South Africa

By NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber (https://EnergyChamber.org)

Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025 represents a pivotal moment for Africa's fossil fuel industry. His administration's swift reapproval of a USD4.7 billion loan from the U.S. Export-Import Bank (Exim) for TotalEnergies' liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Mozambique — initially greenlit in 2020 during his first term but sent into deep-freeze for the full duration of the Biden years — sets the tone for what could be a transformative era for Africa's energy sector. 

Despite Mozambique's stabilization of security issues and concerns that the transfer of power in America would delay receipt of the loan even further, the Biden Administration refused to release the funds ahead of Trump's inauguration, a decision reflective of the administration's reluctance to support new fossil fuel initiatives throughout Biden's time in office. In contrast, Trump's decisive action within weeks of taking office signals a renewed, positive working relationship between the United States and Africa — one that prioritizes energy development over ideological objections and the Green Agenda's influence. 

The African Energy Chamber (AEC) contends that Africa should seize this potentially brief moment in history and embrace the Trump administration as a partner rather than an opponent. For too long, global pressures have insisted that African nations move toward green energy projects only and leave their fossil fuel resources behind.  

While renewable energy has its place, and will be important to Africa's future, fossil fuels still clearly constitute the backbone of any realistic efforts for African industrialization and economic growth — goals we simply cannot afford to sideline.  

Alignment with Trump's energy-first ethos would mean that Africa could unlock significant funding for wide-ranging fossil fuel projects, and not just the offshore oil and gas ventures that dominate the headlines. The continent should capitalize on all opportunities in onshore projects, wildcat wells (exploratory drilling in unproven areas), and the proliferation of numerous small operators. These avenues lead the way to diversity in Africa's energy portfolio, job creation, and massively strengthened energy security. 

The reapproval of funding for Mozambique LNG is a case in point. The project's revival under Trump demonstrates how quickly thick bureaucratic congestion can dissolve when political will aligns with economic practicality. This USD4.7 billion infusion will boost Mozambique's economy while sending a message to other African nations: Under Trump, at long last, America is open for business.  

In contrast to the previous administration, which openly regarded fossil fuel development with skepticism and disdain, Trump's “drill baby drill” mantra — while rooted in an “America First” agenda — pairs seamlessly with the ambitions of the African oil and gas industry. Africa should adopt a similar mindset and position itself as an attractive destination for American investment dollars. 

Coal's Comeback 

Another of Trump's domestic priorities, no doubt a response to China's unabashed expansion of coal production within its borders, is to revive clean coal production in the U.S. This initiative offers a compelling blueprint for Africa. While coal remains a contentious, harshly criticized resource globally, its advantages are undeniable: It's cheaper to produce, often doesn't require big bank financing, and is abundant across the continent. For African nations grappling with energy poverty, coal can serve as a means to an end, delivering affordable power to millions in the interim while the infrastructure for other energy sources matures. Simply put, Africa deserves to be the last global holdout on coal production and should leverage its coal reserves to meet domestic needs and export demands. Trump's willingness to disregard the international campaign against coal should embolden African leaders to reopen their abandoned coal mines and rest assured that this time around, they'll be able to operate freely, without fear of U.S. opposition. 

Fossil Fuels Unleashed 

Looking beyond coal, over the next four years, Africa has the rare chance to pursue an aggressive fossil fuel agenda. The continent should unite under an “Africa First” banner and adopt its own “drill baby drill” mentality in support of every promising oil exploration and production project, every possible natural gas project, and a multinational effort to slash through regulatory red tape.  

In Nigeria, for instance, the wheels of progress moved agonizingly slowly when it came to passing the Petroleum Industry Act, first proposed in 2008 and not signed into law until 2021. Even after the law was passed, Nigeria has been slow to fully implement it. This kind of inertia deters investment and slows development. A Trump-inspired push to clean up such bureaucratic roadblocks could unleash a wave of prosperous development. Similarly, addressing security issues — like those that drove U.S. firms out of Libya — will be critical to restoring confidence and attracting capital from abroad. 

While the offshore sector will undoubtedly remain a cornerstone of Africa's fossil fuel strategy, the continent's onshore potential is equally vast. Wildcat wells offer high-risk/ high-reward prospects that could uncover new reserves. Meanwhile, instead of relying solely on multinational oil and gas giants, empowerment of more independent companies and indigenous small operators could diversify the industry, build up local entrepreneurship, and ensure the economic benefits are more widespread. It is highly unlikely that the Trump administration, with its emphasis on deregulation and energy independence for its own shores, would obstruct such efforts on ours. Conversely, it may actively encourage them through financing and technical support, as seen with the Exim loan. 

Balancing Development and Climate Realities 

Though critics will argue that this push for fossil fuel proliferation contradicts global climate goals, at the AEC, we insist that the calculations for Africa are simply different.  

Africa accounts for a fraction of global emissions but bears a disproportionate burden when it comes to energy poverty. Fossil fuels offer a realistic and relatively quick path to electrification and industrialization, the proven prerequisites for lifting millions out of poverty. Trump's indifference to international climate orthodoxy, while controversial, gives Africa the much-needed breathing room to prioritize development over decarbonization. This is in no way an outright rejection of renewables but a recognition that fossil fuels can and will facilitate a just transition to green technologies once their capabilities catch up to Africa's current needs. 

Seizing the Moment 

The next four years under Trump could redefine Africa's energy landscape. With U.S. interference a thing of the past, Africa can pursue a multi-pronged energy strategy. With a ramp-up in natural gas to meet global demand, a coal revival to power its own grids, and on and offshore opportunities tapped into, Africa could finally secure its full resource base.  

However, this approach will require bold leadership. Governments will have to eliminate obstructive policies and address security challenges head-on to secure foreign investments. The payoff could be immense: energy abundance, economic growth, and a partnership with the U.S. that is stronger than ever before. 

For example, Nigeria's oil and gas sector has been hampered by regulatory uncertainty and security threats in the Niger Delta. A Nigerian “drill baby drill” mindset could accelerate regulatory, social, and economic reforms needed to address the Niger Delta's deep-rooted instability. This kind of mindset could restart stalled projects and attract American firms eager to invest in a Trump-approved climate. Likewise, in Libya, a resolution to security concerns could lure back U.S. companies that fled during years of instability, reviving a once-thriving oil industry. Across the continent, small operators could flourish under a lighter regulatory touch, drilling wildcat wells and tapping into overlooked reserves. 

South Africa, with its vast coal deposits, could take the lead on clean coal technologies to balance affordability and environmental concerns. Smaller nations with untapped coal reserves could follow Trump's lead in defying global pressures against production. The result would be a continent less dependent on foreign aid and more capable of powering its own future. 

Trump's presidency offers Africa a chance to unapologetically double down on its fossil fuel potential. The USD4.7 billion Mozambique loan is just the beginning — a proof of concept for what collaboration with the U.S. can achieve. By embracing this partnership, Africa can shed the shackles of the Biden era and chart a course toward energy sovereignty.  

The tools are all there: offshore rigs, onshore fields, wildcat wells, established mines, and a willing ally in Washington. The question that remains is whether Africa's leaders have the courage to stand up to the anti-carbon lobby. 

Trump's second term could be remembered as the moment Africa's fossil fuel industry came into its own — as a partner to the U.S. in a shared vision of energy abundance. With four years of clear skies ahead, there is no question that Africa should build, mine, and yes, drill, baby, drill like never before.  

If we don't act now, it might be a very long wait for an opportunity like this one to present itself again. 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.