When Kids Move Overseas: Why Visits Are So Rare for South Africa’s Emigrant Families
Visits matter because they offer what digital technologies cannot: presence.
Visits matter because they offer what digital technologies cannot: presence.
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According to TransUnion’s (NYSE:TRU) Q4 2024 South Africa Industry Insights Report, the country’s credit card issuers have adapted their acquisition strategies to enable prudent growth, while effective risk management has led to a decline in account-level delinquencies. During Q4 2024, credit card issuers reduced the average credit card limit on new accounts by 3.9% year-over-year (YoY), while at the same time they increased credit limits on existing credit cards[1] by 5.0%.
The limit increase observations were prominent among prime plus consumers (+4.1% average credit limit increase) and super prime[2] consumers (+1.8%). As a result of higher line access and consumers continuing to leverage credit cards to meet financial and transactional needs, total outstanding balances rose by 7.8% YoY. These insights are echoed in TransUnion South Africa’s Q4 2024 Consumer Pulse Report, where 13% of consumers responded that they had increased their usage of available credit.
An improving performance picture, as observed since Q2 2022, continued as delinquencies (measured as accounts 90 days or more past due) decreased by 34 basis points (bps) YoY during Q4 2024. This trend shows that South African consumers have been able to maintain their credit card payment obligations, while leveraging their cards to navigate the continued high cost of living that has put pressure on disposable income.
“Lenders who are sustaining growth and profitability are drawing on enhanced risk attributes to stimulate a greater share of spend and wallet by identifying consumers who are likely to use credit lines judiciously,” said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa. “At a time when new account acquisition is costly, enabling lower-risk consumers to re-engage with their inactive cards, or to extend the use of existing cards, will encourage prudent growth and enable customer loyalty.”
Personal loan lenders target younger borrowers
While personal loan originations from traditional banks declined by 6.2% YoY in Q4 2024, personal loan originations from non-bank lenders increased by 13.9% YoY. Non-bank personal loan originations among Gen Z[3] consumers grew by 48.5% YoY, with this cohort accounting for 15.5% of all non-bank originations.
Non-bank personal loan originations increased YoY across all risk tiers (except for the super prime risk tier, where originations declined by a marginal 1.0% YoY), with the greatest increase seen among prime borrowers (16.1%). However, bank personal loans declined across all risk tiers YoY, except for subprime, where they increased by 6.0% YoY.
Banks are expanding their personal loan offerings to a greater proportion of subprime borrowers. Among bank personal loans, the share of subprime borrowers increased from 53% in Q4 2023 to 58% in Q4 2024, with the share of near prime borrowers remaining consistent across the year. There were minimal YoY fluctuations across the remaining risk tiers. In contrast, the distribution across risk tiers for non-bank personal loans remained consistent over the last two quarters of 2024.
The personal loans market continues to be dominated by younger borrowers, although the total share of originations by borrowers aged 45 and younger did decline marginally in 2024. Seventy-five percent of bank personal loans were granted to Gen X and Millennial customers during Q4 2024, down from 78% one year prior, while 70% of non-bank personal loans were granted to the same age group in Q4 2024, compared to 72% one year prior. At the same time, both lender types are growing their portfolio among the youngest Gen Z borrower group, with 19% of bank personal loans going to Gen Z borrowers in Q4 2024, up from 16% one year prior, and 16% of non-bank personal loans going to these consumers in Q4 2024, up from 12% one year prior.
With respect to credit performance, bank personal loan account-level delinquencies at 90+ days past due dropped by eight bps YoY to 26.6%, while non-bank personal loan delinquencies increased by 452 bps to 40.6%.
“Non-bank personal lenders have a more tolerant risk appetite than banks, and they are responding positively to market demand across age groups and risk tiers,” says Naik. “Lenders that maintain rigorous risk assessment practices that enable greater and earlier prediction of risk, offer education on how to use and manage credit, and empower younger consumers to build their credit profiles, will ensure the continued sustainability of the personal loan market.”
Vehicle loan market continued its recovery path
The vehicle loans market showed encouraging signs of continued growth, as origination volumes increased by 9.6% YoY, and average new loan amounts grew by 1.4%. The greatest growth in originations was observed among Gen Z consumers, where originations grew by 27.9%, although their share of total new finance agreements remains relatively low compared to older age groups. This is the second consecutive quarter in which total vehicle loan originations grew YoY, with the last increase in origination volumes before these two increases having been in Q3 2022. Given the 0.25 bps decrease in interest rates as of November 2024 and a positive outlook for consumer confidence, the vehicle loan market is expected to continue this recovery trend.
