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South Africa’s Auto Market Shows Signs of Recovery as Used Vehicle Demand Rises
- Used vehicle financing outpaces new car financing, with a ratio of 1.56 to 1 as affordability remains a key driver
- New vehicle finance agreements grow by 12.7% YoY, despite economic uncertainty
- South Africa reaches a milestone of 1,000+ battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales in 2024, with PHEV and HEV sales growing over 60% YoY
The latest TransUnion South Africa Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) for Q4 2024 reveals a cautiously optimistic outlook for the country’s automotive sector, with improving economic conditions encouraging consumer confidence while affordability challenges continue to shape purchasing decisions.
Key insights from the report indicate a continued shift towards used vehicles, with financing for pre-owned vehicles outpacing new car financing at a ratio of 1.56 to 1, up from 1.23 in Q4 2023. Meanwhile, new vehicle prices increased by 1.7% due to supply chain constraints and production costs, while used vehicle prices declined by 2.8%, making them a more attractive option for cost-conscious buyers.
Despite these challenges, new vehicle finance agreements grew by 12.7% year-over-year (YoY), with Gen X and Millennials accounting for 67% of new agreements*.
“South Africa’s automotive sector is navigating a complex landscape, balancing economic improvements with persistent affordability challenges,” says Marcia Mayaba, Sales Vice President, Auto Information Services at TransUnion South Africa. “The demand for used vehicles continues to grow, while we’re also seeing an increasing shift towards alternative financing and ownership models, such as leasing and car subscriptions, particularly among younger consumers.”
Used Vehicles Dominate, While New Car Market Seeks Stability
The Q4 2024 VPI report highlights a strong preference for used vehicles, with financing activity significantly outpacing new vehicle sales. This shift is largely driven by affordability concerns, as inflationary pressures and high vehicle prices continue to impact consumer purchasing decisions.
The used-to-new financing ratio increased to 1.56 in Q4 2024, reflecting a clear trend toward more budget-friendly alternatives. At the same time, new vehicle registrations grew by 14.4% YoY, supported by improved economic conditions and rising consumer confidence.
The Future of South Africa’s Auto Market: EV Growth and Digital Financing
Looking ahead, the report highlights the rising potential of electric vehicles (EVs) in South Africa, signalling a significant shift in consumer interest and market dynamics. The country reached a milestone of over 1,000 battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales in 2024, a small but significant step in a market still dominated by petrol and diesel vehicles. While EVs represent a fraction of total sales, the 60% year-over-year growth in hybrid (HEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales signals a gradual shift in consumer interest toward more sustainable options.
The introduction of more affordable EV models priced under R1 million, such as the BYD Dolphin and Seal, is expected to accelerate adoption in 2025, making EV ownership more accessible to a broader segment of the market. However, affordability remains a key barrier, with high upfront costs and concerns around charging infrastructure limiting mainstream adoption.
“EV adoption in South Africa is gaining momentum, but for this growth to be sustained, industry players must collaborate to make ownership more accessible," says Mayaba. "With the right financial products, infrastructure expansion, and increased consumer awareness, EVs have the potential to reshape South Africa’s automotive landscape in the years to come.”
Financing Trends and Alternative Ownership Models Gain Momentum
The report also reveals an evolving vehicle financing landscape, with leasing, subscriptions, and rent-to-buy agreements gaining traction as consumers seek more flexible and cost-effective solutions.
For the first time, the Q4 2024 VPI report explores the impact of e-Hailing, leasing, and car subscriptions on the South African auto market. While outright vehicle ownership remains dominant, alternative mobility solutions are becoming increasingly relevant. The report indicates that leasing and subscription-based models are particularly appealing to Millennials and Gen Z consumers, who prioritise affordability and flexibility over long-term ownership commitments.
Additionally, e-Hailing continues to serve as a supplementary transport solution rather than a direct competitor to vehicle ownership. According to recent data from inDrive, an international ride-hailing service, 21.1% of South Africans make us of e-hailing services, reflecting the growing popularity of these transportation alternatives. However, the majority of users still aspire to own a vehicle in the long term. To address affordability constraints and credit access challenges, leasing and rent-to-buy options are emerging as viable alternatives, offering consumers flexible solutions that align with their financial situations.
