The Gambia’s Hidden History: How a Tiny River Basin Influenced Colonial Trade and Slavery
Recognising African agency in colonised territories allows us to rethink borders and revise history.
Recognising African agency in colonised territories allows us to rethink borders and revise history.
(Budget Vote Debate: Presidency) President Cyril Ramaphosa should deal with the Phala Phala matter swiftly and honestly so that the focus can shift to what should be the top priority in the interest of all South Africans: properly governing South Africa. Once this has happened, South Africa’s international relations policy should urgently be addressed. The […]
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South African households are entering a more constrained financial period, as the modest momentum seen at the end of 2025 comes under pressure from rising living costs.
According to TransUnion’s latest insights, increases in fuel prices, renewed food inflation, and persistently higher borrowing costs are reshaping consumer sentiment, shifting from early signs of recovery in 2026, to a more defensive posture.
This comes as the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivers its latest interest rate decision of a 25-basis points increase, against a backdrop of rising inflation, which increased to 4.0% in April from 3.1% in March, reflecting persistent price pressures across essential categories.
Incremental Increase Adds to Mounting Financial Pressure
Following the MPC’s decision to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, TransUnion notes that the move reinforces a financial environment where household momentum is already being challenged, and cost pressures are compounding.
“A 0.25% increase lands on households that are already under strain,” says Lee Naik, chief executive officer, TransUnion Africa. “This is not a new shock; it is an amplification of pressures that consumers are already managing. The combination of higher instalments and rising living costs accelerates the shift from cautious optimism to caution.”
Data from TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Industry Insights Report shows elevated delinquency across several credit products, while TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Consumer Pulse Study highlights increased reliance on credit and sustained reductions in spending.
“When fuel, food and borrowing costs rise together, the impact is not incremental; it is compounding. That is where we see the real pressure emerge, and where financial behaviour shifts decisively,” Naik adds.
Multiple Cost Pressures Converge
“The risk is not just higher rates; it is the combination of cost pressures hitting at once. The affordability challenge becomes immediate and more difficult to manage,” Naik adds.
TransUnion notes that the key issue is no longer the rate decision in isolation, reflecting the cumulative strain of overlapping cost pressures on household affordability.
“At the start of 2026, there was a sense that consumers were beginning to stabilise, with some early signs of recovery in repayment behaviour and financial resilience. That momentum is now being challenged,” says Naik.
“We are seeing a clear shift toward greater caution, as rising fuel and food costs begin to outweigh any incremental relief. The financial pressure facing households is no longer emerging, it is entrenched.”
Even ahead of the MPC outcome, the financial environment facing consumers has materially tightened. TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Consumer Pulse Study showed widespread behavioural adjustment, with households cutting discretionary spending, increasing reliance on credit, and drawing down savings buffers to manage rising living costs.
At the same time, household affordability is being eroded by cost escalation across essential categories. Household food basket data (PMBEJD April 2026) shows the average basket rising to R5,452.09, marking a clear re-acceleration in food inflation driven by fuel and logistics costs.
Credit performance data from TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Industry Insights Report further reflects growing strain, particularly in non-bank lending segments where delinquency remains elevated, signalling deep financial vulnerability among consumers.
“Consumers are not reacting to a single shock. They are responding to a sustained financial pressure building over time,” adds Naik. “What we are seeing now is a structural shift in behaviour, where households are increasingly prioritising essentials, protecting debt commitments and managing risk more cautiously.”
Looking Ahead: A Structurally More Cautious Consumer Cycle
TransUnion’s outlook remains clear: South African consumers are entering a more cautious financial cycle, as the momentum of 2025 is increasingly challenged by sustained and broad-based cost pressures.
“The environment has shifted from short-term stress to structural pressure,” concludes Naik. “Consumers are no longer adjusting temporarily, they are recalibrating how they manage money, prioritise spending and engage with credit in a more constrained and uncertain environment.”
Diesel has become South Africa’s shadow infrastructure system by compensating for failures in electricity generation and freight rail.
In its most recent cost framework, the AbaQulusi Local Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal (Louwsburg, Vryheid) earmarked R1,3 million for the planning process of the Integrated Development Plan (IDP). The Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) strongly opposes this exorbitant expenditure. The estimated costs for the planning process, as indicated in the 2026/27 budget, include R50 000 for […]
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Yet it has got away with minor sanctions and continues to operate
The increasing trade restrictions recently imposed by Namibia, Botswana and Mozambique on South African agricultural exports not only jeopardise South Africa’s agricultural sector, but also undermine regional trade and economic stability in Southern Africa. This directly contradicts the fundamental principle of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and the objectives of the African Continental Free […]
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Sixty-eight percent of South Africans TransUnion surveyed from 21 November to 9 December 2024 indicated that they had been targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last three months, with 13% saying that they had become victims. Among those who said they were targeted, the most common reported schemes were phishing, where fraudulent emails, websites, social posts or QR codes are meant to steal personal data (33%), smishing where fraudulent text messages try to trick the user into sharing data (31%), and third-party scams on legitimate online retail sites (28%).
In a separate question in that same survey, one third (33%) said that they had lost money to email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last year. Nearly one third (32%) of those who said they lost money reported it happening via third-party seller scams on legitimate online retail sites. This was followed by 26% who lost money via money mule scams where users are solicited to transfer or move illegally acquired money on behalf of someone else, and 23% who lost money via stolen credit card or fraudulent charges.
These and other findings came from research used for building the newly released TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) H1 2025 Update to the State of Omnichannel Fraud Report, which shows how South African consumers continue to be targeted by fraudsters through a wide range of channels.
