because 40% of consumers said their income stayed the same in the past three months, while 22% reported it decreased.

“With more than six in ten South Africans reporting no increase in their income, it’s clear to see why consumers are trying to find new ways to manage their financial commitments, including taking on more credit, and different types of credit, for key purchases,” said Hatea.

The survey data reveals that 37% of respondents plan to apply for new or refinance existing credit within the next year, with 52% of all those surveyed saying they’ve used Buy Now, Pay Later services in the past 12 months.

Amid ongoing concerns about a recession, consumers indicated that they are actively taking steps to prepare. Among those who said they think South Africa is currently in a recession or will be in one by the end of Q1, the most respondents (59%) said they’re preparing for a possible recession by reducing spending followed by 58% building up their savings and 35% prioritising paying down debt.

Debt Repayments and Savings Trends

The data also reveals shifting trends in debt repayments and savings. A worrying trend is that 38% of respondents in Q1 2025 said they’ll be unable to pay at least one of their current bills and loans in full, up from 35% in Q4 2024.

Among those who said they’ll be unable to pay, 34% reported they plan on paying partial amounts they can afford but not the whole balance, while 25% said they’ll dip into their savings to help pay their current bills and loans. A further 20% of consumers aim to borrow money from friends or family members to meet their payment commitments. Additionally, 35% of those surveyed are looking to take on temporary or gig work.

“Managing debt effectively while maintaining savings is a key challenge for many South Africans,” said Hatea. “Consumers who are struggling to meet their payment commitments should engage with their lenders to potentially renegotiate current payment terms. Lenders do not want consumers to default on their debts, and they are often willing to discuss available options with the intention of creating prudent, sustainable financial solutions.”

Hybrid Vehicle Financing Expected to Increase

Of particular interest in the Q1 2025 study is the finding that 36% of consumers planning a new vehicle loan or lease within the next year would consider hybrid vehicles, while 25% would consider an electric vehicle. In comparison, 32% preferred traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, making hybrid cars the top consideration for new vehicle loans or leases among those surveyed.

The latest TransUnion Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) reflects this trend, with the anticipated introduction of more affordable EVs priced under R1 million expected to accelerate their adoption in 2025, thanks to broadening consumer options in the hybrid and EV market.

“This trend highlights how consumers are adapting to broader economic and environmental changes,” said Hatea. “Hybrid vehicles are becoming more accessible, and their appeal extends beyond cost savings to include long-term benefits such as reduced environmental impact and lower running costs. As this market continues to evolve, we anticipate sustained growth in consumer interest and adoption.”

Fraud Concerns

The study highlights that nearly one in three respondents (31%) check their credit reports monthly, with 54% of those who said they monitor their credit doing so to try and improve their credit score. This indicates an awareness of the importance of credit health management.

A smaller 34% of credit monitoring consumers said they check their credit reports to protect against fraudulent activity. More than half (51%) of all those surveyed reported being targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last three months but not falling victim, emphasising the importance of heightened security awareness.

Among the most common fraud schemes reported by those who said they were targeted were money/ gift card scam (33%), smishing (33%), phishing (32%) and third-party seller scams on legitimate online retail websites (31%), emphasising the urgency for consumers to remain vigilant.

“With digital transactions and online banking becoming standard, financial institutions are urged to implement stronger fraud prevention measures, while consumers are encouraged to monitor their credit activity and adopt safer financial practices,” said Hatea.

Adapting to Improve Credit Health

In response to ongoing financial pressures, South African consumers are making strategic adjustments to their household budgets. In the past three months, 52% said they have cut back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel and entertainment, with 43% of them reporting scaling back on large purchases like furniture, appliances and cars. This cautious approach highlights a continued emphasis on financial resilience and long-term stability.

“Our findings show that South Africans are taking a more proactive approach to managing their finances amid economic uncertainty,” said Hatea. “While financial pressures persist, consumers are prioritising essential spending, reducing discretionary expenses, and making thoughtful financial decisions to maintain stability. Providing them with the right tools, education and financial products will be crucial in supporting their financial well-being in the months ahead.”

The Reserve Bank’s decision to reduce the repo rate by 0.25% to 7.5% this January, with no change in March[3], aims to support economic growth and ease borrowing costs for consumers. This adjustment, coupled with improved inflation expectations, is expected to provide further relief to consumers and stimulate economic activity.