While lower-value finance agreements (under R250,000) declined, a growing share of financed vehicles now falls within the R250,000 to R750,000 range. This shift suggests that while affordability remains a concern, consumers are prioritising flexible financing solutions and adjusting their purchasing behaviour to align with available credit and economic conditions
“The traditional model of vehicle ownership is evolving,” adds Mayaba. “While outright ownership remains a key aspiration, younger generations are increasingly exploring flexible mobility solutions that align with their financial realities and lifestyle preferences.”
As South Africa’s automotive sector continues to evolve, the interplay between affordability, alternative financing models, and emerging technologies like EVs will shape its future. While used vehicles remain the preferred choice for many consumers, the growth in digital financing and the introduction of more accessible EV models signal an industry on the brink of transformation. Collaboration among industry players, financial institutions, and policymakers will be key to ensuring sustainable growth and greater accessibility for all consumers. With the right innovations and strategies, the sector is well-positioned to adapt to changing market dynamics and drive long-term success.
Read the latest TransUnion VPI Q4 2024 report here.
ENDS
Notes to Editors:
* Gen X (born 1965-1980), Millennials (born 1981-1996) and Gen Z (born 1997-2012)
The TransUnion South Africa Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) tracks vehicle pricing trends across new and used markets, integrating data from SACRRA and industry-leading sources.
For more information, visit: www.transunion.co.za
South Africa’s Lenders Adopted Prudent Risk Strategies to Drive Growth in Q4 2024
- Card issuers rewarded performing existing cardholders with credit limit increases, but offered lower credit limits to new cardholders
- Consumers increasingly turned to non-bank lenders for personal loans
- Vehicle loan originations increased for the second consecutive quarter, indicating optimism for the sector
According to TransUnion’s (NYSE:TRU) Q4 2024 South Africa Industry Insights Report, the country’s credit card issuers have adapted their acquisition strategies to enable prudent growth, while effective risk management has led to a decline in account-level delinquencies. During Q4 2024, credit card issuers reduced the average credit card limit on new accounts by 3.9% year-over-year (YoY), while at the same time they increased credit limits on existing credit cards[1] by 5.0%.
The limit increase observations were prominent among prime plus consumers (+4.1% average credit limit increase) and super prime[2] consumers (+1.8%). As a result of higher line access and consumers continuing to leverage credit cards to meet financial and transactional needs, total outstanding balances rose by 7.8% YoY. These insights are echoed in TransUnion South Africa’s Q4 2024 Consumer Pulse Report, where 13% of consumers responded that they had increased their usage of available credit.
An improving performance picture, as observed since Q2 2022, continued as delinquencies (measured as accounts 90 days or more past due) decreased by 34 basis points (bps) YoY during Q4 2024. This trend shows that South African consumers have been able to maintain their credit card payment obligations, while leveraging their cards to navigate the continued high cost of living that has put pressure on disposable income.
“Lenders who are sustaining growth and profitability are drawing on enhanced risk attributes to stimulate a greater share of spend and wallet by identifying consumers who are likely to use credit lines judiciously,” said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa. “At a time when new account acquisition is costly, enabling lower-risk consumers to re-engage with their inactive cards, or to extend the use of existing cards, will encourage prudent growth and enable customer loyalty.”
Personal loan lenders target younger borrowers
While personal loan originations from traditional banks declined by 6.2% YoY in Q4 2024, personal loan originations from non-bank lenders increased by 13.9% YoY. Non-bank personal loan originations among Gen Z[3] consumers grew by 48.5% YoY, with this cohort accounting for 15.5% of all non-bank originations.
Non-bank personal loan originations increased YoY across all risk tiers (except for the super prime risk tier, where originations declined by a marginal 1.0% YoY), with the greatest increase seen among prime borrowers (16.1%). However, bank personal loans declined across all risk tiers YoY, except for subprime, where they increased by 6.0% YoY.