“With South Africa having the second greatest number of smartphone connections in Sub-Saharan Africa, with people using mobile phones to conduct their everyday business, connect with friends, or keep in touch with family, it’s easy to understand why digital fraud would be such a common tactic among fraudsters targeting this region,” said Amritha Reddy, senior director of fraud solutions at TransUnion Africa. "While cybercriminals will attack at any time using any channel, they appear to focus on channels most popular in the regions they are targeting.”
Nearly one third (31%) South African respondents indicated that they were not aware of being targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud at all, which raises questions as to whether these respondents were in fact targeted, yet simply unaware of the threat.
Based on the TransUnion study, South Africa had the greatest percentage of respondents among countries surveyed in Africa who said they fell victim to email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the second half of 2024. In contrast, Zambia had the lowest percentage of consumers who said they fell victim to fraud in the countries surveyed in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Table 1: Fraud Types Most Frequently Used to Target Consumers in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Last Three Months
| Country | Targeted and fell victim | Targeted but didn’t fall victim | Not targeted | Most reported fraud scheme |
| South Africa | 13% | 55% | 31% | Phishing |
| Kenya | 11% | 71% | 19% | Smishing |
| Namibia | 11% | 52% | 37% | Vishing |
| Rwanda | 10% | 57% | 33% | Money mule |
| Zambia | 9% | 70% | 21% | Smishing |
Source: TransUnion Consumer Pulse Survey of 1,000 people in South Africans in December 2024
Communities and Video Gaming Among Top Industries Targeted by Suspected Digital Fraud
Globally, TransUnion determined that communities (online forums and dating sites) experienced the highest rate of suspected digital fraud[1] attempts in 2024. Nearly 12% of all attempted transactions within communities last year were suspected to be digital fraud. This was closely followed by video gaming (11%), with gaming (including online betting, poker, etc.) at 8% and retail (8%) rounding out the top four.
The logistics industry, which has seen growth in shipping fraud (often perpetrated by organised crime rings), saw the greatest suspected digital fraud volume growth globally in 2024, up more than 100% over 2023. That being said, the fraud rate remains at a relatively modest 3%. Gaming also saw a significant year-over-year (YoY) volume change, up 20%. Telecommunications (-79%), insurance (-29%) and video gaming (-23%) saw the greatest decreases in suspected digital fraud volume YoY.
“Digital fraud on community platforms is by no means a new phenomenon. In 2024, it appears that fraudsters targeted these areas with a renewed vigour,” said Reddy. “Cybercriminals take advantage of the trust inherent on community-based platforms, and target members with a wide range of scammer solicitations, the most reported type of digital fraud in communities.”
For attempted transactions where the consumer or fraudster was located in South Africa, gaming experienced the highest suspected digital fraud rate in 2024 at 6.3% with an 8.1% decrease in the volume of suspected digital fraud from 2023. The only South African industries in which suspected digital fraud increased YoY were insurance and communities.
“It is encouraging to see that attempts at digital fraud have decreased across all but two of the surveyed industries in South Africa,” Reddy says. “Organisations that draw on identity, device and behavioural insights to help them interact with legitimate consumers while mitigating fraud risk are more likely to protect themselves and their customers from the scourge of digital fraud.”
Table 2: Highest Digital Fraud Rates Across Leading Industries in South Africa
| Industry |
Suspected digital fraud attempt rate 2024 |
Change in volume of suspected digital fraud attempts from 2023 to 2024 |
| Gaming |
6.3% |
-8.1% |
| Telecommunications |
6.2% |
-58.5% |
| Financial services |
6.1% |
-29.6% |
| Video gaming |
6.0% |
-67.2% |
| Insurance |
5.6% |
166.5% |
| Communities |
5.0% |
4.0% |
| Retail |
2.9% |
-8.9% |
| Travel & leisure |
0.5% |
-87.0% |
Source: TransUnion TruValidate™
Fraud Comes with a Heavy Cost to Consumers
Consumers faced significant losses due to fraud. Among consumers TransUnion surveyed in 18 countries and regions in November and December 2024, 29% said they lost money due to email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last year. The survey determined that the median amount those consumers said they lost due to fraud in the past year was R32,447. For those who said they lost money due to fraud in South Africa, the median stated amount lost was R12,518[2].
TransUnion came to its conclusions about digital fraud based on intelligence from TransUnion TruValidate.
Specific country and regional data in the report includes South Africa, Botswana, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Rwanda, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Zambia. Download the TransUnion H1 2025 Update to the State of Omnichannel Fraud Report for more information and insights about the global fraud trends.
[1] The rate or percentage of suspected digital fraud attempts reflects those which TransUnion customers determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon customer investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation — compared to all transactions assessed. The country and regional analyses examined transactions in which the consumer or suspected fraudster was located in a select country or region when conducting a transaction. Global statistics represents every country worldwide and not just the select countries and regions.
[2] Based on the exchange rate on 6 Jan. 2025
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While Ekurhuleni Mayor Nkosindiphile Xhakaza is prancing around the G20 Social Summit, the people of the Metro live in squalor. The Metro has spent R5 million of its own funds on venues such as the Birchwood Hotel and the OR Tambo Conference Centre without budgetary approval or it being provided for in the Metro’s Integrated […]
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There are currently three Afrikaners in Washington who believe there is a unique opportunity for a spectacular reset of relations between South Africa and the United States (US). The full provisional document is attached herewith: Let us Make Critical Minerals the Centerpiece of a New U.S.–South Africa Partnership Agreement As Afrikaners responsible for a multi-million-dollar […]
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African Growth and Opportunity Act has previously been renewed for a decade at a time
