Blaming Migrants Ignores the Real Causes of South Africa’s Economic Crisis
The economic and social conditions in which anti-migrant sentiment has exploded in South Africa include high joblessness and a collapse of government services.
The economic and social conditions in which anti-migrant sentiment has exploded in South Africa include high joblessness and a collapse of government services.
South Africa’s passenger vehicle market remained resilient in the first quarter of 2026, but demand is evolving. Rising affordability pressures, higher fuel costs, the growth of Chinese brands and shifting powertrain preferences are reshaping the automotive landscape.
According to TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Mobility Insights Report, passenger vehicle sales reached 114,517 units in Q1 2026, slightly higher than the 114,246 units recorded in Q4 2025. Year-on-year (YoY) growth eased to 12.6%, down from the stronger performance seen during parts of 2025, but demand remained elevated despite a more uncertain macroeconomic environment.
A Stronger Start, But Growing External Pressures
The report, which provides a first quarter overview, indicates that South Africa entered 2026 on a stronger economic footing. This was supported by easing inflation, lower interest rates over the previous year, reduced load-shedding, and improved financial conditions.
However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated oil price shock have heightened downside risks. In March 2026, inflation increased from 3.1% to 4.0% in April 2026, while the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently raised the prime lending rate by 25-basis points in May 2026. Combined with higher fuel and transport costs, these factors are expected to place renewed pressure on affordability and consumer spending.
“Vehicle demand has not collapsed, but the market is moving into a more selective phase,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Consumers are still buying vehicles, but affordability is no longer only about the purchase price. Fuel costs, financing costs, insurance, servicing, and total cost of ownership are becoming central to the decision.”
Residual Value and the True Cost of Ownership
The report found that residual values are becoming an increasingly important component of vehicle affordability. As finance terms extend beyond six years for many buyers, depreciation and resale performance play a growing role in ownership economics, giving brands that retain value more effectively a competitive advantage.
The shift towards longer financing terms and the use of balloon structures reflects a growing focus on monthly affordability and cash-flow flexibility. However, this trend also increases exposure to residual value risk. Where vehicle values underperform expectations, consumers may face refinancing pressure or negative equity at trade-in, making used vehicle market performance an increasingly critical consideration.
Chinese Brands Reshape the Competitive Landscape
One of the most notable structural shifts is the continued rise of Chinese automotive brands. Chinese car sales grew by 75% YoY in Q1 2026, significantly outpacing traditional OEM growth of 2% and the broader passenger and light commercial vehicle (LCV) market growth of 12.7%. As a result, Chinese brands accounted for more than 19% of new passenger and LCV sales nationally, meaning nearly one in five new vehicles sold in South Africa was from a Chinese manufacturer in Q1 2026.
The shift is no longer driven solely by entry-level pricing. Chinese brands are increasingly competing on technology, features, fuel efficiency, range, warranty offerings, and perceived long-term value. On a combined portfolio basis, Chery Group, including Chery, Jetour, Omoda, and Jaecoo, recorded combined sales of 16,094 units in Q1 2026, positioning itself as a top three automotive player.
“Chinese brands have moved beyond the role of price disruptors. They are becoming structural industry players, influencing dealer networks, financing ecosystems, ownership perceptions, and the wider discussion around localisation and industrial competitiveness,” said Hatea.
Diverging Trends Across New and Used Markets
The new and used vehicle markets continued to show differing trends. NaTIS data indicates that new vehicle registrations increased by 11.6% YoY in Q1 2026, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. In contrast, used vehicle registrations increased by 2.6%, suggesting a modest recovery in the secondary market, although it still trails the stronger momentum seen in new vehicle sales.
The used-to-new registration ratio declined to 2.3 in Q1 2026, the lowest level recorded over the reporting period. While used vehicles still make up the majority at 69% of total registrations, the share of new vehicles has risen to 31%, up from 23% in Q4 2025. This shift has been supported by favourable pricing dynamics, with new vehicle inflation falling to 0.8%, while used vehicle prices remained in deflation at -1.3%.