Banks are expanding their personal loan offerings to a greater proportion of subprime borrowers. Among bank personal loans, the share of subprime borrowers increased from 53% in Q4 2023 to 58% in Q4 2024, with the share of near prime borrowers remaining consistent across the year. There were minimal YoY fluctuations across the remaining risk tiers. In contrast, the distribution across risk tiers for non-bank personal loans remained consistent over the last two quarters of 2024.
The personal loans market continues to be dominated by younger borrowers, although the total share of originations by borrowers aged 45 and younger did decline marginally in 2024. Seventy-five percent of bank personal loans were granted to Gen X and Millennial customers during Q4 2024, down from 78% one year prior, while 70% of non-bank personal loans were granted to the same age group in Q4 2024, compared to 72% one year prior. At the same time, both lender types are growing their portfolio among the youngest Gen Z borrower group, with 19% of bank personal loans going to Gen Z borrowers in Q4 2024, up from 16% one year prior, and 16% of non-bank personal loans going to these consumers in Q4 2024, up from 12% one year prior.
With respect to credit performance, bank personal loan account-level delinquencies at 90+ days past due dropped by eight bps YoY to 26.6%, while non-bank personal loan delinquencies increased by 452 bps to 40.6%.
“Non-bank personal lenders have a more tolerant risk appetite than banks, and they are responding positively to market demand across age groups and risk tiers,” says Naik. “Lenders that maintain rigorous risk assessment practices that enable greater and earlier prediction of risk, offer education on how to use and manage credit, and empower younger consumers to build their credit profiles, will ensure the continued sustainability of the personal loan market.”
Vehicle loan market continued its recovery path
The vehicle loans market showed encouraging signs of continued growth, as origination volumes increased by 9.6% YoY, and average new loan amounts grew by 1.4%. The greatest growth in originations was observed among Gen Z consumers, where originations grew by 27.9%, although their share of total new finance agreements remains relatively low compared to older age groups. This is the second consecutive quarter in which total vehicle loan originations grew YoY, with the last increase in origination volumes before these two increases having been in Q3 2022. Given the 0.25 bps decrease in interest rates as of November 2024 and a positive outlook for consumer confidence, the vehicle loan market is expected to continue this recovery trend.
These positive trends were also evident in the Q4 2024 TransUnion South Africa Vehicle Pricing Index, that revealed a growing share of financed vehicles within the R250,000 to R750,000 price range. This shift suggests that, while affordability may still be a concern, consumers are prioritising flexible financing solutions and adjusting their purchasing behaviour to align with available credit and economic conditions.
“While the two recent interest rate decreases were just 25 basis points each, the significant increase in new vehicle loan originations indicates that South Africans are becoming more optimistic about their financial futures,” says Naik. “While vehicle ownership is aspirational for many individuals, it’s also the key to unlocking growth for entrepreneurs, and the owners of micro and small enterprises, all of whom are the engines of economic growth in South Africa.
“As part of our drive to expand financial inclusion, TransUnion has included a wide range of alternative data into our scoring solutions, so that more South Africans are more visible in our risk scoring models, in turn creating the platform for them to access finance for the first time.”
Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)
|
Product |
YoY origination growth |
Serious account-level delinquency rate* |
YoY basis points (bps) change in delinquency rate |
| Credit card |
5.6% |
12.0% |
-33 bps |
| Bank personal loan |
-6.2% |
26.6% |
-8 bps |
| Non-bank personal loan |
13.9% |
40.6% |
452 bps |
| Clothing accounts |
-4.0% |
26.4% |
-143 bps |
| Retail instalment |
14.9% |
27.5% |
-204 bps |
| Retail revolving |
11.9% |
14.5% |
-500 bps |
| Home loans |
-13.2% |
7.1% |
26 bps |
| Vehicle finance |
9.6%% |
4.8% |
13 bps |
*Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears
- [1] Credit card accounts that are currently open and active in the portfolio.
- [2] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).
