Fraud

• TransUnion's Q2 2026 Mobility Insights Report reveals new passenger vehicle sales grew 15.8% year-on-year, the strongest annual growth in three quarters.
• Used-to-New Ratio declines from 3.2 to 2.7 year-on-year, reinforcing the shift towards new vehicles
• Vehicle purchase intent declined from 22% to 19%, as households became more cautious amid rising affordability pressures.

Despite continued fuel price pressure, rising living costs and ongoing strain on household finances, South Africans continue to prioritise vehicle ownership. According to TransUnion's Q2 2026 Mobility Insights Report, new passenger vehicle sales increased 15.8% year-on-year during the quarter, marking the strongest annual growth recorded in the past three quarters despite challenging economic conditions.

Beneath this growth, however, a significant shift is underway. Consumers are showing renewed interest in used vehicles and more affordable options as affordability becomes a more important consideration. The changing dynamics are reflected in vehicle registration patterns.

The used-to-new ratio declined from 3.2 in Q2 2025 to 2.7 in Q2 2026, indicating that new vehicles gained market share over the past year. While the ratio increased from 2.3 in Q1, the year-on-year movement confirms that the broader shift towards new vehicles remains intact.

"One of the most encouraging findings from this quarter's report is that South Africans have not stepped away from vehicle ownership despite a more challenging economic backdrop," says Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion Africa.

"What we are seeing instead is a more pragmatic consumer. Mobility remains essential, but consumers are carefully weighing affordability, financing costs, fuel efficiency and long-term ownership expenses before making purchasing decisions."

As consumers increasingly turn to used vehicles, alternative financing structures, rental models and digital purchasing journeys, the industry's risk profile is evolving alongside these opportunities. Fraud is no longer confined to traditional vehicle-finance applications. Businesses face growing exposure to identity fraud, synthetic identities, document manipulation, income misrepresentation, ownership fraud and payment fraud across multiple points of the automotive ecosystem.

Affordability Reshapes the Market

One of the clearest indicators of changing consumer priorities is the rapid rise of Chinese automotive brands. These brands now account for more than one in every five (22.4%) passenger and light commercial vehicles sold in South Africa, highlighting the growing importance of affordability, technology and overall value in purchasing decisions.

"Affordability has become one of the defining themes of South Africa's mobility market," says Hatea. "Consumers are increasingly looking for the best overall value proposition rather than simply the lowest price. Brands that combine affordability, quality, technology and lower running costs are proving particularly attractive in the current environment."

Consumers Remain Engaged but More Cautious

Data from TransUnion's Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Survey points to a more measured outlook among households.

The proportion of consumers intending to purchase a vehicle within the next three months declined from 22% in Q1 to 19% in Q2. The decline was most pronounced among lower- and middle-income households, while purchase intent among higher-income households increased from 24% to 27%.

Importantly, this moderation should not be interpreted as weakening demand. Rather, it suggests consumers are becoming more deliberate as affordability pressures intensify.

The continued strength in vehicle sales indicates that vehicle ownership remains a priority for many South Africans. However, consumers are increasingly focused on achieving the right balance between affordability, reliability and long-term value.

Hybrid Vehicles Gain Momentum

The same practical mindset is shaping attitudes towards vehicle technology. While internal combustion engine vehicles continue to dominate the market, hybrid vehicles have emerged as the preferred route to electrification. According to the report, 45% of consumers now consider hybrid vehicles when evaluating their next purchase, making them the most attractive electrified vehicle option in South Africa.

Rising fuel costs, concerns around charging infrastructure and growing awareness of operating expenses are encouraging consumers to seek greater efficiency without compromising convenience.

"South Africa's mobility transition is likely to follow a distinctly local path. Consumers want lower running costs and greater efficiency, but practicality remains paramount. Hybrid technology offers a compelling middle ground between affordability, convenience and sustainability.”

"As automotive customer journeys become increasingly digital, businesses need to connect identity, device, behavioural and financial intelligence to distinguish legitimate customers from higher-risk activity without adding friction to the customer experience," adds Hatea.

Value Will Define the Next Phase of Growth

Despite a more challenging outlook for households and businesses, the report suggests the underlying fundamentals supporting vehicle demand remain intact.

For OEMs, dealers, financiers and insurers, future growth opportunities will increasingly depend on their ability to meet consumer expectations around affordability, convenience and efficiency. Organisations that can help consumers navigate a constrained economic environment through competitive pricing, flexible financing solutions and lower-cost mobility options will be better positioned to respond to demand.

Growth, however, must be supported by intelligent risk management. Traditional verification approaches are increasingly being complemented by layered fraud prevention capabilities that connect identity, device, behavioural, financial and regulatory signals. This helps organisations identify higher-risk activity earlier while reducing friction for legitimate customers.

"The South African vehicle market continues to demonstrate resilience, but success in the next phase of growth will depend on understanding a more selective and value-driven consumer," concludes Hatea. “The ability to deliver affordability, efficiency, trust and long-term value will increasingly determine which brands and businesses succeed in the market.”