Confidence Rises, But Caution Remains
Dealer sentiment also reflects the stronger demand environment. New vehicle dealer confidence increased to 67 in Q1 2026, its highest level in 13 years. However, the report cautions that increasing fuel costs, inflation risk, and rising operating expenses could create more challenging conditions in the quarters ahead.
Forward-looking consumer data remains constructive. TransUnion’s Consumer Pulse Survey found that consumers likely to purchase a vehicle in the next few months increased from 19% in Q4 2025 to 22% in Q1 2026. Short-term purchase intent is strongest amongst younger consumers, with 26% of Gen Z and 24% of Millennials indicating plans to buy.
A Gradual Shift in Powertrain Preferences
Powertrain preferences are also evolving. Internal combustion engine vehicles remain the most popular choice, preferred by 49% of consumers in Q1 2026. However, interest in hybrid electric vehicles has grown significantly to 39%, up from 30% in Q4 2025, making hybrids the leading electrified option. Interest in both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids also increased, with each reaching 26%.
“Hybrids are emerging as a practical transition pathway for South African consumers. They offer fuel savings and lower running costs without full dependence on charging infrastructure, which makes them relevant in a market where affordability and operating certainty remain critical,” said Hatea.
A Market Entering Its Next Phase
While domestic demand continues to support the industry, passenger vehicle exports remain under pressure amid trade uncertainty, geopolitical disruption, protectionism, and changing decarbonisation requirements.
“The South African automotive market is not reverting to its previous structure. The next phase will be defined by affordability, value, access to finance and how effectively industry players respond to evolving consumer behaviour,” said Hatea.
The hourglass is running out for South Africa, which has ignored the five American conditions for normalizing relations between the two countries with contempt for a year. These conditions were handed to the Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) exactly a year ago during the party’s historic visit to Washington and the White House, to be […]
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The Emfuleni Local Municipality (Evaton, Sebokeng, Vaal Oewer, Vanderbijlpark, Vereeniging) has adopted an unfunded budget for the ninth consecutive year. Although the Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) did not support the budget for the 2026/27 financial year, the ruling ANC/EFF coalition steamrolled it through. In terms of Section 18 of the Municipal Finance Management Act […]
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In areas that had received the most American aid, the probability of conflict increased by 3.1 percentage points.
The Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) notes with concern the Stellenbosch Municipality’s plans to put a stop to the operations of GoNow e-Scooters in Stellenbosch. The party calls on all role players to pursue constructive engagement rather than unilateral action. While the Freedom Front Plus recognises the need for appropriate safety measures, the party is […]
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Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is once again fooling the public when it comes to housing delivery. His latest stunt of yet another ceremonial handover, this time at Salt River Market, is another in a long line of the Democratic Alliance’s broken promises and meaningless photo opportunities.
The post NOT A SINGLE BRICK: GEORDIN HILL-LEWIS’ CEREMONIAL HOUSING SHAM appeared first on For Good.
Speech by Brett Herron, GOOD Secretary-General & City of Cape Town Mayoral Candidate. *Note to Editor: This speech was given during the GOOD City of Cape Town Mayoral Launch
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The Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) has noted with concern the latest findings by the African Development Bank indicating that Morocco overtook South Africa in 2025 as Africa’s most industrialised economy. While South Africa remains a significant industrial powerhouse on the continent, this development confirms the country’s continuing decline in industrial competitiveness. Years of unreliable […]
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South Africa had the highest rate of suspected digital fraud[1] among African countries analysed, with 3.0% of transactions involving consumers in South Africa being suspected of digital fraud during 2025 – slightly below the global average of 3.8%.
In 2025, the median reported fraud loss among South African consumers who said that they had lost funds to digital fraud (email, online, phone call and text messages) in the previous year, was R11,055 – the second highest in Africa, after Kenya, and well below the global median of R27,879.[2]
These are among the findings in the TransUnion H1 2026 Update: Top Fraud Trends report, which shows that South Africa’s digital fraud landscape has become more complex, with generative AI likely accelerating the scale and sophistication of criminal activity. This has enabled fraudsters to target both consumers and businesses with greater precision and speed.