- [3] TransUnion age distribution: Gen Z (Born 1995 – 2010); Millennials (Born 1980-1994); Gen X (Born 1965-1979); Baby Boomers (Born 1946-1964
South African Consumer Credit Market Adapts to Economic Pressures in Q1 2025
- 36% of consumers planning to take out a new car loan or lease within the next year prefer hybrid vehicles, reflecting a growing inclination towards fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly transportation options
- 79% of consumers expect their income will grow in the coming months
- 82% of respondents are extremely or very concerned about inflation, with rising costs continuing to be a major stressor for consumers as they navigate household budgeting and financial planning
South African consumers continue to adapt to a fluctuating economic environment, with TransUnion’s Q1 2025 Consumer Pulse study[1] revealing key trends in household financial management, credit activity and vehicle financing. Amid ongoing financial pressures, a significant increase in intended hybrid vehicle financing highlights evolving consumer preferences.
“Despite the challenges posed by inflation and economic uncertainty, South Africans continue to show resilience in managing their finances,” said Ayesha Hatea, Director of Research and Consulting at TransUnion. “We are seeing notable shifts toward more purposeful financial planning, credit management and strategic spending. While economic pressures remain, consumers are finding ways to balance credit usage, savings, and debt repayments more effectively.”
Economic Concerns and Credit Usage Trends
The report highlights consumers’ ongoing financial concerns, with 42% of respondents stating that their household income is not keeping up with inflation, despite inflation being at the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s target range[2]. These ongoing concerns could be because 40% of consumers said their income stayed the same in the past three months, while 22% reported it decreased.
“With more than six in ten South Africans reporting no increase in their income, it’s clear to see why consumers are trying to find new ways to manage their financial commitments, including taking on more credit, and different types of credit, for key purchases,” said Hatea.
The survey data reveals that 37% of respondents plan to apply for new or refinance existing credit within the next year, with 52% of all those surveyed saying they’ve used Buy Now, Pay Later services in the past 12 months.
Amid ongoing concerns about a recession, consumers indicated that they are actively taking steps to prepare. Among those who said they think South Africa is currently in a recession or will be in one by the end of Q1, the most respondents (59%) said they’re preparing for a possible recession by reducing spending followed by 58% building up their savings and 35% prioritising paying down debt.
Debt Repayments and Savings Trends
The data also reveals shifting trends in debt repayments and savings. A worrying trend is that 38% of respondents in Q1 2025 said they’ll be unable to pay at least one of their current bills and loans in full, up from 35% in Q4 2024.
Among those who said they’ll be unable to pay, 34% reported they plan on paying partial amounts they can afford but not the whole balance, while 25% said they’ll dip into their savings to help pay their current bills and loans. A further 20% of consumers aim to borrow money from friends or family members to meet their payment commitments. Additionally, 35% of those surveyed are looking to take on temporary or gig work.
“Managing debt effectively while maintaining savings is a key challenge for many South Africans,” said Hatea. “Consumers who are struggling to meet their payment commitments should engage with their lenders to potentially renegotiate current payment terms. Lenders do not want consumers to default on their debts, and they are often willing to discuss available options with the intention of creating prudent, sustainable financial solutions.”
Hybrid Vehicle Financing Expected to Increase
Of particular interest in the Q1 2025 study is the finding that 36% of consumers planning a new vehicle loan or lease within the next year would consider hybrid vehicles, while 25% would consider an electric vehicle. In comparison, 32% preferred traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, making hybrid cars the top consideration for new vehicle loans or leases among those surveyed.
The latest TransUnion Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) reflects this trend, with the anticipated introduction of more affordable EVs priced under R1 million expected to accelerate their adoption in 2025, thanks to broadening consumer options in the hybrid and EV market.
“This trend highlights how consumers are adapting to broader economic and environmental changes,” said Hatea. “Hybrid vehicles are becoming more accessible, and their appeal extends beyond cost savings to include long-term benefits such as reduced environmental impact and lower running costs. As this market continues to evolve, we anticipate sustained growth in consumer interest and adoption.”
Fraud Concerns
The study highlights that nearly one in three respondents (31%) check their credit reports monthly, with 54% of those who said they monitor their credit doing so to try and improve their credit score. This indicates an awareness of the importance of credit health management.
A smaller 34% of credit monitoring consumers said they check their credit reports to protect against fraudulent activity. More than half (51%) of all those surveyed reported being targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last three months but not falling victim, emphasising the importance of heightened security awareness.