As economic conditions evolve, businesses, financial institutions, and policymakers will need to align with these shifting behaviours, offering solutions that promote financial inclusion, long-term stability, and economic growth.

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.

[1] Q1 2025 South African Consumer Pulse Study was a survey of 950 South African adults from Feb. 10 to 24, 2025.

[2] Inflation Targeting Framework

[3]: repo rate by 0.25% in January to 7.5%: Current Market Rates 

Read moreSouth African Consumer Credit Market Adapts to Economic Pressures in Q1 2025

Environmental Inequality on the Cape Flats Deepens

Location: News

The City of Cape Town's decision to procure a new fleet of diesel buses, using more polluting Euro V diesel, for the upcoming Metro South East Corridor (MSEC) raises serious environmental justice concerns for communities already burdened by poor air quality.

The post CITY’S DIESEL BUS PROCUREMENT DEEPENS ENVIRONMENTAL INEQUALITY ON THE CAPE FLATS appeared first on For Good.

Read moreEnvironmental Inequality on the Cape Flats Deepens

5 Smart Strategies to Manage Debt and Interest Rates in 2025

Location: Business

South Africans are learning to live and thrive in a financially uncertain world. The latest TransUnion Consumer Pulse Study (Q2 2025) shows that while 39% of households expect they may miss at least one bill or loan payment, many are actively reshaping their habits to build financial resilience.

Encouragingly, 31% of consumers are paying down debt faster, 24% are boosting emergency savings, and 37% plan to increase their retirement or investment contributions. These trends suggest that South Africans are not only reacting to pressure, but they are also taking proactive steps to protect their financial futures.

Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa shares some tips and tricks to help you manage debt and interest rates more effectively in 2025:

1. Pay Off High-Interest Debt First

The study highlights that more consumers are accelerating debt repayment and for good reason. Credit cards and personal loans often carry the highest interest rates when looking at consumers with multiple products in their wallet.

“In a high-interest environment, every rand you pay off today saves you from paying more interest tomorrow,” says Hatea

Tip: List your debts and focus on paying off the ones with the highest rates first, while keeping up with minimum payments on the rest.

2. Be Strategic About Borrowing

Access to credit remains crucial. 92% of South Africans believe it’s important for achieving their goals. Yet only 36% intend to apply for credit in the next year, reflecting caution amid high borrowing costs and income uncertainty.

If you do borrow, make it purposeful. The study found that demand is strongest for credit cards (30%), personal loans (28%), and Buy Now, Pay Later services (25%) but remember, these are all unsecured products that can quickly become costly if not managed well.

Tip: Compare interest rates, fees, and repayment terms before taking on new credit. Avoid unnecessary borrowing for short-term wants when rates are high or if you aren’t sure you’ll be able to make the necessary repayments.

3. Build a Safety Net, Even Small Steps Count

Nearly one in four consumers (24%) increased contributions to emergency savings or stokvels in Q2. In addition, 37% plan to grow their retirement or investment savings in the coming months.

Tip: Start with a modest, consistent contribution to an emergency fund, even R200 a month can create a buffer that reduces reliance on credit when life throws curveballs.

4. Strengthen Your Financial Awareness

The study shows that 70% of South Africans check their credit reports at least quarterly, with Gen Z and Millennials leading the way. Those who actively monitor their credit tend to feel more confident and have a better understanding of their overall financial commitments.

Tip: Check your credit report regularly, track your score, and make sure all information is accurate. Awareness is power when it comes to negotiating better credit terms.

5. Protect Yourself Against Digital Fraud

Fraud remains a real risk with 58% of South Africans saying they were targeted by scams in Q2, and 13% fell victim. Younger generations are more likely to adopt safeguards like multi-factor authentication, but 21% of consumers took no action at all.

Tip: Use strong, unique passwords, enable two-factor authentication, and monitor your accounts for unusual activity. Protecting your identity is just as important as protecting your money.

The Bottom Line

The TransUnion Consumer Pulse Study shows that while many households remain under pressure, South Africans are becoming more selective in how they spend, strategic in how they borrow, and vigilant in how they protect themselves.

“Resilience comes from balance: focus on responsible spending and borrowing, reduce costly or unsustainable debt, and build savings to protect against future shocks,” Ayesha concludes.

By taking small, deliberate steps today, households can better manage debt and interest rate uncertainty and build financial stability for tomorrow.

