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South Africa’s Credit Market in Q3 2025: Strategic Moves to Manage Risk
-
Vehicle asset finance originations continued to surge, driven by younger consumers and prime and below risk tiers
-
Credit card originations grew, as higher demand was met with lower new account credit limits
-
Personal loan growth and risk patterns diverged amongst bank and non-bank lenders
TransUnion’s Q3 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report highlights key trends in the South Africa credit market: vehicle asset finance continued its recovery, with stable account volumes and rising balances supported by longer loan terms and more affordable vehicle choices. Credit card usage expanded, with total book balances growing faster than account volumes, even as average balances per card remained stable and new account credit limits were reduced. Non-bank personal loans surged, driven by higher-risk consumers, though elevated delinquencies underscore the importance of strong affordability checks and consumer safeguards.
These shifting patterns in credit demand, usage and risk occurred against the backdrop of a cautiously improving economy. A 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut in July, driven by favourable inflation trends, gave consumers some relief. However, unemployment remained high[1] at 31.9% for the quarter, highlighting persistent labour pressures that constrained the wallets of many consumers.
Within this context, the credit market showed signs of strategic adjustment. Consumers — especially younger cohorts — relied more on credit to manage day-to-day expenses and cash flow, while lenders recalibrated growth and risk strategies.
Vehicle Asset Finance Recovery Extended
South Africa’s vehicle finance market grew for the third consecutive quarter, driven by younger consumers in prime and below-prime risk tiers. New account originations rose 17.2% year-over-year (YoY), with the average new loan amount increasing to R412,000, up from R400,962 a year earlier.
Growth was supported by a shift in the used-to-new financing ratio, which fell from 2.67 in Q3 2020 to 1.03 in Q3 2025. Near-parity between new and used financing reflects the availability of budget-friendly new models, often compact or entry-level, that have narrowed the cost gap.
Consumers also opted for longer loan terms, prioritising monthly affordability over total lifetime financing cost. In Q3 2025, 49.6% of loans were for 72 months or longer, up from 38.2% four years ago and 45.6% in Q3 2024.
First-time buyer participation remained strong at 42% of originations, slightly up from 40% a year earlier. Nearly one-third (32%) of originations were to Gen Z consumers (born 1995–2010). Among first-time buyers, 80% were prime or below[2], compared to 48% for existing borrowers.
Account-level delinquencies stayed elevated at 7.2%, which underscores the need for early warning and pre-delinquency outreach, especially for borrowers showing signs of payment strain and increased reliance on credit.
“The market is stabilising away from the post-pandemic skew toward used vehicles, supporting consumers’ preferences for warranty coverage and predictable maintenance while expanding inclusion and access,” said Hatea. “In an increasingly competitive market, lenders need to calibrate loan terms, deposits, and residual values to match current conditions and customise products and insurance bundles for segments returning to new purchases.”
Credit Cards Reinforced Role as Financial Buffers for Consumers
Consumers remained under pressure: more than four in ten (41%) households said their income was not keeping up with inflation in Q3 2025, and 77% listed inflation for everyday goods as a top concern, according to TransUnion’s Q3 Consumer Pulse Study.
As consumers sought liquidity amid these concerns, credit card originations rose 13.8% YoY, although average credit limits on new cards issued fell 9.8% YoY. Outstanding balances increased 7.7% YoY, and average balances per card were up 2.6% YoY. The risk mix of card originations shifted towards higher risk borrowers: subprime consumers comprised 58.3% of new cards opened in Q3 2025, up from 52.4% a year earlier, while the share held by prime and above borrowers declined.
Lower credit limits on new cards likely reflect lenders’ efforts to manage affordability and mitigate risk exposure, even as originations skewed toward higher-risk borrowers.
Account-level delinquency increased to 12.7%. This, along with a heavier subprime mix, stable balances, and lower credit lines suggests that lenders have deliberately shifted their focus to riskier borrowers to fuel growth.
Consumers also managed their financial obligations by taking out additional credit. This was evident in the Q3 2025 TransUnion Consumer Pulse Report which found that nearly one third (30%) of surveyed consumers stated that they took an additional credit product to pay off an existing credit product during the quarter.
“While lenders seek growth, they are simultaneously tightening credit lines and deploying early interventions to protect portfolio quality,” said Hatea. “Dynamic credit line strategies and early interventions are key. Expanding pre-delinquency outreach and offering short-term hardship solutions can prevent roll-through into missed payments beyond three months, especially for subprime consumers carrying larger balances.”
Bank and Non-Bank Personal Loan Trends Diverged Further
Differences in growth and risk patterns between bank and non-bank lenders widened in Q3 2025. Banks expanded cautiously, focusing on larger, purposeful loans, while non-bank lenders grew through smaller, short-term loans aimed at higher-risk segments. These shifts reflect differing consumer targeting strategies of the two lender groups and increasing affordability pressures on higher-risk borrowers.
Bank-issued personal loan originations rose 7.6% YoY, with average new loan amounts up 9.3% YoY, reinforcing a trend toward larger loans for purposeful borrowing. However, the number of consumers carrying a personal loan balance fell 3.6% from the previous quarter, suggesting loan consolidation and/or repayment by borrowers. Account-level delinquency reached 28.1%, indicating repayment strain despite banks’ disciplined approach to growth and proactive measures to manage long-term defaults.
Non-bank personal loan originations rose 8.5% YoY, but average new personal loan amounts fell by the same margin of 8.5%. Average balances per account dropped 31.9% YoY, showing that these loans are increasingly used for short-term or emergency needs rather than financing larger purchases or debt consolidation. Risk indicators deteriorated sharply: account-level delinquencies surged upwards to 49.4%, highlighting rising financial stress among non-bank personal loan borrowers, compounded by a greater concentration of subprime consumers.
“Personal loan lenders need to balance access with sustainability,” said Hatea. “Stronger affordability checks and better early warning systems can prevent roll-through into deeper delinquency. Proactive engagement with at-risk consumers and tailored hardship solutions will help preserve portfolio health while maintaining access to credit.”
Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)
|
Product |
YoY origination growth |
Serious account-level delinquency rate* |
| Credit card |
13.80% |
12.70% |
| Bank personal loan |
7.60% |
28.10% |
| Non-bank personal loan |
8.50% |
49.40% |
| Clothing accounts |
9.85% |
25.60% |
| Retail instalment |
-1.45% |
27.40% |
| Retail revolving |
5.20% |
17.90% |
| Home loans |
10.68% |
7.60% |
| Vehicle finance |
17.20% |
7.20% |
*Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears
With an improving macroeconomic environment, driven by moderating inflation and associated interest rate cuts, continued shifts in the consumer credit market are to be expected. However, Hatea concluded: “Even though there are cautious signs of improvement, lenders and policymakers must remain agile when balancing growth with resilience. Refining segmentation strategies and enhancing early risk detection will be key to supporting consumer financial health and maintaining long-term portfolio stability.”
[1] Trading Economics South Africa Unemployment Rate
[2] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).
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South Africa’s Auto Sector Sees Strong Growth Amid Evolving Consumer and Insurance Trends
- New passenger car sales hit multi-year highs, totalling 102,268 units in Q1 2025
- Younger buyers and budget-conscious consumers reshape the financing and brand landscape
- South Africa’s younger car buyers are turning to TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, reshaping the automotive marketing playbook
- New insights on insurance trends highlight growing risk of uninsured vehicles
The latest TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report (formerly the Vehicle Pricing Index) for Q1 2025 highlights a strong rebound in the country’s automotive market. This recovery has been driven by improved consumer sentiment, declining interest rates, access to retirement savings through two-pot withdrawals, and rising real wages. According to naamsa data, new passenger vehicle sales continued their upward trajectory in the first quarter, with monthly volumes averaging over 34,000 units, the highest levels seen since Q3 2015.
Affordability remains a key driver of vehicle purchasing and financing decisions. Creative financing options, longer ownership cycles, and the growing availability of value-oriented models are significantly reshaping consumer behaviour, particularly among younger and first-time buyers. The Q1 2025 TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights report highlights that several emerging brands offering competitively priced vehicles have recorded strong year-over-year growth, contributing to the overall surge in new vehicle sales.
“South African consumers are returning to the vehicle market with a clear focus on value and flexibility,” says Lee Naik, CEO TransUnion Africa. “We’re seeing a continued shift away from traditional premium segments in favour of more accessible alternatives that meet evolving needs and budgets.”
Insurance Trends Reveal Shifting Landscape and Rising Risk
The Q1 2025 report introduces new data on insurance-linked vehicle asset finance (VAF). As of early 2025, only 39% of insured vehicle owners had financed vehicles, down from 44% in 2020. This signals a rise in alternative financing or lapses in insurance post-purchase, especially concerning as TransUnion’s 2024 Insurance Survey found that 25% of vehicle users had driven uninsured in the past six months.
This trend has implications for lenders, who face greater asset risk in the event of write-offs without insurance recovery, and for insurers, whose portfolios may now carry increased exposure. To mitigate these risks, strategies such as bundled insurance, usage-based coverage and low-cost flexible insurance models are growing in relevance.
Used Vehicle Momentum Slows as New Sales Lead Recovery
While used vehicles have dominated financing trends in recent years, Q1 2025 marked a notable shift back toward new vehicle purchases, driven by easing interest rates, improved entry-level model availability, and aggressive manufacturer incentives. Notably, the influx of competitively priced Chinese models has attracted budget-conscious buyers away from the used market, fuelling fresh growth in new vehicle registrations.
“Consumers are holding onto their cars for an average of six to eight years, compared to the previous five years, a trend that reflects affordability constraints and a more cautious approach to ownership,” says Naik.
Affordability and Flexibility Drive Change
The report reveals that shifting consumer preferences are reshaping the competitive landscape, with some established manufacturers experiencing year-over-year sales declines while more affordable and value-driven entrants continue to gain market share.
“The definition of value is changing,” says Naik. “It’s no longer just about the price tag, it’s about financing flexibility, long-term ownership costs, and trust in the product. That’s what’s driving consumer decisions today.”
Social Media's Growing Influence on South African Car Buyers
Generation Z’s1 rising influence, with a 27.9% year-on-year increase in vehicle finance volumes, highlights why social media has become essential for automotive brands aiming to attract younger buyers. As South Africans spend over 3.5 hours daily on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, 76% of users now turn to social media for product research, pushing automotive brands toward digital-first strategies with influencer campaigns, short-form videos, and interactive content, yet South Africa’s low social media ad spend signals a major untapped growth opportunity for marketers.
Social platforms are reshaping how South African consumers research, engage with, and purchase vehicles, particularly among Gen Z and Millennials1 who expect personalised, digital-first experiences. To stay competitive, brands are adopting influencer collaborations, platform-specific strategies, AI-enabled targeting, and immersive tools like augmented reality and virtual reality. Social commerce is gaining ground as buyers look for seamless, in-app journeys from browsing to booking.
Economic Outlook: Growth with Caution
The broader economic outlook for South Africa in 2025 remains cautiously optimistic, with GDP expected to grow by 1.4%, driven primarily by household consumption. While industrial output remains under pressure, consumer-driven sectors, particularly retail and vehicle sales, continue to show resilience. Vehicle export activity rose modestly by 0.4% year-over-year in Q1 2025, signalling a gradual recovery following the sharp decline in the previous quarter.
“The strong recovery in new vehicle sales is a positive sign,” says Naik. “But sustaining this growth will require policy certainty, infrastructure investment, and structural reforms. Without these, the economy remains vulnerable.”
“The South African automotive sector is adapting to new consumer behaviours and market forces. The insurance gap, affordability options, credit access and rising Gen Z1 participation will shape the road ahead. Collaboration across industry players is vital for long-term growth,” concludes Naik.