Among the most common fraud schemes reported by those who said they were targeted were money/ gift card scam (33%), smishing (33%), phishing (32%) and third-party seller scams on legitimate online retail websites (31%), emphasising the urgency for consumers to remain vigilant.
“With digital transactions and online banking becoming standard, financial institutions are urged to implement stronger fraud prevention measures, while consumers are encouraged to monitor their credit activity and adopt safer financial practices,” said Hatea.
Adapting to Improve Credit Health
In response to ongoing financial pressures, South African consumers are making strategic adjustments to their household budgets. In the past three months, 52% said they have cut back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel and entertainment, with 43% of them reporting scaling back on large purchases like furniture, appliances and cars. This cautious approach highlights a continued emphasis on financial resilience and long-term stability.
“Our findings show that South Africans are taking a more proactive approach to managing their finances amid economic uncertainty,” said Hatea. “While financial pressures persist, consumers are prioritising essential spending, reducing discretionary expenses, and making thoughtful financial decisions to maintain stability. Providing them with the right tools, education and financial products will be crucial in supporting their financial well-being in the months ahead.”
The Reserve Bank’s decision to reduce the repo rate by 0.25% to 7.5% this January, with no change in March[3], aims to support economic growth and ease borrowing costs for consumers. This adjustment, coupled with improved inflation expectations, is expected to provide further relief to consumers and stimulate economic activity.
As economic conditions evolve, businesses, financial institutions, and policymakers will need to align with these shifting behaviours, offering solutions that promote financial inclusion, long-term stability, and economic growth.
Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.
[1] Q1 2025 South African Consumer Pulse Study was a survey of 950 South African adults from Feb. 10 to 24, 2025.
[2] Inflation Targeting Framework
[3]: repo rate by 0.25% in January to 7.5%: Current Market Rates
South Africa’s Auto Sector Sees Strong Growth Amid Evolving Consumer and Insurance Trends
- New passenger car sales hit multi-year highs, totalling 102,268 units in Q1 2025
- Younger buyers and budget-conscious consumers reshape the financing and brand landscape
- South Africa’s younger car buyers are turning to TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, reshaping the automotive marketing playbook
- New insights on insurance trends highlight growing risk of uninsured vehicles
The latest TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report (formerly the Vehicle Pricing Index) for Q1 2025 highlights a strong rebound in the country’s automotive market. This recovery has been driven by improved consumer sentiment, declining interest rates, access to retirement savings through two-pot withdrawals, and rising real wages. According to naamsa data, new passenger vehicle sales continued their upward trajectory in the first quarter, with monthly volumes averaging over 34,000 units, the highest levels seen since Q3 2015.
Affordability remains a key driver of vehicle purchasing and financing decisions. Creative financing options, longer ownership cycles, and the growing availability of value-oriented models are significantly reshaping consumer behaviour, particularly among younger and first-time buyers. The Q1 2025 TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights report highlights that several emerging brands offering competitively priced vehicles have recorded strong year-over-year growth, contributing to the overall surge in new vehicle sales.
“South African consumers are returning to the vehicle market with a clear focus on value and flexibility,” says Lee Naik, CEO TransUnion Africa. “We’re seeing a continued shift away from traditional premium segments in favour of more accessible alternatives that meet evolving needs and budgets.”
Insurance Trends Reveal Shifting Landscape and Rising Risk
The Q1 2025 report introduces new data on insurance-linked vehicle asset finance (VAF). As of early 2025, only 39% of insured vehicle owners had financed vehicles, down from 44% in 2020. This signals a rise in alternative financing or lapses in insurance post-purchase, especially concerning as TransUnion’s 2024 Insurance Survey found that 25% of vehicle users had driven uninsured in the past six months.
This trend has implications for lenders, who face greater asset risk in the event of write-offs without insurance recovery, and for insurers, whose portfolios may now carry increased exposure. To mitigate these risks, strategies such as bundled insurance, usage-based coverage and low-cost flexible insurance models are growing in relevance.
