Johannesburg, February 08, 2025: South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) hit a significant speed bump on 19 February when Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana was advised to postpone the presentation of the National Budget until 12 March due to consultation challenges with other parties within the GNU. This highlights the intricacies of power-sharing governance structures, and the fine line political parties have to negotiate to achieve an objective.
“The outlook for the GNU is precarious. While the Public Finance Management Act (Act 1, 1999) (the PFMA) accommodates budget delays, the recurring deadlocks over fiscal policies — especially the disagreements over VAT and other tax measures — signals potential long-term challenges for the coalition,” warns Dr Uduak Johnson: Academic Programme Leader for the Master of Public Administration Programme at the MANCOSA School of Public Administration adding that we may see plenty more fireworks over the next three years.
Setting aside differences to get along
Dr Johnson points out that the delay in the 2025 National Budget Speech, while controversial, is allowed under section 27 of the PFMA. However, this provision highlights the risk of destabilising governance and public service delivery, as seen in the market reaction with a sell-off of local assets and rising bond yields.
“The apparent lack of power-sharing agreements and institutional safeguards has worsened these challenges, emphasising the need for consistent communication and conflict resolution. Legal provisions alone are insufficient for effective governance. To address this, the GNU must ensure inclusive decision-making, foster a culture of compromise, and encourage leaders to prioritise national interests over party politics. Focusing on shared goals, such as economic growth and social development, will help avoid divisive ideological issues and strengthen governance,” says Dr Johnson.
While a new dawn for South African politics is possible, especially if the coalition can align on key economic priorities, the absence of clear decision-making processes and the ongoing leadership conflicts point toward a potential return to majority-rule politics if the GNU fails to adapt. The PFMA provides room for flexibility, but without an effective power-sharing structure, the risks of governance paralysis remain high.
“Additionally, the current budget speech delay demonstrates a need for proper structures so that the GNU can provide political stability and economic recovery. Because the apparent coalition fragility, policy disagreements, and power struggles could derail governance, but if the GNU is honest and clear in leading the country to betterment, then that will tell through ensuring strong leadership, clear agreements, and public engagement that will determine their long-term success,” says Dr Johnson.
Low hanging fruits
While there are signs that the GNU faces a precarious period, Thandile Ncwana, an Academic at the MANCOSA School of Public Administration, points out that there are low-hanging fruits that politicians can reach for that will ensure that all parties can get along.
“Politicians in a GNU should focus on areas like infrastructure development, unemployment reduction, and public safety, which offer the potential for quick wins and are likely to be seen as politically neutral or broadly supported. However, these “low-hanging fruits” can still be derailed by policy disagreements, as seen in the recent budget delay. The Stats SA (2024) report on economic uncertainty demonstrates how such delays can deter investment and affect economic growth, particularly impacting job creation. Non-negotiable steps include establishing clear decision-making frameworks, ensuring transparent communication, and creating conflict-resolution processes, as prescribed by the Constitution and Public Service Act (Act 103, 1994), to ensure alignment. These frameworks are crucial to avoid policy paralysis and ensure the timely delivery of services, which is particularly urgent given the current budgetary uncertainty,” says Ncwana.
There is a need for the GNU to strengthen pre-budget consultations to ensure they structured pre-budget negotiations among coalition partners to address potential disagreements early. As well as establish a multi-party budget committee that will align priorities before the formal budget process begins. Another suggestion is to create an independent fiscal mediation by appointing a neutral budget advisory panel to mediate disputes and ensure a balanced, evidence-based approach to fiscal policy. This committee may further encourage input from independent economic experts to depoliticise budget allocations.
Moreover, there needs to be Parliamentary efficiency reforms that streamline parliamentary procedures to fast-track essential budget approvals, reducing opportunities for political deadlock. This will introduce fallback measures that maintain funding for critical services in case of delays. “Lastly, the GNU should focus on shared priorities by prioritising widely supported policies such as infrastructure development, job creation, and social welfare, reducing ideological clashes,” says Dr Johnson.
Learning from examples
South Africa’s current GNU can draw valuable lessons from other countries with successful coalition governance structures. The examples of Kenya’s 2008 coalition and Germany’s grand coalition governments offer instructive models for managing diverse political ideologies within a power-sharing government.
“These countries have established robust institutional frameworks that guide coalition negotiations, ensuring that deadlocks are resolved and governance continues smoothly. Germany, for instance, incorporates independent oversight mechanisms and clearly defined exit strategies, which have helped sustain its coalition governments. In contrast, South Africa’s current GNU lacks such clear structures,” says Ncwana.
Additionally, the GNU can learn from countries such as Botswana’s Inclusive Governance Model, which strengthened independent institutions to prevent political interference and continuity in governance by focusing on long-term national development rather than short-term party interests. Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement of 1998 ensures that institutional checks and balances are in place to prevent dominance by one party. Consensus-based decision-making also helps manage deep political divisions. In essence, all these four countries prioritise National interests over party politics as they focus on economic growth, job creation, and service delivery. While promoting inclusive decision-making by avoiding governance paralysis and ensuring all parties have a voice.
Back to the drawing board
While it may seem as if the GNU will continue to face challenges going forward, there is a way for politicians to make things work.
“If politicians can put party conflicts aside and work towards a clear decision-making process that will benefit the South African public, the GNU can work. When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers,” concludes Dr Johnson.
Video: THE GNU FACES PRECARIOUS FUTURE as PARTIES CAN’T GET ALONG
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