Read the full TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report here.
1 Generation X (Gen X): Born 1965–1980; Millennials (Gen Y): Born 1981–1996; Gen Z (Generation Z) Born 1997–2012
ENDS
Notes to Editors: To provide you with timely market insights, we are updating our reporting structure.
Starting this quarter, the Vehicle Pricing Index will be renamed the TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report, reflecting our broader focus on mobility trends. Vehicle Finance data will now be included in the TransUnion South Africa Industry Insights Report (IIR).
More Than Two-Thirds of South Africans Said They Were Recently Targeted With Fraud
- 68% of South Africans reported they were targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud from August to December 2024 but did not become a victim
- Phishing, smishing and third-party seller scams on legitimate retail websites were the most frequently cited methods consumers said fraudsters used to trick them
- In 2024, gaming (online betting, poker etc) had the highest suspected digital fraud attempt rate in South Africa
Sixty-eight percent of South Africans TransUnion surveyed from 21 November to 9 December 2024 indicated that they had been targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last three months, with 13% saying that they had become victims. Among those who said they were targeted, the most common reported schemes were phishing, where fraudulent emails, websites, social posts or QR codes are meant to steal personal data (33%), smishing where fraudulent text messages try to trick the user into sharing data (31%), and third-party scams on legitimate online retail sites (28%).
In a separate question in that same survey, one third (33%) said that they had lost money to email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last year. Nearly one third (32%) of those who said they lost money reported it happening via third-party seller scams on legitimate online retail sites. This was followed by 26% who lost money via money mule scams where users are solicited to transfer or move illegally acquired money on behalf of someone else, and 23% who lost money via stolen credit card or fraudulent charges.
These and other findings came from research used for building the newly released TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) H1 2025 Update to the State of Omnichannel Fraud Report, which shows how South African consumers continue to be targeted by fraudsters through a wide range of channels.
“With South Africa having the second greatest number of smartphone connections in Sub-Saharan Africa, with people using mobile phones to conduct their everyday business, connect with friends, or keep in touch with family, it’s easy to understand why digital fraud would be such a common tactic among fraudsters targeting this region,” said Amritha Reddy, senior director of fraud solutions at TransUnion Africa. "While cybercriminals will attack at any time using any channel, they appear to focus on channels most popular in the regions they are targeting.”
Nearly one third (31%) South African respondents indicated that they were not aware of being targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud at all, which raises questions as to whether these respondents were in fact targeted, yet simply unaware of the threat.
Based on the TransUnion study, South Africa had the greatest percentage of respondents among countries surveyed in Africa who said they fell victim to email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the second half of 2024. In contrast, Zambia had the lowest percentage of consumers who said they fell victim to fraud in the countries surveyed in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Table 1: Fraud Types Most Frequently Used to Target Consumers in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Last Three Months
| Country | Targeted and fell victim | Targeted but didn’t fall victim | Not targeted | Most reported fraud scheme |
| South Africa | 13% | 55% | 31% | Phishing |
| Kenya | 11% | 71% | 19% | Smishing |
| Namibia | 11% | 52% | 37% | Vishing |
| Rwanda | 10% | 57% | 33% | Money mule |
| Zambia | 9% | 70% | 21% | Smishing |
Source: TransUnion Consumer Pulse Survey of 1,000 people in South Africans in December 2024
Communities and Video Gaming Among Top Industries Targeted by Suspected Digital Fraud
Globally, TransUnion determined that communities (online forums and dating sites) experienced the highest rate of suspected digital fraud[1] attempts in 2024. Nearly 12% of all attempted transactions within communities last year were suspected to be digital fraud. This was closely followed by video gaming (11%), with gaming (including online betting, poker, etc.) at 8% and retail (8%) rounding out the top four.
The logistics industry, which has seen growth in shipping fraud (often perpetrated by organised crime rings), saw the greatest suspected digital fraud volume growth globally in 2024, up more than 100% over 2023. That being said, the fraud rate remains at a relatively modest 3%. Gaming also saw a significant year-over-year (YoY) volume change, up 20%. Telecommunications (-79%), insurance (-29%) and video gaming (-23%) saw the greatest decreases in suspected digital fraud volume YoY.
“Digital fraud on community platforms is by no means a new phenomenon. In 2024, it appears that fraudsters targeted these areas with a renewed vigour,” said Reddy. “Cybercriminals take advantage of the trust inherent on community-based platforms, and target members with a wide range of scammer solicitations, the most reported type of digital fraud in communities.”
For attempted transactions where the consumer or fraudster was located in South Africa, gaming experienced the highest suspected digital fraud rate in 2024 at 6.3% with an 8.1% decrease in the volume of suspected digital fraud from 2023. The only South African industries in which suspected digital fraud increased YoY were insurance and communities.
“It is encouraging to see that attempts at digital fraud have decreased across all but two of the surveyed industries in South Africa,” Reddy says. “Organisations that draw on identity, device and behavioural insights to help them interact with legitimate consumers while mitigating fraud risk are more likely to protect themselves and their customers from the scourge of digital fraud.”
Table 2: Highest Digital Fraud Rates Across Leading Industries in South Africa
| Industry |
Suspected digital fraud attempt rate 2024 |
Change in volume of suspected digital fraud attempts from 2023 to 2024 |
| Gaming |
6.3% |
-8.1% |
| Telecommunications |
6.2% |
-58.5% |
| Financial services |
6.1% |
-29.6% |
| Video gaming |
6.0% |
-67.2% |
| Insurance |
5.6% |
166.5% |
| Communities |
5.0% |
4.0% |
| Retail |
2.9% |
-8.9% |
| Travel & leisure |
0.5% |
-87.0% |
Source: TransUnion TruValidate™
Fraud Comes with a Heavy Cost to Consumers
Consumers faced significant losses due to fraud. Among consumers TransUnion surveyed in 18 countries and regions in November and December 2024, 29% said they lost money due to email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last year. The survey determined that the median amount those consumers said they lost due to fraud in the past year was R32,447. For those who said they lost money due to fraud in South Africa, the median stated amount lost was R12,518[2].