These positive trends were also evident in the Q4 2024 TransUnion South Africa Vehicle Pricing Index, that revealed a growing share of financed vehicles within the R250,000 to R750,000 price range. This shift suggests that, while affordability may still be a concern, consumers are prioritising flexible financing solutions and adjusting their purchasing behaviour to align with available credit and economic conditions.
“While the two recent interest rate decreases were just 25 basis points each, the significant increase in new vehicle loan originations indicates that South Africans are becoming more optimistic about their financial futures,” says Naik. “While vehicle ownership is aspirational for many individuals, it’s also the key to unlocking growth for entrepreneurs, and the owners of micro and small enterprises, all of whom are the engines of economic growth in South Africa.
“As part of our drive to expand financial inclusion, TransUnion has included a wide range of alternative data into our scoring solutions, so that more South Africans are more visible in our risk scoring models, in turn creating the platform for them to access finance for the first time.”
Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)
|
Product |
YoY origination growth |
Serious account-level delinquency rate* |
YoY basis points (bps) change in delinquency rate |
| Credit card |
5.6% |
12.0% |
-33 bps |
| Bank personal loan |
-6.2% |
26.6% |
-8 bps |
| Non-bank personal loan |
13.9% |
40.6% |
452 bps |
| Clothing accounts |
-4.0% |
26.4% |
-143 bps |
| Retail instalment |
14.9% |
27.5% |
-204 bps |
| Retail revolving |
11.9% |
14.5% |
-500 bps |
| Home loans |
-13.2% |
7.1% |
26 bps |
| Vehicle finance |
9.6%% |
4.8% |
13 bps |
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South African consumers continue to adapt to a fluctuating economic environment, with TransUnion’s Q1 2025 Consumer Pulse study[1] revealing key trends in household financial management, credit activity and vehicle financing. Amid ongoing financial pressures, a significant increase in intended hybrid vehicle financing highlights evolving consumer preferences.
“Despite the challenges posed by inflation and economic uncertainty, South Africans continue to show resilience in managing their finances,” said Ayesha Hatea, Director of Research and Consulting at TransUnion. “We are seeing notable shifts toward more purposeful financial planning, credit management and strategic spending. While economic pressures remain, consumers are finding ways to balance credit usage, savings, and debt repayments more effectively.”
Economic Concerns and Credit Usage Trends
The report highlights consumers’ ongoing financial concerns, with 42% of respondents stating that their household income is not keeping up with inflation, despite inflation being at the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s target range[2]. These ongoing concerns could be because 40% of consumers said their income stayed the same in the past three months, while 22% reported it decreased.
“With more than six in ten South Africans reporting no increase in their income, it’s clear to see why consumers are trying to find new ways to manage their financial commitments, including taking on more credit, and different types of credit, for key purchases,” said Hatea.
The survey data reveals that 37% of respondents plan to apply for new or refinance existing credit within the next year, with 52% of all those surveyed saying they’ve used Buy Now, Pay Later services in the past 12 months.
Amid ongoing concerns about a recession, consumers indicated that they are actively taking steps to prepare. Among those who said they think South Africa is currently in a recession or will be in one by the end of Q1, the most respondents (59%) said they’re preparing for a possible recession by reducing spending followed by 58% building up their savings and 35% prioritising paying down debt.
Debt Repayments and Savings Trends
The data also reveals shifting trends in debt repayments and savings. A worrying trend is that 38% of respondents in Q1 2025 said they’ll be unable to pay at least one of their current bills and loans in full, up from 35% in Q4 2024.
Among those who said they’ll be unable to pay, 34% reported they plan on paying partial amounts they can afford but not the whole balance, while 25% said they’ll dip into their savings to help pay their current bills and loans. A further 20% of consumers aim to borrow money from friends or family members to meet their payment commitments. Additionally, 35% of those surveyed are looking to take on temporary or gig work.
“Managing debt effectively while maintaining savings is a key challenge for many South Africans,” said Hatea. “Consumers who are struggling to meet their payment commitments should engage with their lenders to potentially renegotiate current payment terms. Lenders do not want consumers to default on their debts, and they are often willing to discuss available options with the intention of creating prudent, sustainable financial solutions.”
Hybrid Vehicle Financing Expected to Increase
Of particular interest in the Q1 2025 study is the finding that 36% of consumers planning a new vehicle loan or lease within the next year would consider hybrid vehicles, while 25% would consider an electric vehicle. In comparison, 32% preferred traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, making hybrid cars the top consideration for new vehicle loans or leases among those surveyed.
The latest TransUnion Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) reflects this trend, with the anticipated introduction of more affordable EVs priced under R1 million expected to accelerate their adoption in 2025, thanks to broadening consumer options in the hybrid and EV market.
