Zimbabwe Wants Digital Payments to Build Trust in Its Newest Currency. Why Technology Alone Won’t Be Enough to Save the Zig
Zimbabwe’s goal should be to promote wider adoption of the local currency, not to use technology to force it.
Running
Thabo Mbeki’s Legacy in South Africa: Stronger Government but a Blurred Line Between State and Party
Mbeki’s leadership contributed to institutional weaknesses that emerged more fully after he left office.
Gabriël Kaalmeyer
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No Running Water, Yet Borehole Levies for Mbombela
The Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) is opposed to the ANC-led Mbombela Local Municipality’s decision to keep charging monthly levies on private boreholes, while large parts of the Municipality still do not have reliable running water. Residents are increasingly making use of boreholes due to the Municipality’s failure to ensure reliable water supply, but now […]
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Rising CO₂ Is Making African Savanna Grasses Grow More – What This Means for Grazing, Fire and Carbon Storage
New research in the Kruger National Park has found that rising CO₂ in the atmosphere helps savanna grasses grow when less water is available.
Public Urged to Comment on City of Cape Town’s Important Draft Animal Keeping By-Law
The Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) is urging all Cape Town residents to take part in the public participation process on the City’s new draft Animal Keeping By-law. The proposed legislation will have a direct impact on animal owners and the broader community, and aims to grant greater powers to law enforcement officers. The draft […]
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South Africa’s Green Building Upgrades Are Rising – But Major Cities Still Dominate, Study Finds
Green ratings are growing in South Africa, mainly for upgraded older buildings, but some low scores suggest buildings may appear greener than they are.
Rubio’s Message Is Clear: No More Delays in Addressing the USA’s Conditions
The contempt that President Cyril Ramaphosa and his administration have demonstrated in ignoring the conditions set by the United States (US) for normalising relations between the two countries for more than a year is now leading to serious and direct consequences. The new policy recently announced by the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, aimed […]
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South Africans Aren’t Giving Up on Car Ownership. They’re Just Buying Differently
- TransUnion's Q2 2026 Mobility Insights Report reveals new passenger vehicle sales grew 15.8% year-on-year, the strongest annual growth in three quarters.
- Used-to-New Ratio declines from 3.2 to 2.7 year-on-year, reinforcing the shift towards new vehicles
- Vehicle purchase intent declined from 22% to 19%, as households became more cautious amid rising affordability pressures.
Despite continued fuel price pressure, rising living costs and ongoing strain on household finances, South Africans continue to prioritise vehicle ownership. According to TransUnion's Q2 2026 Mobility Insights Report, new passenger vehicle sales increased 15.8% year-on-year during the quarter, marking the strongest annual growth recorded in the past three quarters despite challenging economic conditions.
Beneath this growth, however, a significant shift is underway. Consumers are showing renewed interest in used vehicles and more affordable options as affordability becomes a more important consideration. The changing dynamics are reflected in vehicle registration patterns.
The used-to-new ratio declined from 3.2 in Q2 2025 to 2.7 in Q2 2026, indicating that new vehicles gained market share over the past year. While the ratio increased from 2.3 in Q1, the year-on-year movement confirms that the broader shift towards new vehicles remains intact.
"One of the most encouraging findings from this quarter's report is that South Africans have not stepped away from vehicle ownership despite a more challenging economic backdrop," says Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion Africa.
"What we are seeing instead is a more pragmatic consumer. Mobility remains essential, but consumers are carefully weighing affordability, financing costs, fuel efficiency and long-term ownership expenses before making purchasing decisions."
As consumers increasingly turn to used vehicles, alternative financing structures, rental models and digital purchasing journeys, the industry's risk profile is evolving alongside these opportunities. Fraud is no longer confined to traditional vehicle-finance applications. Businesses face growing exposure to identity fraud, synthetic identities, document manipulation, income misrepresentation, ownership fraud and payment fraud across multiple points of the automotive ecosystem.
Affordability Reshapes the Market
One of the clearest indicators of changing consumer priorities is the rapid rise of Chinese automotive brands. These brands now account for more than one in every five (22.4%) passenger and light commercial vehicles sold in South Africa, highlighting the growing importance of affordability, technology and overall value in purchasing decisions.