TransUnion came to its conclusions about digital fraud based on intelligence from TransUnion TruValidate.
Specific country and regional data in the report includes South Africa, Botswana, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Rwanda, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Zambia. Download the TransUnion H1 2025 Update to the State of Omnichannel Fraud Report for more information and insights about the global fraud trends.
[1] The rate or percentage of suspected digital fraud attempts reflects those which TransUnion customers determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon customer investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation — compared to all transactions assessed. The country and regional analyses examined transactions in which the consumer or suspected fraudster was located in a select country or region when conducting a transaction. Global statistics represents every country worldwide and not just the select countries and regions.
[2] Based on the exchange rate on 6 Jan. 2025
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TransUnion South Africa Busts Three Short-Term Insurance Industry Myths
Every industry has its myths, and the short-term insurance environment is no exception: leading industry players plan their growth strategies around perceptions of a limited pool of customers, focusing mostly on pricing strategies to attract new business, and finding ways to avoid consumers perceived as too risky.
The best way to confirm or ‘bust’ industry myths is to test them through experiments and data analysis to reveal the truth – and that’s exactly what TransUnion South Africa did with data it holds in the short-term insurance sector.
“South African consumers remain under pressure despite recent interest rate cuts, making this an opportune moment for insurers to rethink their customer acquisition and retention strategies – and to challenge the truisms they’ve relied on in recent years,” said Schalk Fischer, insurance lead at TransUnion South Africa. “To drive better outcomes, insurers must evolve and adapt their strategies to respond to changing market conditions, drawing on risk-management solutions that feature unique data and advanced analytics.”
Myth 1: With stagnant total policy volumes, the only way for an insurer to grow is to win customers from other insurers.
In assessing all new short-term insurance policies taken out between April 2024 and March 2025, TransUnion found that only 17% of new policies were opened by consumers moving to another insurer. Another 37% involved ‘policy splitting’, where consumers moved cover of one of their assets to a new provider, but did not move their whole portfolio.
This means that roughly 54% of new policies are opened due to churn – a significant portion, but certainly not the overwhelming portion that many insurers believe it to be.
“This data shows key growth opportunities for insurers lie among consumers who are new to insurance. In fact, 33% of new policies opened during the time of the study were taken out by consumers who had not had an insurance premium in the previous 24 months,” Fischer said. “While the short-term industry will always be very competitive, there are growth opportunities outside of working aggressively to attract customers from other insurers.”
Myth 2: Loyalty in short-term insurance is dead. Price is the primary variable.
With many consumers scrambling for cost savings, price is perceived to be the most important differentiator between insurers, along with being seen as the main reason that consumers leave one insurer for another.
TransUnion’s analysis showed that 13% of insured consumers who cancel their insurance eventually return to their original insurance provider over time, without switching to another insurer in the interim.
This brand loyalty is fairly consistent between different distribution channels: 9% for banks’ insurance offerings, 11% for brokers, and 14% for direct insurers.
“These findings highlight that, while insurance pricing is certainly a leading consideration among consumers, it is evident that brand loyalty is still a driving factor,” Fischer said. “Marketing and acquisition strategies clearly focus on price, but there’s a greater than expected opportunity to build loyalty that will either retain customers or encourage them to return to brands they have trusted before.”
Myth 3: The new-to-insurance segment is small and only includes risky younger consumers.
TransUnion’s analysis revealed that one in three (33%) consumers who took out policies between April 2024 and March 2025 were new to insurance – they did not have short-term insurance payments linked to their identity number in the previous 24 months.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that all newly insured consumers were uninsured before. Some may have previously been covered under their partner or spouse, and later separated their insurance portfolios, or they could have been young adults who sought their own cover after being included in their parents’ policies.
“These findings show that insurers need to expand the scope of how they segment their target audiences, as new-to-insurance consumers are not always who they’re perceived to be,” Fischer adds.
The analysis revealed additional insights into consumers taking out a policy for the first time. Only 6% were aged 18 to 24 years – perceived to be the riskiest consumers – while the greatest portion of these consumers (36%) were aged 25 to 35 years, followed by 36 to 45 year olds, who took out 25% of new policies. It’s clear, then, that consumers aged 25 to 45 present the greatest opportunity for insurers.
In overlaying loyalty data with these findings, it emerged that only 1% of 18 to 24 year olds shopped around for a better deal once they were granted cover, while less than a quarter (24%) of 25 to 35 year olds shopped around. However, consumers aged 36 to 45 showed the greatest propensity to shop around for a better deal, with 29% taking on that challenge.
The myth is officially busted: opportunities for growth lie well beyond young consumers who have only just reached eligibility to apply for their own short-term insurance policies.
“While the short-term insurance market is perhaps not growing at the rate that many insurers would like, our analysis shows that it’s far from stagnant. Clear segmentation along with careful risk management and profitability assessments can help providers acquire lower-risk, higher-value customers across diverse groups of potential customers,” Fischer said. “While price remains a significant driver among consumers, other variables continue to play a meaningful role in building customer loyalty.”
South Africa’s Automotive Market Accelerates to 11-Year High as Value Brands and Younger Buyers Drive Momentum
- 111 697 new passenger vehicles sold in Q3 – up 23.4% year-on-year, the highest quarterly total since 2014
- Chinese brands captured a record 15%+ market share, growing almost nine times faster than the market average
- Passenger-vehicle exports rebounded 4.1% year-on-year, powered by a 63.7% September surge to a six-year high
South Africa’s automotive market shifted into top gear in the third quarter of 2025, posting its strongest sales performance in more than a decade as greater macro-economic stability, easing interest rates and a firmer rand supported renewed consumer demand. According to TransUnion’s Q3 2025 Mobility Insights Report, total new-passenger-vehicle sales reached 111 697 units, 23.4% higher year-on-year (YoY), while new vehicle inflation dropped to a record low of 1.5% (since tracking began in 2008), creating one of the most competitive pricing environments in recent memory.