South African consumers are increasingly facing co-ordinated, identity-driven and cross-channel attacks similar to those seen in mature digital economies. As a result, digital fraud has shifted deeper into the consumer journey: one third (33%) of South African consumers who said they lost money from digital fraud in the last year reported those losses stemmed from third-party seller scams on legitimate ecommerce platforms. This indicates that losses are not occurring because consumers transacted in a suspect or unsafe environment – but because fraudsters successfully embedded themselves into environments that appeared credible, familiar and trusted.
“This signals a market where criminals are exploiting established trust, active accounts and verified digital relationships, and is a clear break from global fraud patterns typically dominated by phishing and vishing – fraudulent phone calls or voice messages designed to deceive consumers into sharing sensitive information or sending money,” said Amritha Reddy, senior director of fraud product management TransUnion Africa. “In South Africa, fraudsters succeed where trust is already established, particularly inside mainstream digital platforms where consumers reasonably expect safety and legitimacy.”
“Criminals are weaponising both consumer trust and emerging technologies,” said Reddy. “As GenAI accelerates the sophistication and scale of criminal operations, the threat landscape is evolving faster than ever for consumers and businesses. Addressing this requires a new generation of identity centric defences that combine advanced analytics, adaptive authentication and multilayered digital fraud detection. Organisations must match fraudsters’ technological innovation to stay ahead of rapidly changing schemes.”
Chart 1: Most Prominent Cause of Fraud Loss
Percentage reporting losing money to these schemes among South Africans who said they lost funds from digital fraud in the last year.
| Type of Fraud | Percentage of Consumers Reporting Losing Money to Fraud Type Among Those Who Said They Lost Money to Fraud in the Last Year |
| Third-party seller scams on legitimate ecommerce sites |
33% |
| Social engineering |
26% |
| Account takeover |
24% |
| Stolen credit card or fraudulent charges |
24% |
| Money mule |
23% |
| Identity theft |
22% |
| Phishing (fraudulent emails, websites, social posts, QR codes, etc. meant to steal personal information) |
21% |
| Smishing (fraudulent text messages meant to steal personal information) |
19% |
| Vishing (fraudulent phone calls or voice messages meant to steal personal information) |
16% |
| Unemployment benefits |
15% |
Source: TransUnion consumer survey
Most Fraud Attempts Occur at Account Login
The suspected digital fraud rate for attempted transactions where the consumer was in South Africa declined from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025, a trend also observed globally. Nevertheless, this decrease does not necessarily indicate reduced criminal activity; rather, it may reflect a shift toward AI-enabled tactics designed to maximise return on investment.
South Africa is one of the few markets where the highest rate of suspected digital fraud attempts* happen at account login, with 3.0.% of account login attempts being flagged as potentially fraudulent, compared to 2.4% at account creation and 0.7% of financial transactions. This trend suggests that attackers are increasingly trying to compromise existing accounts, in contrast to other countries globally where new account creation is a key focus for fraudsters.
“This inversion tells a powerful story that criminals in South Africa are now targeting access using compromised credentials, SIM-swap-enabled entry and social engineering to take over existing accounts,” said Reddy. “This means that vendors and financial institutions need to expand their fraud prevention strategies beyond the new customer onboarding phase, continuing to implement verification throughout the consumer lifecycle – but without the unnecessary friction that will see genuine consumers seeking alternative sites.”
Findings from the survey also show that consumers most preferred top feature when choosing whom to transact with online is confidence that their personal data is secure, with 85% of respondents saying it was very important. This was followed by an easy payment process (80%) and ease of filling out forms or applications (72%).
“The fact that security is the top reported feature shows that consumers are willing to accept friction when completing digital transactions, provided it’s clearly linked to protection,” Reddy said. “As a result, security in South Africa is evolving beyond compliance and emerging as a key driver of brand trust and differentiation.”