“This trend highlights how consumers are adapting to broader economic and environmental changes,” said Hatea. “Hybrid vehicles are becoming more accessible, and their appeal extends beyond cost savings to include long-term benefits such as reduced environmental impact and lower running costs. As this market continues to evolve, we anticipate sustained growth in consumer interest and adoption.”
Fraud Concerns
The study highlights that nearly one in three respondents (31%) check their credit reports monthly, with 54% of those who said they monitor their credit doing so to try and improve their credit score. This indicates an awareness of the importance of credit health management.
A smaller 34% of credit monitoring consumers said they check their credit reports to protect against fraudulent activity. More than half (51%) of all those surveyed reported being targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last three months but not falling victim, emphasising the importance of heightened security awareness.
Among the most common fraud schemes reported by those who said they were targeted were money/ gift card scam (33%), smishing (33%), phishing (32%) and third-party seller scams on legitimate online retail websites (31%), emphasising the urgency for consumers to remain vigilant.
“With digital transactions and online banking becoming standard, financial institutions are urged to implement stronger fraud prevention measures, while consumers are encouraged to monitor their credit activity and adopt safer financial practices,” said Hatea.
Adapting to Improve Credit Health
In response to ongoing financial pressures, South African consumers are making strategic adjustments to their household budgets. In the past three months, 52% said they have cut back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel and entertainment, with 43% of them reporting scaling back on large purchases like furniture, appliances and cars. This cautious approach highlights a continued emphasis on financial resilience and long-term stability.
“Our findings show that South Africans are taking a more proactive approach to managing their finances amid economic uncertainty,” said Hatea. “While financial pressures persist, consumers are prioritising essential spending, reducing discretionary expenses, and making thoughtful financial decisions to maintain stability. Providing them with the right tools, education and financial products will be crucial in supporting their financial well-being in the months ahead.”
The Reserve Bank’s decision to reduce the repo rate by 0.25% to 7.5% this January, with no change in March[3], aims to support economic growth and ease borrowing costs for consumers. This adjustment, coupled with improved inflation expectations, is expected to provide further relief to consumers and stimulate economic activity.
As economic conditions evolve, businesses, financial institutions, and policymakers will need to align with these shifting behaviours, offering solutions that promote financial inclusion, long-term stability, and economic growth.
Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.
[1] Q1 2025 South African Consumer Pulse Study was a survey of 950 South African adults from Feb. 10 to 24, 2025.
[2] Inflation Targeting Framework
[3]: repo rate by 0.25% in January to 7.5%: Current Market Rates
Today, 16 December, we commemorate the Day of the Vow – the day in 1838 when the Voortrekkers, led by the likes of Andries Pretorius and Sarel Cilliers, made a sacred vow to God before the Battle of Blood River. They promised that, if God granted them victory over a mighty enemy, they would annually […]
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As financial awareness continues to grow across South Africa, new insights from TransUnion’s Q1 2025 Consumer Pulse Study reveal encouraging signs that more consumers are actively taking control of their credit health.
According to the Consumer Pulse Study, nearly one in three South Africans (31%) check their credit reports on a monthly basis, a significant step in the right direction. More than half (54%) of those who check their reports do so with the intention of improving their credit scores, showing a shift toward long-term financial empowerment.
“We’re seeing a rise not only in credit awareness, but in the importance of checking and understanding your credit report, which is an incredibly positive sign,” says Fatgie Adams, Head of Credit Risk Solutions at TransUnion Africa. “Knowing your credit report and credit score is one of the simplest yet most powerful ways to take control of your financial future. It opens the door to better lending rates, protects against fraud, and supports better decision-making.”
A deeper understanding of how to read the data on your credit report is also essential. A credit report provides a snapshot of your credit activity and how lenders perceive your creditworthiness. It typically includes information like:
By learning to read this data, consumers can spot potential errors, identify areas for improvement, and gain insights into how their credit management practices impact their scores. Understanding these elements not only helps improve your score but also boosts your financial confidence when applying for loans or credit.
While this progress is encouraging, the study also highlighted opportunities for deeper financial vigilance. Only 34% of consumers currently check their credit reports as a means of fraud prevention. Notably, although 50% of respondents reported being targeted by scams or fraud in the past three months, but did not fall victim, indicating a promising increase in consumer awareness and resilience
With 37% of South Africans planning to apply for new or refinanced credit in the next 12 months, understanding one’s credit standing and how to interpret the information on your credit report becomes even more crucial, particularly in today’s challenging economic climate.
“We encourage consumers to make credit report checks part of their regular financial routine,” adds Adams. “It takes just a few minutes and it’s one of the most effective tools for staying financially fit and fraud aware.”
Quick Tips for a Healthier Credit Score
To check your credit score for free and learn more, visit www.transunion.co.za.
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