“Affordability and choice are redefining South Africa’s automotive landscape,” says Lee Naik, CEO TransUnion Africa. “Consumers are seeking greater value and flexibility and manufacturers that meet this demand through innovation and pricing discipline are winning the race for growth.”
Affordability Drives Record Growth and Market Realignment
Although established OEMs returned to positive growth in Q2 and Q3 2025, the market’s transformation is being led by Chinese manufacturers expanding nearly nine times faster than the overall market, with YoY growth of 89% in Q2 and 88% in Q3.
Their combined share has quadrupled since 2021 to more than 15%, powered by competitively priced, feature-rich SUVs and sedans that appeal to cost-conscious yet tech-savvy buyers. Top-performing value brands YoY included JAC (67% volume increase), GWM (54%), Mahindra (42%) and Chery (35%), while BMW (27%) proved that premium marques can still thrive by combining desirability with strong product pipelines.
“This isn’t a short-term surge, it’s a structural reset,” adds Naik. “The success of value-driven models shows how affordability, technology and trust are now the true levers of brand growth in South Africa.”
Younger and High-Income Buyers Sustain Demand
Despite surging sales, TransUnion’s recent Consumer Pulse Survey shows a modest easing in purchase intent, with the share of respondents likely to buy a vehicle in the next three months declining from 19% in Q2 to 17% in Q3. The report suggests that current sales momentum is being driven primarily by pent-up demand, dealer incentives and fleet renewals, rather than broad-based consumer confidence.
Purchase behaviour also remains sharply segmented across both age and income groups. Younger consumers continue to lead intent, with 21% of Gen Z and 19% of Millennials planning to buy a vehicle in the next three months, compared to 13% of Gen X and 8% of Baby Boomers. From an income perspective, high-income households earning R200 000 or more per month show the strongest intent at 34%, while middle- and lower-income consumers remain significantly more cautious in their purchasing outlook.
Electrification: A Tale of Price and Generation
Internal-combustion vehicles (ICE) remain the single largest category in consumer purchase intent, accounting for 42% of consumer preference, while interest in hybrid (39%) and plug-in hybrid (24%) models is steadily increasing. The shift toward electrification is most pronounced among Gen Z consumers, with 55% favouring hybrids and 32% considering battery-electric vehicles (BEVs).
This generational shift toward greener technology is evident among high-income buyers, with 75% considering plug-in hybrids, driven primarily by their perceived affordability. In contrast, preference for ICE vehicles remains largely affordability-based among lower-income segments. Higher budgets within affluent households enable greater consideration of hybrid electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV), and battery electric vehicles (BEV), reinforcing an emerging “electrification divide.” This dynamic presents a significant opportunity for OEMs and financiers to tailor product offerings and financing strategies to meet the distinct needs of different age and income segments.
Connected Cars: Data Becomes the New Engine
Q3’s Mobility Insights Report special feature, The Connected Road, explores how connected-car technology is transforming mobility. Connectivity is now standard in most post-2015 vehicles, enabling real-time navigation, predictive maintenance, remote access, and advanced safety systems. Yet global data warns of “connectivity fatigue”: Over three quarters (76%) of drivers internationally don’t subscribe to connected services, mainly due to cost.
Naik says: “South Africa has a chance to leapfrog global missteps by focusing on value-adding applications, safer driving, cheaper insurance and smarter maintenance rather than gimmicks.”
Exports Rebound and Dealer Confidence Climbs
Passenger-vehicle unit exports rose 4.1% YoY after a steep Q2 contraction, driven by a 63.7% September surge that lifted shipments to a six-year high. Meanwhile, the RMB/BER Motor Traders Confidence Index advanced to 54, marking its second net-positive reading of 2025 and notably placing it above the neutral 50-point mark, which signals growing dealer optimism amid sustained sales momentum and improving export conditions.
Balancing Value and Transformation
The convergence of affordability, segmentation, electrification, and connectivity signals a pivotal shift in the automotive industry. “The future belongs to brands and financiers that master both the value-driven present and the connected, electrified future,” concludes Naik. “Data-led insight will be the bridge that connects today’s strategies with tomorrow’s innovation
Read the full TransUnion South Africa Q3 2025 Mobility Insights Report here.
South African Automotive Market: Recovery Gains Traction but Headwinds Persist
- New passenger sales rose 22.5% year-on-year, the strongest volumes since 2014
- Chinese automakers expanded their market share to nearly 15%, up from just 3.1% in 2022
- Passenger-vehicle exports contracted sharply, down 24.6% amid weaker global demand and new US tariffs
TransUnion’s latest Mobility Insights Report shows South Africa’s automotive market building momentum in 2025, supported by a favourable interest rate environment, record-low new-vehicle inflation, and liquidity from the two-pot pension reform. While recovery is underway, the outlook remains fragile, with affordability constraints and export headwinds threatening longer-term growth.
Supportive Shifts, But Growth Remains Fragile
The South African Reserve Bank has cut interest rates five times since September 2024 and inflation has returned to the lower end of the 3-6% band1, providing households with some relief. Consumer confidence has improved among middle- and higher-income groups, although low-income consumers continue to face pressure from food and electricity costs2.
“These macro shifts provide short-term support to the vehicle market, but momentum is likely to taper in 2026 without further reforms,” said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa.
Affordability And Value Drive a Surge
Passenger car sales broke through the 35,000-unit ceiling for the first time in years, with July and August 2025 marking the strongest volumes since 2014. According to Naamsa, new passenger car sales grew 22.5% year-over-year (YoY) in Q2, fuelled by lower borrowing costs, aggressive OEM incentives and the entry of new value-focused brands.