Government Sector Most Affected by Digital Fraud Attempts
Suspected digital fraud attempts across Africa[3] in 2025 showed fraudsters focusing on very different industries depending on the country, reflecting local digital behaviours and opportunity points. Globally, the most vulnerable industry was video gaming, where 12.8% of transactions were suspected of digital fraud attempts. Across African countries analysed, gaming also recorded the highest suspected digital fraud rate, driven by Kenya, where 15.6% of gaming transactions were flagged – the highest rate observed for any industry in Africa.
In South Africa, the rate of suspected digital fraud where the consumer was in the country was the most prevalent among government transactions, at 12.5%, highlighting risks tied to public-sector digitalisation.
“Digitalisation has improved access to public services, but it has also created new risks for fraud,” said Reddy. “Fraudsters are leveraging official government branding and service-related messages to impersonate the state and deceive citizens.”
Chart 2: Suspected Digital Fraud Attempts in South Africa, by Sector
| Industry |
Suspected Digital Fraud Attempt Rate 2025 |
Change in volume of suspected digital fraud attempts from 2024 to 2025 |
| Government |
12.5% |
+46% |
| Gaming (online sports betting, poker, etc.) |
11.5% |
+124% |
| Insurance |
7.8% |
+32% |
| Video gaming |
5.5% |
-29% |
| Financial services |
5.3% |
+16% |
| Communities (online dating, forums etc.) |
3.7% |
-42% |
| Logistics |
1.9% |
-98% |
| Retail |
1.1% |
-61% |
| Telecommunications |
0.6% |
-94% |
| Travel & leisure |
0.1% |
-78% |
“South Africa has entered an advanced fraud phase where criminals exploit trust, operate across channels and target established digital relationships rather than weak entry points. Fraud is increasingly occurring inside legitimate marketplaces and impersonated public services, while risk remains consistently highest at login, as it has been on an annual basis.”
“As criminals increasingly weaponise new technologies to carry out sophisticated scams, it’s more important than ever for consumers to safeguard their personal information and to review their credit reports regularly,” said Reddy.
“For businesses, the call to action is clear: fraud strategies must extend beyond compliance and onboarding controls to actively protect trust across the entire digital journey. Organisations that invest in adaptive authentication, identity intelligence and visible security at moments of access will be best positioned to reduce fraud, preserve customer confidence and differentiate their brands in South Africa’s digital economy,” she added.
TransUnion came to its conclusions about digital fraud based on a global survey of 12,730 consumers in 18 countries and regions from Nov. 20–Dec. 9, 2025, and intelligence from its array of TransUnion fraud prevention solutions. To learn more about how TransUnion fraud prevention solutions can help businesses avoid fraud and prevent fraud losses, click here.
Specific country and regional data in the report includes South Africa, Botswana, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, Nicaragua, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Rwanda, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Zambia. Download the TransUnion H1 2026 Update to the Top Fraud Trends Report for more information and insights about the global fraud trends.
[1] Suspected digital fraud attempts reflects those which TransUnion clients determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon client investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation. The country and regional analyses examined transactions in which the consumer or suspected fraudster was located in a select country or region when conducting a transaction. Global statistics represent every country worldwide and not just the select countries and regions.
[2] Exchange rate calculated at R16.69 to the US dollar as per the exchange rate for 29 December 2025.
[3] TransUnion analysed the suspected digital fraud rate in its global intelligence network for the African countries of Botswana, Kenya, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia.
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The Freedom Front Plus (VF Plus) in Langeberg calls for immediate intervention by the Western Cape Minister of Infrastructure, Tertuis Simmers, in the repair of the bridge between Robertson and McGregor as well as the Red Bridge before Bonnievale. It is a dilemma, and the Freedom Front Plus expects solutions to restore normal traffic flow […]
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Economic conditions for ordinary Mozambicans are deteriorating. Poverty has risen, public services are unreliable and there are few decent job opportunities.
