Police Crime Statistics Cannot Be Taken Seriously

Crime can only thrive in a country where the same high-ranking officials tasked with protecting the public from criminals are also involved in some of the country’s biggest crime syndicates.

A report released today by the Institute for Security Studies shows that only 22% of South Africans still trust the police.

Moreover, crime statistics increasingly fuel uncertainty about actual crime levels, as there is growing doubt about their accuracy.

The statistics released by the police today – which in many respects indicate a decrease in crime for the July-to-September quarter compared to between April and June this year – should, therefore, be approached with cautious optimism.

Public confidence in the police will undoubtedly plummet further as information is divulged to the Madlanga Commission and the parliamentary ad hoc committee.

This raises the question: Where should a crime-ridden country turn when its law-enforcers are the ones in the dock?

Why would a constable or sergeant refuse a bribe when his minister and deputy national commissioner are allegedly accepting them? Police morality has been destroyed at the highest level.

The various police divisions face major challenges, particularly due to budget constraints, staff shortages, poor resources, lack of expertise in specialised fields, work overload and low morale.

Annual police reports reveal the following:

Forensic services: Overloaded laboratories have a 33% backlog in DNA analysis, with a material adverse impact on prosecutions.

Detective service: This division achieves only 43% of its targets. The service has lost more than 8 400 experienced detectives since 2016. Overworked detectives often handle hundreds of cases.

Crime intelligence: It is no secret that there are serious and growing shortcomings, while evidence given before the Madlanga Commission raises even more questions about this unit.

Criminal Records Centre: poor data processing, exacerbated by forensic support problems.

At grass-roots level, the biggest challenges include an ageing vehicle fleet and corruption – generals and ministers are not the only ones targeted.

Regarding the credibility of crime data and statistics, DefenceWeb reported on 13 November that the Auditor-General (AG) labelled up to 30% of all police data “unreliable” for various reasons.

The AG further found that forensic shortcomings, corruption and the manipulation of figures paint a distorted picture of crime.

Statistics South Africa’s Victims of Crime Survey shows massive under-reporting of crime, especially sexual offences, because the public has lost faith in the police service.

It is against this backdrop that today’s crime statistics should be evaluated. Clearly, South Africa cannot say with certainty what the crime situation in the country is.

Key statistics released today:

• Murder decreased by 11% in the period between July and September, compared to April to June (from 6 545 to 5 794).
• The feared “trio crimes” are also down: carjackings by 669, robberies at residential premises by 864 and robberies at commercial premises by 829.
• Transit heists decreased by 18 incidents and armed robbery by 3 689.
• Sexual offences are slightly higher (from 12 765 to 12 787).

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