Chinese automakers continued their rapid growth, expanding market share from 3.1% in 2022 to nearly 15% in Q2 2025. Their affordable, tech-rich SUVs and expanding dealer networks are reshaping competition, forcing legacy OEMs to rethink pricing, features, and model cycles. Toyota retained overall leadership, with Suzuki securing second place for the second consecutive quarter.
“Improved affordability, aggressive incentives and growing demand for value brands, alongside modest support from two-pot withdrawals, helped sustain momentum through 2025. However, as interest rates remain elevated and credit conditions tighten, and the two-pot effect normalises, growth is expected to moderate in 2026, with export risks and rand volatility adding uncertainty,” said Naik.
Diverging Trends: New vs. Used Vehicle Demand
NaTIS data shows new registrations rising 20% YoY in Q2 2025, led by Northern Cape, Free State and Northwest. In contrast, used registrations declined by 1.4%, reflecting pressure in that segment.
Across all vehicle sales, the Used-to-New Vehicle Registration Ratio rose to 3.2 in Q2, up from 2.5 in Q1, indicating a quarter-on-quarter increase in the relative share of used vehicle registrations. However, this remains below the 3.8 ratio seen through much of 2024, suggesting that new vehicles have regained some ground YoY. While used vehicles continue to dominate overall registrations, the market has shifted slightly back toward new vehicles compared to last year. This nuanced divergence presents opportunities for OEMs and dealer networks, while independent used dealers continue to face headwinds.
Exports Slump Amid Global Shocks
While domestic momentum improves, passenger vehicle exports fell 24.6% in Q2 2025 due to softer global demand and new US tariffs of up to 30%. Premium models, heavily reliant on the US and European markets, are under pressure, raising concerns for production, jobs, and investment.
Two-pot Withdrawals: Targeted Liquidity with Visible Impact
The September 2024 two-pot retirement reform injected liquidity into households, with evidence from the Bureau of Market Research suggesting a direct impact on mobility demand3, particularly in the used car market. While withdrawals were generally insufficient to fund deposits for new vehicles, they provided meaningful support to affordability-driven used vehicle purchases.
The reform is offering short-term relief rather than long-term wealth extraction, with withdrawals largely used for deposits, consumption, or debt repayment. Generational differences are evident: Millennials (aged 29 to 44) and younger Gen X (aged 18 to 28) are the most active claimants, while Baby Boomers withdraw minimally. Repeat withdrawals are becoming more common, suggesting both ongoing financial strain and the emergence of a recurring source of liquidity for entry-level and mid-market segments4.
“Two-pot withdrawals were not the only factor lifting sales,” noted Naik. “But the timing, scale and claimant profile suggest they acted as a meaningful catalyst for incremental used-car purchases.”
What Industry Players Should Do Next
Looking ahead, TransUnion advises that OEMs, dealers and lenders recalibrate strategies to balance domestic opportunities with external risks. Industry participants should align campaigns with liquidity cycles, planning promotions and stock availability around expected two-pot withdrawal windows.
Affordability must remain the priority, with a sharpened focus on value brands, certified pre-owned vehicles, and models that deliver a strong total cost of ownership. Financing solutions should also evolve, offering deposit support, trade-in boosters, and more flexible terms, while carefully monitoring repayment behaviour to manage post-purchase risk.
At the same time, leveraging data-driven insights, integrating credit and registration analytics to identify liquidity-sensitive buyers, preapprove customers, and track repayment performance, will be critical for sustaining growth in an uncertain environment.
“South Africa’s auto market is regaining momentum, but it’s a fragile recovery,” said Naik. “Those who time offers to policy-driven liquidity, sharpen affordability, and manage risk proactively will be best placed to capture growth.”
Read the full TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report here.
ENDS
Notes to Editors: The Q2 2025 release is the second edition of the TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report, formerly known as the Vehicle Pricing Index. The rebranded report now captures broader consumer, financing, and insurance insights across the mobility ecosystem.
Sources:
1 South African Reserve Bank (SARB)
2 TransUnion-South-Africa-CCI-Report-H2-2025-V9.pdf
3 Two-pot-claims-and-credit-data-FINAL.pdf
4 FAnews: Majority of two-pot withdrawals in the new tax year are repeat withdrawals; Moneyweb: Two-pot withdrawal: repeat claims surge; and Moneyweb, Two-pot payouts surge to R57B, with 4m withdrawals to date.
TransUnion Study Reveals Key Insights Into South Africa’s FinTech Borrowers as Market Poised for Growth
- TransUnion analysis reveals actionable insights for FinTech lenders seeking to navigate market complexities to achieve growth targets
- FinTech lending is not the main gateway to financial inclusion, with most consumers choosing a clothing account as their first credit product
- FinTech borrowers are loyal when it comes to subsequent products, but FinTech lenders are lower in consumers’ payment hierarchy than other lender types
TransUnion’s latest research into South Africa’s FinTech lending market reveals critical insights into borrower behaviour, loyalty and risk based on an analysis of 4.3 million South Africa consumers. The study highlights patterns that present both opportunities and challenges when navigating a rapidly digitising credit ecosystem.
South Africa’s FinTech sector is undergoing rapid transformation, signalling a major shift in how consumers will engage with credit in the next five years, and beyond. As digital adoption accelerates, lenders will need to adapt their approach to South African consumers if they’re to attract, retain and grow relationships with digitally engaged borrowers.
Emerging FinTechs are offering diverse solutions such as buy now, pay later (BNPL) loans with interest free payments, flexible financing for small and medium enterprises, point-of-sale credit and insurance coverage. Financial services are now more accessible than ever before. However, it’s essential that the lenders behind these solutions understand who is using them, how they engage with credit, and whether borrowers’ loyalty can help drive sustainable growth.
“As competition intensifies and regulatory frameworks evolve, lenders must go beyond product innovation and develop a deeper understanding of consumer behaviour,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Our study offers a data-driven lens into the FinTech borrower profile, helping lenders build loyalty, manage risk, and drive inclusion.”