"Affordability has become one of the defining themes of South Africa's mobility market," says Hatea. "Consumers are increasingly looking for the best overall value proposition rather than simply the lowest price. Brands that combine affordability, quality, technology and lower running costs are proving particularly attractive in the current environment."
Consumers Remain Engaged but More Cautious
Data from TransUnion's Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Survey points to a more measured outlook among households.
The proportion of consumers intending to purchase a vehicle within the next three months declined from 22% in Q1 to 19% in Q2. The decline was most pronounced among lower- and middle-income households, while purchase intent among higher-income households increased from 24% to 27%.
Importantly, this moderation should not be interpreted as weakening demand. Rather, it suggests consumers are becoming more deliberate as affordability pressures intensify.
The continued strength in vehicle sales indicates that vehicle ownership remains a priority for many South Africans. However, consumers are increasingly focused on achieving the right balance between affordability, reliability and long-term value.
Hybrid Vehicles Gain Momentum
The same practical mindset is shaping attitudes towards vehicle technology. While internal combustion engine vehicles continue to dominate the market, hybrid vehicles have emerged as the preferred route to electrification. According to the report, 45% of consumers now consider hybrid vehicles when evaluating their next purchase, making them the most attractive electrified vehicle option in South Africa.
Rising fuel costs, concerns around charging infrastructure and growing awareness of operating expenses are encouraging consumers to seek greater efficiency without compromising convenience.
"South Africa's mobility transition is likely to follow a distinctly local path. Consumers want lower running costs and greater efficiency, but practicality remains paramount. Hybrid technology offers a compelling middle ground between affordability, convenience and sustainability.”
"As automotive customer journeys become increasingly digital, businesses need to connect identity, device, behavioural and financial intelligence to distinguish legitimate customers from higher-risk activity without adding friction to the customer experience," adds Hatea.
Value Will Define the Next Phase of Growth
Despite a more challenging outlook for households and businesses, the report suggests the underlying fundamentals supporting vehicle demand remain intact.
For OEMs, dealers, financiers and insurers, future growth opportunities will increasingly depend on their ability to meet consumer expectations around affordability, convenience and efficiency. Organisations that can help consumers navigate a constrained economic environment through competitive pricing, flexible financing solutions and lower-cost mobility options will be better positioned to respond to demand.
Growth, however, must be supported by intelligent risk management. Traditional verification approaches are increasingly being complemented by layered fraud prevention capabilities that connect identity, device, behavioural, financial and regulatory signals. This helps organisations identify higher-risk activity earlier while reducing friction for legitimate customers.
"The South African vehicle market continues to demonstrate resilience, but success in the next phase of growth will depend on understanding a more selective and value-driven consumer," concludes Hatea. “The ability to deliver affordability, efficiency, trust and long-term value will increasingly determine which brands and businesses succeed in the market.”
A slap in the face of NMBM residents
While thousands of residents of the Nelson Mandela Bay Metro (NMBM) are engaged in a daily struggle to put food on the table, have access to running water and keep sewage out of their streets, the Mayor, Babalwa Lobishe, hosted an extravagant gala evening to deliver her State of the City Address (SOCA). This is […]
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We Asked ChatGPT, Claude and Perplexity for Financial Advice: What We Got Was Practical, but With Big Blind Spots
AI is a powerful tool for financial fact-finding and brainstorming. But for now it can’t replace the human element.
Zambia Votes: Who’s Who and What Issues Are Shaping the Elections?
The country is likely to have a much stronger opposition to contend with after the 2026 polls.
Wind and Solar Projects in Kenya and South Africa Don’t Always Benefit the Communities That Host Them – Study
In South Africa and Kenya, some green energy projects have deprived local communities of land and livelihoods instead of sharing the benefits.
Kenya’s Running Stars Attract Suspicion and Awe – Our Research Gives a More Human Picture
The real ‘secret’ of their success lies in a complex network of social mobility and connection with local communities.
