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It’s hard to know exactly how big an issue this is today, whether this is becoming more common or how much it costs taxpayers. But here’s what we know so far.
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South African consumers are facing sustained financial strain, with nearly four in ten (39%) expecting to miss at least one bill or loan repayment, according to TransUnion’s Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Study (CPS). Persistently high inflation continues to reshape how households spend, borrow and save, driving more cautious financial behaviour and softer optimism.
The findings point to a consumer environment marked less by recovery and more by ongoing adjustment. While many households remain financially active, their ability to absorb additional pressure is narrowing, with affordability constraints increasingly shaping everyday decisions.
“Consumers are still managing, but the margin for error is shrinking,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Even modest increases in essential costs are forcing difficult trade-offs, which is reflected in lower confidence and more cautious credit behaviour.”
Financial Pressure Persists as Optimism Declines
Household finances remain under pressure, with mixed signals pointing to continued strain. In Q2 2026, 43% of South Africans said their household finances were better than planned, down slightly from 44% in Q2 2025. At the same time, 40% said their finances were worse than planned, pointing to persistent pressure rather than a clear recovery trend.
Forward-looking sentiment softened more noticeably. Financial optimism declined to 66%, down from 71% in Q2 2025, while pessimism increased to 19% from 15%. Income expectations also weakened, with 70% of consumers expecting their household income to increase over the next 12 months, compared to 75% a year ago.
A key driver of this shift is the widening gap between income growth and rising living costs. Only 37% of consumers believed their income was keeping up with inflation, while 41% disagreed. Inflation for everyday goods, including groceries and fuel, remained the dominant household concern, ranking among the top three worries for 79% of respondents.
This imbalance is increasingly affecting liquidity, which underscores the extent to which cost pressure continues to affect monthly cash flow and raise the risk of missed payments.
“Inflation remains the single biggest pressure point for households. Even where incomes are rising, essential costs quickly absorb that relief. This makes budgeting discipline and financial awareness more important, because households need to know where they can adjust when pressure rises,” said Hatea.
Households Cut Discretionary Spend to Stay Afloat
In response, South Africans are making practical adjustments to their household budgets. More than half of consumers (53%) said they had cut back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel, and entertainment over the past three months. A further 28% cancelled subscriptions or memberships, while 24% cancelled or reduced digital services such as wireless, cable TV, or internet.
Debt and savings behaviour also reflect caution. Around 32% of consumers said they had paid down debt faster, 27% saved more in an emergency fund or stokvel, and 20% saved more for retirement. At the same time, 14% cut back on retirement savings, 14% increased their use of available credit, and 13% used their retirement savings, signalling that financial resilience is uneven and for some, deteriorating.
Looking ahead, consumers expect essential categories to remain under pressure. Over the next three months, 37% expect their spending on bills and loans to increase, while 33% expect higher spending on medical care and services. Around 36% expect to increase contributions to retirement funds or investments, although 16% expect to decrease spending in that category.
“These findings show how carefully households are trying to manage trade-offs. Some consumers are still building buffers and paying down debt, while others are drawing on savings or credit to get through the month. That is why the broader picture is one of sustained financial adjustment rather than simple improvement,” said Hatea.
Consumers Want Credit but Few Are Willing to Apply
Credit remains a critical financial tool, but engagement is becoming more selective. The study found that 92% of South Africans view access to credit and lending products as important to achieving their financial goals, unchanged from a year ago. Perceptions of access improved, with 45% believing they have sufficient access to credit, up from 38% in Q2 2025. Around half (50%) of consumers believe they would be approved if they applied.
However, this confidence is not translating into increased demand. Only 36% plan to apply for new credit or refinance existing credit in the next 12 months, broadly unchanged year-over-year (YoY). Among those who considered applying for credit or refinancing, 45% ultimately abandoned their plans.
Cost remains the largest barrier, cited by 30% of consumers who abandoned applications. Credit history was cited by 23%, while 22% pointed to income or employment status. This suggests that while consumers still recognise the importance of credit, many remain cautious about taking on new commitments.
“Credit demand has not disappeared, but consumers are becoming more selective about the obligations they take on. For many households, access is not only about whether credit is available. It is also about whether the cost, repayment terms and approval process feel manageable,” said Hatea.
Where consumers do plan to apply, demand is shifting toward shorter-term and more flexible products. Among those planning new credit or refinancing activity, 34% intend to apply for a new personal loan, up from the previous quarter, while 29% plan to apply for a new credit card. A further 27% plan to use buy now, pay later services.