TransUnion analysed South Africans who held at least one open FinTech credit obligation in Q4 2024, including long-term personal loans, short-term personal loans and credit cards, to learn more about the consumers driving growth in the sector. The study examined risk profiles, delinquency trends, product breadth, and loyalty patterns among FinTech borrowers. Further, the study compared those characteristics to similar-risk consumers using traditional lender products only (non-FinTech borrowers[1]), providing a deeper understanding of growth opportunities for South Africa’s credit market.
Five Themes Shaping FinTech Lending Strategy
1. FinTechs are not yet the main gateway to financial inclusion.
Despite South Africa’s high mobile penetration[2], 69% of New-to-Credit consumers – those with no prior reported credit history – enter the market via retail accounts, with clothing accounts being the most common first product. FinTechs have an opportunity to reposition themselves as enablers of financial inclusion by partnering with retailers and mobile ecosystems to reach underserved segments.
2. FinTech borrowers are concentrated in below prime risk tiers[3].
While many FinTech borrowers have experience managing credit, 95% of FinTech borrowers with 0–1 month loans are in below prime risk tiers, compared to 29% for bank borrowers and 69% for non-bank lender borrowers. For 2–12 month loans, 94% of FinTech borrowers are below prime, in contrast to 58% for banks and 50% for non-banks. This highlights greater risk exposure among the FinTech borrower base and suggests that FinTech lenders could benefit from leveraging trended and alternative data to better predict repayment risk and reduce delinquency rates, particularly among below-prime borrowers.
3. FinTech borrowers are not all underserved.
Among 0–1 month term borrowers, 44% of FinTech consumers already hold two or three credit products and 27% hold four or more, debunking the assumption that FinTech borrowers have limited access to credit. Additionally, more than 56% of FinTech personal loan borrowers hold credit products with non-FinTech lenders. These multi-lender relationships underscore the need for lenders to view borrowing patterns holistically and better understand the reasons why borrowers may be seeking credit from different lender types, in order to develop strategies for capturing more of their customers’ wallets.
4. FinTech borrowers underperform on repayments.
While there are no material differences by lender type for longer-term loans, there are significant differences for 0-1 month loans. This is an important consideration as these shorter-term loans are more likely to be used by borrowers earlier in their credit journeys when they are potentially more financially vulnerable. After controlling for borrower risk score, delinquency rates (consumers 2+ months in arrears on a loan) were highest among FinTech borrowers: The consumer-level delinquencies were 74% for 0–1 month loans from FinTechs compared to lower rates for bank loans (53%) and non-bank lender loans (53%), underscoring the need for enhanced risk management strategies tailored to the FinTech segment.
5. FinTech borrowers are loyal to FinTech lenders
TransUnion’s research provides compelling evidence of borrower loyalty within the FinTech lending ecosystem. Among consumers who originated a 0–1 month personal loan, 65% opened another 0–1 month loan within 12 months, and 93% of those chose a FinTech lender. More than one fifth (21%) of these borrowers progressed to a 2–12 month loan, with 80% remaining with FinTech providers.
Among consumers who started with a 2–12 month personal loan, 95% opened another 2–12 month loan, with 60% choosing a FinTech lender. In addition, 85% of these borrowers also opened a 0–1 month loan, and 38% did so with FinTech lenders. These patterns demonstrate a strong preference among borrowers to remain within the FinTech category, even as they take loans over longer time periods. This loyalty presents a strategic opportunity for FinTech lenders to deepen relationships through personalised engagement, targeted product offerings, and proactive risk management.
However, loyalty in product originations does not necessarily translate into repayment prioritisation. When consumers hold loans with both FinTech and non-FinTech lenders, they tend to prioritise repayments to traditional institutions. Among consumers with 2–12 term personal loans from both FinTech and non-FinTech non-bank lenders, delinquency measured as 1+ month in arrears was 33% for FinTechs, compared to 26% for non-FinTech non-bank lenders. Similarly, for those with loans from both FinTechs and banks, delinquency was 30% for FinTechs versus 28% for banks.
The takeaway for lenders is that while FinTech borrowers are loyal in terms of repeat borrowing, they may deprioritise FinTech repayments when under financial pressure. This highlights the need for FinTech lenders to strengthen their engagement strategies, build trust, and implement early intervention tools to improve repayment outcomes and long-term value.
“If lenders are to benefit from the anticipated growth in the FinTech lending market, it’s essential that they offer financial literacy and awareness education to help consumers understand how responsible credit use can support their financial goals. Once consumers have opened FinTech-issued products, lenders can activate lifestyle triggers to anticipate consumer progression so that they can deliver timely, relevant engagement to drive loyalty and long-term value. This can be further supported by deploying predelinquency models to identify early signs of consumer stress, and to initiate recovery efforts before risk escalates,” said Hatea.
[1] FinTech consumers were those with an open FinTech long-term personal loan, short-term personal loan, or credit card. Non-FinTech consumers were a control group with no FinTech obligations of any type in their history, who held a long-term personal loan, short term personal loan or credit card from a non-FinTech lender
[2] 118,600,000 connections across 60,690,000 people https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2024-south-africa
[3] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).
Suspected Digital Fraud Most Frequent at Account Login in South Africa, TransUnion Reports
- Money or gift card scams were the most prevalent fraud type from February to May 2025, reported by one-third (33%) of South Africans who said they were targeted with fraud
- Transactions with video gaming companies, where the consumer was in South Africa, were most suspected of digital fraud in the first half of 2025 among industries analysed
- Insurance sector experienced the largest increase in the volume of suspected digital fraud among industries analysed, over the study period
According to the newly released TransUnion® (NYSE: TRU) H2 2025 Update to the Top Fraud Trends Report, the rate of suspected digital fraud[1] was the highest in the consumer lifecycle at account login for South Africa with 2.6% of those types of transaction attempts when the consumer was in the country being suspected of digital fraud in the first half (H1) of 2025. This aligns with a global trend of fraud shifting to account takeover attempts which typically occur at login. Globally, 4.3% of account login transactions in H1 2025 were suspected of digital fraud.
