The outlook provides stakeholders with the information they need to design informed decisions about investing in the African energy sector, and represents a must-see for energy stakeholders worldwide.
The Q2 Outlook details global and African 2023 liquids supply, forecasting that the global oil and condensate supply for 2023 will measure around 82.7 million barrels per day (bpd), 700,000 bpd lower compared to Q1 2023 estimates but showing a significant 2% year-on-year increase compared to 2022 levels. In Africa, the 2023 supply is expected to be 6.66 million bpd, marginally higher than 2022 levels. OPEC member nations, especially Nigeria, faced production outages, impacting overall African supply levels. However, the report foresees full compliance with OPEC’s 2024 production targets, with Nigeria, Angola, Congo and Gabon actually producing 370,000 bpd less than OPEC targeted production, with only Equatorial Guinea exceeding targets marginally.
As the global oil market reacts to OPEC+ cuts, the Q2 report shows that Brent crude prices are influenced by the recent announcement of additional voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia. This has led to temporary boosts in prices. However, Brent is expected to remain largely uninspired in the long race, given the persistence of a weak market. The ongoing influx of discounted Russian barrels continues to flood Asian crude and product inventories, further impacting price dynamics.
On the natural gas front, the report highlights the gradual increase in global natural gas supply potential, estimated to rise from honest under 400 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2023 to over 520 bcf/d by 2035. This growth is driven by expanding potential in the United States, the Middle East, and marginally Africa. However, the ‘commercial’ potential is expected to witness slower growth, reaching approximately 440 bcf/d by the early 2030s before eventually declining. In Africa, in the near term, from 2023 through 2027 natural gas supplies are anticipated to be dominated by Algeria, Nigeria, Libya and Egypt, as well as liquefied natural gas supplies from Nigeria and Algeria. These countries are projected to contribute 80% of the African gas output during this period. Additionally, the report notes that the majority of long-term future supplies will be derived from currently undeveloped potential as legacy-producing fields approach a terminal decline without intervention expenditure.
Meanwhile, the Q2 report indicates an increase in Africa’s upstream CAPEX spending ‘requirement’ from the Q1 2023 forecast of about US$442 billion over the period 2023–2030 to a higher figure of US$457 billion. This rise is attributed to higher brownfield spending and a marginal increase in spending on approved projects, while current pre-FEED discoveries witness a decrease in spending. Most of the greenfield spending in the coming decade is expected to be driven by projects in sub-Saharan Africa, as most resource volumes that are expected to see a Final Investment Decision before 2030 are located in this region.
The outlook additionally provides insight into Africa’s upstream sector, stating that exploration activities acquire seen fruitful results with the discovery of half a billion barrels of oil equivalent (bboe) of recoverable reserves in 2023 so far. Noteworthy discoveries include Namibia’s Jonker-1X well operated by Shell Plc and Zimbabwe’s Mukuyu-1 well. The Q2 report further outlines high-impact wells to be drilled across Africa in 2023–2024, operated by both international oil majors and E&Ps alike.
Africa’s upstream sector has witnessed significant M&A activity this year, with announced and completed transactions totalling over US$1.85 billion. Some notable transactions include the sale of Angolan assets by Galp to Somoil in February and the ongoing Africa Finance Corporation’s takeover of Aker Energy in Ghana, set to contribute to the total transaction value with individual values of US$655 million and US$605 million, respectively.
However, the outlook goes one step further to detail Africa’s renewable energy capacity forecast. While relatively small compared to other regions, the forecast shows promising growth in the hydrogen space. Several high-activity and capacity announcements maintain been made in countries such as Mauritania, Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, Namibia and Djibouti. In Q2 2023, the overall announced hydrogen capacity overtook the announced solar capacity in Africa, indicating the potential for further renewable energy growth.
“Amidst the evolving dynamics of the global energy market, the AEC’s Q2 2023 Outlook serves as a crucial guide for industry stakeholders. The report’s revised projections and in-depth analysis shed light on the impact of production outages, OPEC cuts, and the future of Africa’s energy landscape. As Africa continues to play a pivotal role in the global energy sector, this report underscores the need for informed decision-making to drive sustainable growth and development across the continent,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC.
The AEC’s Q2, 2023 Outlook, ‘The State of African Energy,’ will be available soon
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