Education

• Card issuers rewarded performing existing cardholders with credit limit increases, but offered lower credit limits to new cardholders
• Consumers increasingly turned to non-bank lenders for personal loans
• Vehicle loan originations increased for the second consecutive quarter, indicating optimism for the sector

According to TransUnion’s (NYSE:TRU) Q4 2024 South Africa Industry Insights Report, the country’s credit card issuers have adapted their acquisition strategies to enable prudent growth, while effective risk management has led to a decline in account-level delinquencies. During Q4 2024, credit card issuers reduced the average credit card limit on new accounts by 3.9% year-over-year (YoY), while at the same time they increased credit limits on existing credit cards[1] by 5.0%.

The limit increase observations were prominent among prime plus consumers (+4.1% average credit limit increase) and super prime[2] consumers (+1.8%). As a result of higher line access and consumers continuing to leverage credit cards to meet financial and transactional needs, total outstanding balances rose by 7.8% YoY. These insights are echoed in TransUnion South Africa’s Q4 2024 Consumer Pulse Report, where 13% of consumers responded that they had increased their usage of available credit.

An improving performance picture, as observed since Q2 2022, continued as delinquencies (measured as accounts 90 days or more past due) decreased by 34 basis points (bps) YoY during Q4 2024. This trend shows that South African consumers have been able to maintain their credit card payment obligations, while leveraging their cards to navigate the continued high cost of living that has put pressure on disposable income.

“Lenders who are sustaining growth and profitability are drawing on enhanced risk attributes to stimulate a greater share of spend and wallet by identifying consumers who are likely to use credit lines judiciously,” said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa. “At a time when new account acquisition is costly, enabling lower-risk consumers to re-engage with their inactive cards, or to extend the use of existing cards, will encourage prudent growth and enable customer loyalty.”

Personal loan lenders target younger borrowers

While personal loan originations from traditional banks declined by 6.2% YoY in Q4 2024, personal loan originations from non-bank lenders increased by 13.9% YoY. Non-bank personal loan originations among Gen Z[3] consumers grew by 48.5% YoY, with this cohort accounting for 15.5% of all non-bank originations.

Non-bank personal loan originations increased YoY across all risk tiers (except for the super prime risk tier, where originations declined by a marginal 1.0% YoY), with the greatest increase seen among prime borrowers (16.1%). However, bank personal loans declined across all risk tiers YoY, except for subprime, where they increased by 6.0% YoY.

Banks are expanding their personal loan offerings to a greater proportion of subprime borrowers. Among bank personal loans, the share of subprime borrowers increased from 53% in Q4 2023 to 58% in Q4 2024, with the share of near prime borrowers remaining consistent across the year. There were minimal YoY fluctuations across the remaining risk tiers. In contrast, the distribution across risk tiers for non-bank personal loans remained consistent over the last two quarters of 2024.

The personal loans market continues to be dominated by younger borrowers, although the total share of originations by borrowers aged 45 and younger did decline marginally in 2024. Seventy-five percent of bank personal loans were granted to Gen X and Millennial customers during Q4 2024, down from 78% one year prior, while 70% of non-bank personal loans were granted to the same age group in Q4 2024, compared to 72% one year prior. At the same time, both lender types are growing their portfolio among the youngest Gen Z borrower group, with 19% of bank personal loans going to Gen Z borrowers in Q4 2024, up from 16% one year prior, and 16% of non-bank personal loans going to these consumers in Q4 2024, up from 12% one year prior.

With respect to credit performance, bank personal loan account-level delinquencies at 90+ days past due dropped by eight bps YoY to 26.6%, while non-bank personal loan delinquencies increased by 452 bps to 40.6%.

“Non-bank personal lenders have a more tolerant risk appetite than banks, and they are responding positively to market demand across age groups and risk tiers,” says Naik. “Lenders that maintain rigorous risk assessment practices that enable greater and earlier prediction of risk, offer education on how to use and manage credit, and empower younger consumers to build their credit profiles, will ensure the continued sustainability of the personal loan market.”

Vehicle loan market continued its recovery path

The vehicle loans market showed encouraging signs of continued growth, as origination volumes increased by 9.6% YoY, and average new loan amounts grew by 1.4%. The greatest growth in originations was observed among Gen Z consumers, where originations grew by 27.9%, although their share of total new finance agreements remains relatively low compared to older age groups. This is the second consecutive quarter in which total vehicle loan originations grew YoY, with the last increase in origination volumes before these two increases having been in Q3 2022. Given the 0.25 bps decrease in interest rates as of November 2024 and a positive outlook for consumer confidence, the vehicle loan market is expected to continue this recovery trend.

These positive trends were also evident in the Q4 2024 TransUnion South Africa Vehicle Pricing Index, that revealed a growing share of financed vehicles within the R250,000 to R750,000 price range. This shift suggests that, while affordability may still be a concern, consumers are prioritising flexible financing solutions and adjusting their purchasing behaviour to align with available credit and economic conditions.

“While the two recent interest rate decreases were just 25 basis points each, the significant increase in new vehicle loan originations indicates that South Africans are becoming more optimistic about their financial futures,” says Naik. “While vehicle ownership is aspirational for many individuals, it’s also the key to unlocking growth for entrepreneurs, and the owners of micro and small enterprises, all of whom are the engines of economic growth in South Africa.

“As part of our drive to expand financial inclusion, TransUnion has included a wide range of alternative data into our scoring solutions, so that more South Africans are more visible in our risk scoring models, in turn creating the platform for them to access finance for the first time.”

 Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)

Product	YoY origination growth	Serious account-level delinquency rate*	YoY basis points (bps) change in delinquency rate
Credit card	5.6%	12.0%	-33 bps
Bank personal loan	-6.2%	26.6%	-8 bps
Non-bank personal loan	13.9%	40.6%	452 bps
Clothing accounts	-4.0%	26.4%	-143 bps
Retail instalment	14.9%	27.5%	-204 bps
Retail revolving	11.9%	14.5%	-500 bps
Home loans	-13.2%	7.1%	26 bps
Vehicle finance	9.6%%	4.8%	13 bps

 *Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears

 

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• [1] Credit card accounts that are currently open and active in the portfolio.
• [2] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).
• [3] TransUnion age distribution: Gen Z (Born 1995 – 2010); Millennials (Born 1980-1994); Gen X (Born 1965-1979); Baby Boomers (Born 1946-1964