The report, which draws on proprietary data from TransUnion’s global intelligence network from billions of transactions from over 40,000 websites and apps and a consumer survey across 18 countries, reveals that fraud is growing.
“South Africa stands at a critical juncture in its digital evolution where opportunity and vulnerability intersect. As the nation embraces rapid digital transformation, the surge in online activity has inadvertently opened new doors for fraudsters, whose tactics are growing more sophisticated by the day. This convergence of accelerated digital adoption, economic strain and criminal innovation has created a complex risk landscape,” said Amritha Reddy, senior director of fraud product management TransUnion Africa.
According to analysis of TransUnion’s customers in its global intelligence network, digital account takeover volume worldwide grew 21% year-over-year (YoY) from H1 2024 to H1 2025, signalling a rapid escalation. The volume of digital account takeovers surged 141% from H1 2021 to H1 2025, underscoring persistent rise of this fraud type over time and reflecting the increasing sophistication of fraudsters who exploit stolen credentials and bypass authentication systems.
"As account takeover fraud surges, businesses can no longer afford solely reactive defences,” said Reddy. “The growing sophistication of fraudsters demands a proactive investment in layered security and identity intelligence. In today’s threat landscape, protecting customer accounts is not just a priority, it’s a business imperative."
Highest Rate of Suspected Digital Fraud in Video Gaming
Among industries analysed globally, the video gaming sector recorded the highest percentage of suspected digital fraud attempts in the first half of 2025, reaching 13.5%. This represents a significant 28% rate increase compared to the same period in 2024, underscoring the growing vulnerability of this sector to fraudulent activity.
For transactions where the consumer was in South Africa, the rate of suspected digital fraud attempts from February to May 2025 was the highest in video gaming at 7.7%. The greatest increase in the volume of digital transactions suspected to be fraudulent over that time was in the insurance industry, with a 154% uptick.
Chart 2: Suspected Digital Fraud Attempts in South Africa, by Sector
| Industry |
Suspected digital fraud attempt rate H1 2025 |
Change in volume of suspected digital fraud attempts from H1 2024 to H1 2025 |
| Video gaming |
7.7% |
-1% |
| Insurance |
6.7% |
+154% |
| Communities (web properties like online forums and dating sites) |
3.2% |
-45% |
| Financial services |
3.0% |
-49% |
| Logistics |
2.1% |
-99% |
| Retail |
1.1% |
-57% |
| Telecommunications |
0.7% |
-96% |
Source: TransUnion global intelligence network
“As the risk from consumer scams threatens identity integrity, organisations should rely on a mixture of data, risk signals, technology and tools to prevent fraud,” said Reddy. “The Report highlights that business leaders rank[2] identity verification, device reputation and behavioural biometrics as the leading three fraud prevention technologies.
“Businesses and financial institutions should also invest in sustained education and awareness campaigns to mitigate against schemes like account takeovers. Preventing fraud must by necessity be a multi-pronged strategy, if businesses and consumers are to stay ahead of fraudsters whose strategies continue to evolve too,” she said. “By harnessing advanced technologies, fostering cross-sector collaboration, and prioritising consumer trust, South Africa can chart a path toward a secure and inclusive digital future.”
Consumer-Reported Exposure to Fraud Grows Amid Gaps in Awareness and Prevention
Globally, consumers continue to face a wide range of scams, with tactics often tailored to regional behaviours and vulnerabilities. TransUnion’s survey found that 48% of consumers surveyed globally reported being targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud from February to May 2025, with 59% of South Africans saying the same thing. Globally, 52% were unaware that they were targeted, as were 42% of South Africans, indicating potential fraud under-recognition and a gap in fraud awareness.
Consumers in five of the six African countries surveyed reported money or gift card scams as the most experienced fraud type. In South Africa money or gift card scams was the most common fraud type – reported by 33% of those who said they were targeted with email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud from February to May 2025. Among those South Africans who said they were targeted, the next most frequently reported scams were phishing (31%), smishing (30%), and vishing (29%), with these three designed to deceive individuals into giving up their valuable personal or financial information.
South Africa Saw the Greatest Percentage of Respondents in Africa Indicating They Fell Victim to Fraud from February to May 2025
| Country | Targeted and fell victim | Targeted but didn’t fall victim | Not targeted | Most reported fraud scheme |
| South Africa | 13% | 46% | 42% | Money/gift card |
| Kenya | 10% | 71% | 19% | Vishing |
| Zambia | 9% | 76% | 15% | Money/gift card |
| Rwanda | 9% | 49% | 42% | Money/gift card |
| Namibia | 8% | 57% | 35% | Money/gift card |
| Botswana | 6% | 68% | 26% | Money/gift card |
Source: TransUnion consumer survey
“As scammers continue to evolve their tactics to enrich themselves, it’s more important than ever for consumers to regularly review their credit reports to ensure all listed information is accurate,” said Reddy.”
TransUnion came to its conclusions about digital fraud and data breaches based on intelligence from its array of TransUnion fraud prevention solutions. To learn more about how TransUnion fraud prevention solutions can help businesses avoid fraud and prevent fraud losses, click here.
Specific country and regional data in the report includes South Africa, Botswana, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, Nicaragua, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Rwanda, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Zambia. Download the TransUnion H2 2025 Update to the Top Fraud Trends Report for more information and insights about the global fraud trends.
[1] Suspected digital fraud attempts reflect those which TransUnion customers determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon customer investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation.
[2] As found by TransUnion’s online business survey conducted from 29 May to 6 June 2025 in partnership with third-party research provider, Dynata. Findings were included in TransUnion’s H2 2025 Update to the Top Fraud Trends Report
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