Fraud Exposure Rising as Digital Use Expands
Digital channels are also playing an increasingly important role in financial participation. Of the 30% who said they used digital banking services, around 46% reported using a digital bank, 56% used buy now, pay later services, and 23% engaged with digital or FinTech providers. This points to continued demand for speed and convenience, alongside the need for clear, responsible credit information.
As digital financial activity grows, identity protection remains an important concern. Around 56% of consumers reported being targeted by online, email, phone call, or text message fraud attempts in the past three months.
Among those targeted, the most common schemes were vishing (34%), smishing (33%), and phishing (31%). The study also found that 26% of consumers had been notified in the past three months that details about their identity or online accounts had been compromised in a data breach.
Consumers are taking some protective steps. In the past 60 days, 53% changed passwords because of cybersecurity concerns, 37% checked their credit reports, and 12% purchased internet security, anti-virus, or anti-malware protection. Yet uncertainty remains a barrier. Among consumers who took no action despite cybersecurity concerns, 56% said they were overwhelmed by what to do.
“As digital financial participation increases, security becomes a core part of financial confidence. Consumers need clear, practical guidance on how to protect their information and respond effectively when risks arise,” said Hatea.
Consumers Seek Control Amid Ongoing Financial Strain
Despite ongoing challenges, South African consumers remain financially engaged and active. Around 34% monitor their credit reports monthly, 13% weekly, and 6% daily. More than half (52%) believe their credit score would improve if businesses used information not found on standard credit reports, such as rental payments, short-term loan history, and buy now, pay later loans.
This reflects a broader shift toward financial visibility, as consumers look for tools and information to better manage their financial position in an uncertain environment.
The Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Study highlights a market that is resilient but increasingly constrained. Households are adjusting spending, managing debt carefully, and seeking greater control, but persistent cost pressures are testing their capacity to absorb shocks.
“Consumers are doing their best to stay in control in a difficult environment,” Hatea concluded. “For lenders and financial service providers, the opportunity lies in supporting that effort, through transparent pricing, responsible access to credit, and tools that help consumers anticipate and manage financial stress before it escalates.”.
Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.
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South Africa had the highest rate of suspected digital fraud[1] among African countries analysed, with 3.0% of transactions involving consumers in South Africa being suspected of digital fraud during 2025 – slightly below the global average of 3.8%.
In 2025, the median reported fraud loss among South African consumers who said that they had lost funds to digital fraud (email, online, phone call and text messages) in the previous year, was R11,055 – the second highest in Africa, after Kenya, and well below the global median of R27,879.[2]
These are among the findings in the TransUnion H1 2026 Update: Top Fraud Trends report, which shows that South Africa’s digital fraud landscape has become more complex, with generative AI likely accelerating the scale and sophistication of criminal activity. This has enabled fraudsters to target both consumers and businesses with greater precision and speed.
South African consumers are increasingly facing co-ordinated, identity-driven and cross-channel attacks similar to those seen in mature digital economies. As a result, digital fraud has shifted deeper into the consumer journey: one third (33%) of South African consumers who said they lost money from digital fraud in the last year reported those losses stemmed from third-party seller scams on legitimate ecommerce platforms. This indicates that losses are not occurring because consumers transacted in a suspect or unsafe environment – but because fraudsters successfully embedded themselves into environments that appeared credible, familiar and trusted.
“This signals a market where criminals are exploiting established trust, active accounts and verified digital relationships, and is a clear break from global fraud patterns typically dominated by phishing and vishing – fraudulent phone calls or voice messages designed to deceive consumers into sharing sensitive information or sending money,” said Amritha Reddy, senior director of fraud product management TransUnion Africa. “In South Africa, fraudsters succeed where trust is already established, particularly inside mainstream digital platforms where consumers reasonably expect safety and legitimacy.”
“Criminals are weaponising both consumer trust and emerging technologies,” said Reddy. “As GenAI accelerates the sophistication and scale of criminal operations, the threat landscape is evolving faster than ever for consumers and businesses. Addressing this requires a new generation of identity centric defences that combine advanced analytics, adaptive authentication and multilayered digital fraud detection. Organisations must match fraudsters’ technological innovation to stay ahead of rapidly changing schemes.”
