Revenue collection projected to decline

Revenue collection is expected to fall by some R56 billion below the 2023 Budget predictions, according to the National Treasury Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS).

The MTBPS notes that slowing commodity exports, slower growth, downward revisions of the tax base growth, slowing corporate tax collections and lower net VAT collections have all impacted tax revenue.

The 2023 Budget had projected collections would reach some R1.78 trillion but that has now been revised down to R1.73 trillion.

“In recent years, revenue collection has benefited from a pattern of high prices for South Africa’s commodity exports. In the current year, commodity prices have fallen faster than expected and value‐added tax (VAT) refund claims have risen, resulting in revenue collections projected to be R56.8 billion below 2023 Budget estimates.

“The moderate revenue outlook is limited by the domestic economic outlook and negative shifts in the global economy,” the department said.

Key factors which have affected revenue collection in the first half of 2023/24 include:

• Significantly reduced mining sector profitability. Mining provisional corporate tax collections fell by R24.6 billion or 55.4 percent relative to the same period in 2022/23. Lower commodity prices, weaker global growth, increased incidence of power cuts and logistical constraints have weighed heavily on the sector.
• VAT refund payments are R21.5 billion higher relative to the same period last year due to stronger-than-expected exports; increased investments in embedded generation; and higher costs of doing business, including the use of more expensive road rather than rail transport. Stronger import VAT collections partially offset robust VAT refund payments.
• A sustained recovery in earnings and higher bonus payments have benefited personal income tax collections, with employees’ tax from the finance sector driving the strong year-to-date growth.

“The tax-to-GDP ratio is expected to decline to 24.7 percent in 2023/24 from 25.1 percent in 2022/23. A recovery in this ratio depends on more sustainable economic growth.

“Main budget revenue estimates for 2023/24 have been lowered by R44.4 billion compared with the 2023 Budget, mainly driven by lower estimates for tax revenue, while National Revenue Fund receipts have been revised up by R11.3 billion mainly due to higher expected revaluation profits from foreign-currency transactions,” Treasury said.

Future revenue

The department said due to the increased fiscal consolidation that is required, “the Minister of Finance will propose tax measures to raise additional revenue of R15 billion in 2024/25 in the 2024 Budget”.

“Tax revenues are expected to increase to R2.1 trillion, or 25.1 percent of GDP, by 2026/27. Revenue collection, however, is projected to fall short of 2023 Budget estimates by R121.4 billion between 2024/25 and 2025/26, with tax buoyancies generally lower over the medium term.

“Relative to the 2023 Budget, main budget revenue estimates for the next two years have been lowered by R152 billion, mainly driven by downward revisions to tax revenue projections. Non-tax revenue estimates for the next two years have also been reduced by R24.4 billion due to lower mineral and petroleum royalties and departmental receipts. Payments to the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) are revised up,” the department said.

Treasury insisted that improved economic growth and further gains in tax administration are critical for improving tax revenues.

“The sharp contraction in commodity prices now under way suggests that the windfall tax receipts that South Africa enjoyed in recent years have come to an end. Under-collections in corporate income tax receipts relative to 2023 Budget estimates flow through to the outer years. Stronger VAT refund payments over the medium term partly reflect higher renewable energy investments and responses to structural constraints in logistics and fuel refinery capacity.

“The outlook for most major tax bases has also been revised lower relative to the 2023 Budget. Personal income tax collections are marginally better than expected due to near-term gains; however, medium-term prospects for employment growth remain muted.

“Although South Africa’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains relatively resilient, stronger economic growth and further gains in tax administration are needed to improve tax revenues over the medium to long term,” the department said. – SAnews.gov.za