2026 Property Forecast

If there’s one thing 2025 made abundantly clear, it’s that South Africa’s property market is nothing if not resilient. In a year marked by ongoing global uncertainty, careful consumer spending, and a tentatively recovering economy, the local property landscape found ways to move forward – even if not always in a straight line.

“We’ve weathered a complex few years, but South African property has shown its strength once again,” says Tony Clarke, MD of the Rawson Property Group. “We’re seeing the early signs of a market ready to grow, adapt, and reward those who engage with it strategically.”

From rentals and residential sales to finance and commercial spaces, each sector faced its own mix of highs and hurdles. But taken together, the picture that’s emerged is one of a market recalibrating for growth – and looking ahead to 2026 with a healthy dose of cautious optimism.

Residential Sales: A balancing act

“This year was a mixed bag,” says Craig Mott, National Sales Manager for the Rawson Property Group. “Some areas outperformed expectations, while others took longer to catch. Stock levels and pricing realism played a huge role.”

While Cape Town saw continued demand and limited supply – particularly in mid-market and sectional title properties – Johannesburg told a different story, with longer listing periods and a greater need for seller flexibility.

According to Mott, pricing expectations have had to shift. “Buyers are cautious, and many are stretching to meet bond requirements,” he says. “If a property is priced right and well-presented, it sells. If not, it sits.”

Buyers are also showing greater awareness of long-term value. “They’re looking at total cost of ownership – from energy efficiency to rates, levies, and security – not just the sale price,” Mott explains. This trend was echoed across the Group’s franchises, with location, lifestyle convenience, and financial sustainability ranking high on buyer wish lists.

Finance: The fight for good clients

From a financing perspective, 2025 saw banks go head-to-head in the battle for quality clients.

“It’s been a year of strategic consolidation for lenders,” says Leonard Kondowe, National Manager for Rawson Finance. “They’re aggressively targeting young professionals with good credit profiles and offering exceptional deals to secure their business.”

Those deals have included 100% bonds, legal fee discounts of up to 50%, and interest rate concessions as low as -2% below prime in rare cases.

“Banks are often willing to beat a competing offer by throwing in another -0.25%,” says Kondowe.

However, affordability remained a major challenge. “Many buyers simply didn’t qualify for the bonds they were hoping for,” Kondowe notes. “The rate cuts we’ve seen this year helped, but they weren’t a silver bullet – especially with high living costs eating into disposable income.”

Looking ahead, Kondowe expects interest rates to remain relatively stable, with the possibility of further modest cuts in 2026.

“We’re seeing green shoots – improvements in energy supply, transport, and inflation control – but it’s a complex global environment. Our economic foundations are stronger, though, and that’s encouraging.”

Rentals: Strong, steady, and still growing

“2025 has been a strong and consistent year for rentals,” says Jacqui Savage, National Rentals Manager for the Rawson Property Group. “We’ve seen steady growth across the board, especially in well-connected lifestyle areas.”

Tenant preferences have continued to evolve, with more emphasis on value-for-money.

“People want fibre, security, and quality finishes, and they’re willing to shop around to get it,” Savage explains.

Remote work has also sustained demand outside of metro areas.

“The Eastern and Southern Cape have had stock shortages due to continued migration out of the cities,” she says.

Perhaps most notably, Savage highlights the return of investor confidence following South Africa’s removal from the FATF grey list.

“We’ve seen a 30–35% increase in investor activity, which has really buoyed the residential market.”

For 2026, Savage predicts more of the same, with a few caveats.

“The cost of living is still high, and affordability will remain a pressure point,” she says. “We’re already seeing a slight increase in late payments, so landlords need to remain vigilant when vetting tenants.”

Commercial: Rebuilding with purpose

In South Africa’s commercial property market, 2025 was defined by shifting sector momentum. The industrial and logistics sector continued to outperform other asset classes, recording robust rental growth and persistently low vacancy rates as online retail and supply-chain demand drove tenant interest.

While traditional office space still lags in overall demand, select submarkets – particularly decentralised nodes in Cape Town – are showing measured rental growth and early signs of recovery.

“We’re seeing strategic shifts as hybrid work reshapes office needs, and logistics space remains highly sought after,” says Sean Grove, Business Growth & Commercial Manager at the Rawson Property Group. “This isn’t just recovery – it’s a recalibration towards the assets and spaces that meet tomorrow’s business needs.”

Smart buildings with solar, water-saving systems, and integrated fibre continue to stand out.

“Infrastructure and efficiency are front of mind for tenants,” Grove adds. “The bar has been raised, and properties that can deliver real value in those areas are attracting serious attention.”

Commercial brokers are also reporting improved sales activity and rising confidence across property classes, bolstered by interest rate relief and renewed investor appetite.

2026: A year for strategic moves

As 2026 approaches, the consensus across the Rawson Property Group is clear: conditions are stabilising, and those who prepare wisely are likely to benefit.

“Success in 2026 won’t come from sitting on the sidelines,” says Clarke. “It’s about understanding the environment, working with professionals who know the terrain, and making confident, informed moves.”

Whether you’re buying, renting, selling, or investing, the fundamentals remain the same:

• Know your numbers: Understand affordability, lending options, and long-term costs.
• Present well: Whether it’s a property listing or a tenant application, presentation matters.
• Partner smart: The right property expert can be the difference between an average deal and a great one.

“It’s not about timing the market, it’s about time in the market,” says Craig Mott. “Opportunities are always there for those who are ready.”