Chart 1: Most Prominent Cause of Fraud Loss
Percentage reporting losing money to these schemes among South Africans who said they lost funds from digital fraud in the last year.
| Type of Fraud | Percentage of Consumers Reporting Losing Money to Fraud Type Among Those Who Said They Lost Money to Fraud in the Last Year |
| Third-party seller scams on legitimate ecommerce sites |
33% |
| Social engineering |
26% |
| Account takeover |
24% |
| Stolen credit card or fraudulent charges |
24% |
| Money mule |
23% |
| Identity theft |
22% |
| Phishing (fraudulent emails, websites, social posts, QR codes, etc. meant to steal personal information) |
21% |
| Smishing (fraudulent text messages meant to steal personal information) |
19% |
| Vishing (fraudulent phone calls or voice messages meant to steal personal information) |
16% |
| Unemployment benefits |
15% |
Source: TransUnion consumer survey
Most Fraud Attempts Occur at Account Login
The suspected digital fraud rate for attempted transactions where the consumer was in South Africa declined from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025, a trend also observed globally. Nevertheless, this decrease does not necessarily indicate reduced criminal activity; rather, it may reflect a shift toward AI-enabled tactics designed to maximise return on investment.
South Africa is one of the few markets where the highest rate of suspected digital fraud attempts* happen at account login, with 3.0.% of account login attempts being flagged as potentially fraudulent, compared to 2.4% at account creation and 0.7% of financial transactions. This trend suggests that attackers are increasingly trying to compromise existing accounts, in contrast to other countries globally where new account creation is a key focus for fraudsters.
“This inversion tells a powerful story that criminals in South Africa are now targeting access using compromised credentials, SIM-swap-enabled entry and social engineering to take over existing accounts,” said Reddy. “This means that vendors and financial institutions need to expand their fraud prevention strategies beyond the new customer onboarding phase, continuing to implement verification throughout the consumer lifecycle – but without the unnecessary friction that will see genuine consumers seeking alternative sites.”
Findings from the survey also show that consumers most preferred top feature when choosing whom to transact with online is confidence that their personal data is secure, with 85% of respondents saying it was very important. This was followed by an easy payment process (80%) and ease of filling out forms or applications (72%).
“The fact that security is the top reported feature shows that consumers are willing to accept friction when completing digital transactions, provided it’s clearly linked to protection,” Reddy said. “As a result, security in South Africa is evolving beyond compliance and emerging as a key driver of brand trust and differentiation.”
Government Sector Most Affected by Digital Fraud Attempts
Suspected digital fraud attempts across Africa[3] in 2025 showed fraudsters focusing on very different industries depending on the country, reflecting local digital behaviours and opportunity points. Globally, the most vulnerable industry was video gaming, where 12.8% of transactions were suspected of digital fraud attempts. Across African countries analysed, gaming also recorded the highest suspected digital fraud rate, driven by Kenya, where 15.6% of gaming transactions were flagged – the highest rate observed for any industry in Africa.
In South Africa, the rate of suspected digital fraud where the consumer was in the country was the most prevalent among government transactions, at 12.5%, highlighting risks tied to public-sector digitalisation.
“Digitalisation has improved access to public services, but it has also created new risks for fraud,” said Reddy. “Fraudsters are leveraging official government branding and service-related messages to impersonate the state and deceive citizens.”
Chart 2: Suspected Digital Fraud Attempts in South Africa, by Sector
| Industry |
Suspected Digital Fraud Attempt Rate 2025 |
Change in volume of suspected digital fraud attempts from 2024 to 2025 |
| Government |
12.5% |
+46% |
| Gaming (online sports betting, poker, etc.) |
11.5% |
+124% |
| Insurance |
7.8% |
+32% |
| Video gaming |
5.5% |
-29% |
| Financial services |
5.3% |
+16% |
| Communities (online dating, forums etc.) |
3.7% |
-42% |
| Logistics |
1.9% |
-98% |
| Retail |
1.1% |
-61% |
| Telecommunications |
0.6% |
-94% |
| Travel & leisure |
0.1% |
-78% |
“South Africa has entered an advanced fraud phase where criminals exploit trust, operate across channels and target established digital relationships rather than weak entry points. Fraud is increasingly occurring inside legitimate marketplaces and impersonated public services, while risk remains consistently highest at login, as it has been on an annual basis.”
“As criminals increasingly weaponise new technologies to carry out sophisticated scams, it’s more important than ever for consumers to safeguard their personal information and to review their credit reports regularly,” said Reddy.
“For businesses, the call to action is clear: fraud strategies must extend beyond compliance and onboarding controls to actively protect trust across the entire digital journey. Organisations that invest in adaptive authentication, identity intelligence and visible security at moments of access will be best positioned to reduce fraud, preserve customer confidence and differentiate their brands in South Africa’s digital economy,” she added.
