Trade-enabling infrastructure across African markets is showing broad improvement, while business confidence and macroeconomic stability are strengthening across the continent.
This is according to Issue 5 of the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer (ATB), which covers: Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.
“Across the 10 markets we surveyed, firms reported improvements across every major infrastructure category, including power, telecommunications, road, rail, ports and digital border systems. This marks the first time since the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer’s launch that all infrastructure indicators have improved simultaneously, reflecting growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade facilitation across the continent”, says Philip Myburgh, Head of Trade for Business and Commercial Banking at Standard Bank Group.
“Together, these 10 markets account for 68% of Sub‑Saharan Africa’s GDP, and the shifts highlighted in Issue 5 of ATB point to a more positive outlook for cross‑border commerce on the continent.”
First launched in 2022 and updated annually, the ATB reflects data collected across these 10 markets in 2025 through its combined quantitative indicators and firm‑level survey insights. It combines a Quantitative Trade Barometer based on three-year averaged macroeconomic indicators and a Survey Trade Barometer based on responses from 2,218 firms, approximately 71% of which are SMEs.
Growth and Confidence:
Growth across ATB markets is trending towards 4.3% in 2026, supported by moderating inflation in seven of the 10 economies and improvements in external debt positions. The business confidence index rose to 65, with most firms expecting stronger turnover and more stable trading conditions. Commodity strength, particularly in gold, platinum and copper, has provided a further uplift for exporters and foreign exchange earners.
Accelerating Integration
Awareness of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) reached 50%, with firms citing easier movement of goods, wider market access and industrialisation benefits. Early AfCFTA enabled shipments demonstrate tangible operational progress.
East Africa
East Africa emerges as the strongest-performing subregion in Issue 5 edition of the ATB, recording a 10-percentage-point increase in export activity. The ATB attributes this acceleration primarily to policy coordination and trade facilitation reforms across the region.
Kenya is playing a central role in this shift as a regional integration anchor. The recent Kenya–Uganda trade reclassification, which treats goods originating in Kenya as intra-regional transfers rather than imports, has reduced administrative friction within the East African Community. In parallel, Kenya and Tanzania’s renewed commitments to remove non-tariff barriers signal improving trade coordination that had previously constrained cross-border flows.
Combined with major corridor upgrades across the Northern and Central transport routes, these reforms are reducing border delays, improving logistics predictability and strengthening supply-chain reliability. For businesses operating in the region, this is translating into lower transaction costs and greater confidence in scaling cross-border operations.
Taken together, the ATB suggests East Africa’s export momentum reflects a shift from policy intent toward operational trade integration across the region.
US Tariffs, AGOA and China Zero-Tariffs:
Recent shifts in global trade policy, including tariff changes affecting access to the United States, are contributing to declining engagement with US trade partners among firms surveyed in the ATB. At the same time, businesses report increasing engagement with Asian markets, particularly China, citing competitive pricing, product variety, faster response times and supply-chain reliability as key drivers of sourcing decisions.
Digital Systems Expansion
Digital payments now facilitate 78% of cross‑border sales and 79% of purchases, driven by bank‑led rails, mobile‑money integration and the growing use of the Pan‑African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), which enables faster settlement in local currencies and reduces reliance on hard‑currency intermediaries.
Climate Concerns:
Climate‑related pressures remain a constraint, with 38% of firms reporting demand shifts due to climate impacts and 32% citing productivity losses, underscoring the need for resilient infrastructure and production systems.
ATB measures overall tradability using the following seven pillars:
- Trade Openness
What it covers: the degree to which firms engage in cross‑border trade (participation, partners, volumes, outlook). Businesses deepened regional activity, with 59% of exporters selling into Africa; overall participation eased on currency and cost pressures, but most exporters expect volumes to rise. Asia remains the top input source; Middle East sourcing is rising off a low base.
- Access to Finance
What it covers: availability and affordability of funding (credit, rates, supplier/customer credit, digital‑finance depth). Rate‑cut cycles in Kenya, Ghana and South Africa improved affordability; digital credit tools widened SME access. The credit‑access index rose from 43 to 49.
- Macroeconomic Stability
What it covers: growth, inflation, FX dynamics, debt, commodity prices, business confidence. Disinflation, improved FX earnings and lower debt supported certainty for firms; however, 38% reported climate‑linked demand changes and 32% reported productivity losses.
- Infrastructure
What it covers: power, roads, rail, ports, airports, telecoms, water systems and customs processes. Firms reported improvements across all infrastructure categories, including grid‑stabilising storage and transmission lines, expanded 4G/5G coverage, key highway upgrades and digitised border systems that cut clearance times and improve corridor predictability
- Governance and Economy (Government Support)
What it covers: regulatory environment, customs digitisation, policy reforms affecting trade friction. Perceptions improved as governments expanded single‑window and border‑modernisation efforts. Across the 10 markets surveyed, seven recorded an increase in perceived government support for cross-border trade, reflecting policy reforms aimed at easing logistics processes, improving customs efficiency and supporting regional trade flows. Still, 79% of firms view tax relief as the most critical measure to support trade.
- Foreign Trade Dynamics
What it covers: trade‑partner preferences, barriers, and external shocks (US tariffs, AGOA, China’s zero‑tariff stance). Asia is now the most preferred region for many firms; Europe retains strength as an export destination; positive perceptions of trading with the rest of the world rose to 21%.
- Trade Financial Behaviour
What it covers: how firms pay and get paid (EFTs, mobile money, international transfers, PAPSS adoption vs. cash reliance). The shift to digital is decisive: 78–79% of cross‑border transactions are now digital. Domestic cash reliance remains high overall but is declining in key markets as low‑cost acceptance tools scale.
Outlook
Africa’s trade outlook is being reshaped by integration, improved infrastructure, firmer macro fundamentals and rising business confidence. At the same time, geopolitical developments, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, introduce uncertainty around energy prices and supply-chains that could affect trade costs in the near-term.
“As AfCFTA implementation deepens, and as more countries harmonise customs, regulatory frameworks and logistics platforms, Africa’s ability to expand industrial capacity, scale regional value-chains and strengthen competitiveness is set to accelerate”, concludes Myburgh.
Bourbon Mirage
Tax revenue: Tax Revenue has increased from R100 billion in 1994 to R1,4 trillion in 2016 in South Africa. Not only does this indicate the efficiency of tax collection, but also a broadening tax base in South Africa. Essentially this means that an accessible target market for start-ups has increased and should continue to increase.