Govan Mbeki Residents Still Without Water
It is unacceptable that many communities in the Govan Mbeki Local Municipality have been without water for more than ten days following Rand Water’s planned maintenance work, which was specifically intended to improve the long-term reliability of the region’s water supply. This predicament focuses the spotlight on the Municipality’s ageing infrastructure, inadequate emergency planning and […]
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Racial Stereotypes of African Footballers Persist. A World Cup Is a Good Time to Talk About Them
Africans are often sold as physically strong with raw talent, but lacking in discipline and technical refinement.
Shopping for God in Lagos: What Is Chrislam?
To secure health and wealth, many people combine elements from different religious traditions. One such movement is Chrislam.
South Africa’s Vehicle Market Proves Resilient as Affordability Reshapes Demand
- Passenger vehicle sales reached 114,517 units in Q1 2026, with year-on-year growth moderating to 12.6%
- Chinese brands account for more than 19% of new passenger and light commercial vehicle sales nationally
- Hybrid vehicle interest rose to 39%, reinforcing hybrids as South Africa’s primary pathway in the shift toward electrified vehicles
South Africa’s passenger vehicle market remained resilient in the first quarter of 2026, but demand is evolving. Rising affordability pressures, higher fuel costs, the growth of Chinese brands and shifting powertrain preferences are reshaping the automotive landscape.
According to TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Mobility Insights Report, passenger vehicle sales reached 114,517 units in Q1 2026, slightly higher than the 114,246 units recorded in Q4 2025. Year-on-year (YoY) growth eased to 12.6%, down from the stronger performance seen during parts of 2025, but demand remained elevated despite a more uncertain macroeconomic environment.
A Stronger Start, But Growing External Pressures
The report, which provides a first quarter overview, indicates that South Africa entered 2026 on a stronger economic footing. This was supported by easing inflation, lower interest rates over the previous year, reduced load-shedding, and improved financial conditions.
However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated oil price shock have heightened downside risks. In March 2026, inflation increased from 3.1% to 4.0% in April 2026, while the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently raised the prime lending rate by 25-basis points in May 2026. Combined with higher fuel and transport costs, these factors are expected to place renewed pressure on affordability and consumer spending.
“Vehicle demand has not collapsed, but the market is moving into a more selective phase,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Consumers are still buying vehicles, but affordability is no longer only about the purchase price. Fuel costs, financing costs, insurance, servicing, and total cost of ownership are becoming central to the decision.”
Residual Value and the True Cost of Ownership
The report found that residual values are becoming an increasingly important component of vehicle affordability. As finance terms extend beyond six years for many buyers, depreciation and resale performance play a growing role in ownership economics, giving brands that retain value more effectively a competitive advantage.
The shift towards longer financing terms and the use of balloon structures reflects a growing focus on monthly affordability and cash-flow flexibility. However, this trend also increases exposure to residual value risk. Where vehicle values underperform expectations, consumers may face refinancing pressure or negative equity at trade-in, making used vehicle market performance an increasingly critical consideration.
Chinese Brands Reshape the Competitive Landscape
One of the most notable structural shifts is the continued rise of Chinese automotive brands. Chinese car sales grew by 75% YoY in Q1 2026, significantly outpacing traditional OEM growth of 2% and the broader passenger and light commercial vehicle (LCV) market growth of 12.7%. As a result, Chinese brands accounted for more than 19% of new passenger and LCV sales nationally, meaning nearly one in five new vehicles sold in South Africa was from a Chinese manufacturer in Q1 2026.
The shift is no longer driven solely by entry-level pricing. Chinese brands are increasingly competing on technology, features, fuel efficiency, range, warranty offerings, and perceived long-term value. On a combined portfolio basis, Chery Group, including Chery, Jetour, Omoda, and Jaecoo, recorded combined sales of 16,094 units in Q1 2026, positioning itself as a top three automotive player.
“Chinese brands have moved beyond the role of price disruptors. They are becoming structural industry players, influencing dealer networks, financing ecosystems, ownership perceptions, and the wider discussion around localisation and industrial competitiveness,” said Hatea.