TransUnion came to its conclusions about digital fraud based on a global survey of 12,730 consumers in 18 countries and regions from Nov. 20–Dec. 9, 2025, and intelligence from its array of TransUnion fraud prevention solutions. To learn more about how TransUnion fraud prevention solutions can help businesses avoid fraud and prevent fraud losses, click here.
Specific country and regional data in the report includes South Africa, Botswana, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, Nicaragua, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Rwanda, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Zambia. Download the TransUnion H1 2026 Update to the Top Fraud Trends Report for more information and insights about the global fraud trends.
[1] Suspected digital fraud attempts reflects those which TransUnion clients determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon client investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation. The country and regional analyses examined transactions in which the consumer or suspected fraudster was located in a select country or region when conducting a transaction. Global statistics represent every country worldwide and not just the select countries and regions.
[2] Exchange rate calculated at R16.69 to the US dollar as per the exchange rate for 29 December 2025.
[3] TransUnion analysed the suspected digital fraud rate in its global intelligence network for the African countries of Botswana, Kenya, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia.
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South Africa's government has put payroll fraud in its crosshairs. In its latest Budget Review document, the National Treasury prioritises digital payroll systems for state entities, combatting what some outlets have reported as over R4 billion in annual losses through fraudulent payroll payments.
This problem is not limited to the public sector. The Chartered Institute of Payroll Professionals estimates that South African businesses lose around R100 million annually through payroll fraud. Many of the cases involve manual and paper-based payroll systems that are easy to manipulate.
The adoption of digital payroll platforms can reduce and catch fraud before it becomes a serious issue. However, going digital is not enough, says Yolande Schoültz, founder of YSchoültz Attorneys and one of SA's foremost payroll fraud experts.
"There is no doubt that digital systems are better than paper-based payroll management. But a digital system only makes it much easier to track down and stop fraud. The organisation must still put the right measures in place, such as approval policies and oversight checks."
Payroll fraud red flags
Perpetrators of payroll fraud commit their crimes in several ways. A lone individual might skim money unnoticed by creating ghost employees or redirecting payments. They might collude with former employees, leaving the latter's details on the system and splitting their salary payments.
Whatever the method, the most common aspect of payroll fraud is an administrator operating under little or no oversight, says Schoültz.
"There should be a chain of custody, such as someone signing off on salary calculations and doing spot checks to ensure everything is legitimate. But it's amazing how often, even at large companies, the payroll administrator is working on their own and is the only one with proper access to the payroll system."
Payroll fraud has several red flags, including:
Individually, some of these warnings can be innocuous. They can be signs of an overworked administrator or lacking workplace strategies. But the presence of several is reason to be concerned, and some (such as changed banking details) are immediate cause for alarm.
Preventing payroll fraud with technology
Modern payroll platforms help organisations reduce fraud, but only when used correctly and alongside other safeguards.
"There is no magical app that just changes how you operate," says Sandra Crous, managing director of payroll provider Deel Local Payroll. "A nutrition app won't automatically get you to eat less, and a fitness app won't suddenly get you to exercise more. You still have to make changes and use the app to reinforce your new behaviours. A payroll platform gives a business the tools to oversee and manage payroll through different layers, but the business must use those tools in accordance with its policies."
Spot checks can quickly reveal issues that require more scrutiny. Payroll platforms support fraud detection and financial diligence in several ways:
An organisation must create oversight through clear policies, spot checks, and leadership oversight. The right payroll platform can even help people with limited payroll knowledge uncover strange behaviours.
"You won't spot payroll fraud if you keep looking for big changes and payments," says Schoültz. "Most payroll fraudsters siphon money over a long time and across multiple bank accounts, making it harder to detect. That's much easier with paper-based systems, spreadsheets, and older payroll software. But if you can access regular reports and integrate payroll data with other systems, it becomes much harder for people to commit fraud, and much easier for you to catch them if they do."
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Deel Local Payroll, powered by PaySpace.
About Deel Local Payroll:
Deel Local Payroll, powered by PaySpace, revolutionises payroll management. It offers online, multi-country payroll and HR management for businesses from start-ups through to enterprise in over 40 African countries, the United Kingdom, the Middle East, and Brazil.
Cloud-native, Deel Local Payroll, is scalable, configurable, highly secure, and easy-to-use—delivering anytime, anywhere access. It features payroll automation, self-service features, automatic legislation and feature updates, customised reporting, and more.
Since 2024, Deel Local Payroll has been part of Deel, operating as an independent subsidiary, serving its customers through the PaySpace platform.
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