Read more5 Smart Strategies to Manage Debt and Interest Rates in 2025

TransUnion South Africa Busts Three Short-Term Insurance Industry Myths

Location: Business

Every industry has its myths, and the short-term insurance environment is no exception: leading industry players plan their growth strategies around perceptions of a limited pool of customers, focusing mostly on pricing strategies to attract new business, and finding ways to avoid consumers perceived as too risky.

The best way to confirm or ‘bust’ industry myths is to test them through experiments and data analysis to reveal the truth – and that’s exactly what TransUnion South Africa did with data it holds in the short-term insurance sector.

“South African consumers remain under pressure despite recent interest rate cuts, making this an opportune moment for insurers to rethink their customer acquisition and retention strategies – and to challenge the truisms they’ve relied on in recent years,” said Schalk Fischer, insurance lead at TransUnion South Africa. “To drive better outcomes, insurers must evolve and adapt their strategies to respond to changing market conditions, drawing on risk-management solutions that feature unique data and advanced analytics.”

Myth 1: With stagnant total policy volumes, the only way for an insurer to grow is to win customers from other insurers.

In assessing all new short-term insurance policies taken out between April 2024 and March 2025, TransUnion found that only 17% of new policies were opened by consumers moving to another insurer. Another 37% involved ‘policy splitting’, where consumers moved cover of one of their assets to a new provider, but did not move their whole portfolio.

This means that roughly 54% of new policies are opened due to churn – a significant portion, but certainly not the overwhelming portion that many insurers believe it to be.

“This data shows key growth opportunities for insurers lie among consumers who are new to insurance. In fact, 33% of new policies opened during the time of the study were taken out by consumers who had not had an insurance premium in the previous 24 months,” Fischer said. “While the short-term industry will always be very competitive, there are growth opportunities outside of working aggressively to attract customers from other insurers.”

Myth 2: Loyalty in short-term insurance is dead. Price is the primary variable.

With many consumers scrambling for cost savings, price is perceived to be the most important differentiator between insurers, along with being seen as the main reason that consumers leave one insurer for another.

TransUnion’s analysis showed that 13% of insured consumers who cancel their insurance eventually return to their original insurance provider over time, without switching to another insurer in the interim.

This brand loyalty is fairly consistent between different distribution channels: 9% for banks’ insurance offerings, 11% for brokers, and 14% for direct insurers.

“These findings highlight that, while insurance pricing is certainly a leading consideration among consumers, it is evident that brand loyalty is still a driving factor,” Fischer said. “Marketing and acquisition strategies clearly focus on price, but there’s a greater than expected opportunity to build loyalty that will either retain customers or encourage them to return to brands they have trusted before.”

Myth 3: The new-to-insurance segment is small and only includes risky younger consumers.

TransUnion’s analysis revealed that one in three (33%) consumers who took out policies between April 2024 and March 2025 were new to insurance – they did not have short-term insurance payments linked to their identity number in the previous 24 months.

However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that all newly insured consumers were uninsured before. Some may have previously been covered under their partner or spouse, and later separated their insurance portfolios, or they could have been young adults who sought their own cover after being included in their parents’ policies.

“These findings show that insurers need to expand the scope of how they segment their target audiences, as new-to-insurance consumers are not always who they’re perceived to be,” Fischer adds.

The analysis revealed additional insights into consumers taking out a policy for the first time. Only 6% were aged 18 to 24 years – perceived to be the riskiest consumers – while the greatest portion of these consumers (36%) were aged 25 to 35 years, followed by 36 to 45 year olds, who took out 25% of new policies. It’s clear, then, that consumers aged 25 to 45 present the greatest opportunity for insurers.

In overlaying loyalty data with these findings, it emerged that only 1% of 18 to 24 year olds shopped around for a better deal once they were granted cover, while less than a quarter (24%) of 25 to 35 year olds shopped around. However, consumers aged 36 to 45 showed the greatest propensity to shop around for a better deal, with 29% taking on that challenge.

The myth is officially busted: opportunities for growth lie well beyond young consumers who have only just reached eligibility to apply for their own short-term insurance policies.

“While the short-term insurance market is perhaps not growing at the rate that many insurers would like, our analysis shows that it’s far from stagnant. Clear segmentation along with careful risk management and profitability assessments can help providers acquire lower-risk, higher-value customers across diverse groups of potential customers,” Fischer said. “While price remains a significant driver among consumers, other variables continue to play a meaningful role in building customer loyalty.”

Read moreTransUnion South Africa Busts Three Short-Term Insurance Industry Myths