Diverging Trends Across New and Used Markets
The new and used vehicle markets continued to show differing trends. NaTIS data indicates that new vehicle registrations increased by 11.6% YoY in Q1 2026, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. In contrast, used vehicle registrations increased by 2.6%, suggesting a modest recovery in the secondary market, although it still trails the stronger momentum seen in new vehicle sales.
The used-to-new registration ratio declined to 2.3 in Q1 2026, the lowest level recorded over the reporting period. While used vehicles still make up the majority at 69% of total registrations, the share of new vehicles has risen to 31%, up from 23% in Q4 2025. This shift has been supported by favourable pricing dynamics, with new vehicle inflation falling to 0.8%, while used vehicle prices remained in deflation at -1.3%.
Confidence Rises, But Caution Remains
Dealer sentiment also reflects the stronger demand environment. New vehicle dealer confidence increased to 67 in Q1 2026, its highest level in 13 years. However, the report cautions that increasing fuel costs, inflation risk, and rising operating expenses could create more challenging conditions in the quarters ahead.
Forward-looking consumer data remains constructive. TransUnion’s Consumer Pulse Survey found that consumers likely to purchase a vehicle in the next few months increased from 19% in Q4 2025 to 22% in Q1 2026. Short-term purchase intent is strongest amongst younger consumers, with 26% of Gen Z and 24% of Millennials indicating plans to buy.
A Gradual Shift in Powertrain Preferences
Powertrain preferences are also evolving. Internal combustion engine vehicles remain the most popular choice, preferred by 49% of consumers in Q1 2026. However, interest in hybrid electric vehicles has grown significantly to 39%, up from 30% in Q4 2025, making hybrids the leading electrified option. Interest in both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids also increased, with each reaching 26%.
“Hybrids are emerging as a practical transition pathway for South African consumers. They offer fuel savings and lower running costs without full dependence on charging infrastructure, which makes them relevant in a market where affordability and operating certainty remain critical,” said Hatea.
A Market Entering Its Next Phase
While domestic demand continues to support the industry, passenger vehicle exports remain under pressure amid trade uncertainty, geopolitical disruption, protectionism, and changing decarbonisation requirements.
“The South African automotive market is not reverting to its previous structure. The next phase will be defined by affordability, value, access to finance and how effectively industry players respond to evolving consumer behaviour,” said Hatea.
Contempt for America’s Conditions to Normalize Relations Begins to Show Serious Consequences After a Year
The hourglass is running out for South Africa, which has ignored the five American conditions for normalizing relations between the two countries with contempt for a year. These conditions were handed to the Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) exactly a year ago during the party’s historic visit to Washington and the White House, to be […]
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Internet Access Is Unequal in South Africa’s Economic Powerhouse: Survey Shows Race and Income Mark the Digital Divide
Access to the internet in South Africa’s economic powerhouse, Gauteng, is marked by inequalities.
How Many Red Flags Before the Mayor Admits There Is a Problem?
The City of Cape Town’s Mayoral Committee is not some large, faceless structure. It is the Mayor’s hand-picked executive team.
The post HOW MANY RED FLAGS BEFORE THE MAYOR ADMITS THERE IS A PROBLEM? appeared first on For Good.
Trips Abroad vs Leaking Pipes: Where Do Mbombela’s Priorities Lie?
The Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) is seriously questioning the priorities of the Mbombela Local Municipality after approval was sought for the Executive Mayor, Mr Wiseman Khumalo, the Municipal Manager and senior officials to attend the World Water Week conference in Singapore from 15 to 19 June 2026. All while Mbombela’s own taps are running […]
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Tshwane Budgets Flawed Projections Favour Salary Bill at the Expense of Service Delivery
It is clearly evident in the Tshwane Metro’s newly adopted 2026/27 budget that service delivery will once again get the short end of the stick when the money starts running out. During Thursday’s budget debate, the Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) emphasised that the budget is not fully funded, despite claims by the Mayoral Committee […]
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Johannesburg Metro Sinks Deeper Into Financial Quagmire
The Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) could not support the City of Johannesburg’s proposed 2026/27 budget as it fails to address the Metro’s critical financial crisis, allowing it to sink even deeper into a financial quagmire. The budget was tabled against the backdrop of a severe financial crisis: ongoing disputes with Eskom, a scathing letter […]
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