Used Vehicle Momentum Slows as New Sales Lead Recovery
While used vehicles have dominated financing trends in recent years, Q1 2025 marked a notable shift back toward new vehicle purchases, driven by easing interest rates, improved entry-level model availability, and aggressive manufacturer incentives. Notably, the influx of competitively priced Chinese models has attracted budget-conscious buyers away from the used market, fuelling fresh growth in new vehicle registrations.
“Consumers are holding onto their cars for an average of six to eight years, compared to the previous five years, a trend that reflects affordability constraints and a more cautious approach to ownership,” says Naik.
Affordability and Flexibility Drive Change
The report reveals that shifting consumer preferences are reshaping the competitive landscape, with some established manufacturers experiencing year-over-year sales declines while more affordable and value-driven entrants continue to gain market share.
“The definition of value is changing,” says Naik. “It’s no longer just about the price tag, it’s about financing flexibility, long-term ownership costs, and trust in the product. That’s what’s driving consumer decisions today.”
Social Media's Growing Influence on South African Car Buyers
Generation Z’s1 rising influence, with a 27.9% year-on-year increase in vehicle finance volumes, highlights why social media has become essential for automotive brands aiming to attract younger buyers. As South Africans spend over 3.5 hours daily on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, 76% of users now turn to social media for product research, pushing automotive brands toward digital-first strategies with influencer campaigns, short-form videos, and interactive content, yet South Africa’s low social media ad spend signals a major untapped growth opportunity for marketers.
Social platforms are reshaping how South African consumers research, engage with, and purchase vehicles, particularly among Gen Z and Millennials1 who expect personalised, digital-first experiences. To stay competitive, brands are adopting influencer collaborations, platform-specific strategies, AI-enabled targeting, and immersive tools like augmented reality and virtual reality. Social commerce is gaining ground as buyers look for seamless, in-app journeys from browsing to booking.
Economic Outlook: Growth with Caution
The broader economic outlook for South Africa in 2025 remains cautiously optimistic, with GDP expected to grow by 1.4%, driven primarily by household consumption. While industrial output remains under pressure, consumer-driven sectors, particularly retail and vehicle sales, continue to show resilience. Vehicle export activity rose modestly by 0.4% year-over-year in Q1 2025, signalling a gradual recovery following the sharp decline in the previous quarter.
“The strong recovery in new vehicle sales is a positive sign,” says Naik. “But sustaining this growth will require policy certainty, infrastructure investment, and structural reforms. Without these, the economy remains vulnerable.”
“The South African automotive sector is adapting to new consumer behaviours and market forces. The insurance gap, affordability options, credit access and rising Gen Z1 participation will shape the road ahead. Collaboration across industry players is vital for long-term growth,” concludes Naik.
Read the full TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report here.
1 Generation X (Gen X): Born 1965–1980; Millennials (Gen Y): Born 1981–1996; Gen Z (Generation Z) Born 1997–2012
ENDS
Notes to Editors: To provide you with timely market insights, we are updating our reporting structure.
Starting this quarter, the Vehicle Pricing Index will be renamed the TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report, reflecting our broader focus on mobility trends. Vehicle Finance data will now be included in the TransUnion South Africa Industry Insights Report (IIR).
New Telco-Powered Credit Score Set to Transform Access to Finance for Millions of South Africans
- TransUnion Africa, MTN and its digital platform business, Chenosis, are collaborating to harness mobile network data, setting a new standard for financial inclusion and responsible lending
- A new alternative scoring solution, powered by Call Data Records (CDR), will help millions of financially excluded South Africans gain access to credit
- By incorporating non-traditional data based on consumer consent, lenders can make more accurate and fair credit decisions, reducing risk while increasing approval rates
TransUnion Africa, in partnership with MTN and Chenosis, has launched CreditVision® Telco Data Score, a first-of-its-kind credit scoring solution that uses mobile phone call data records to help millions of South Africans with limited or no formal credit history gain access to financial services.
This alternative data scoring model leverages Call Data Records (CDR), which reflect patterns in mobile phone network usage behaviour and correlates it to an individual’s financial behaviour. By using telco data as a proxy for financial reliability, the CreditVision Telco Data Score enables lenders to accurately assess New-to-Credit (NTC) consumers and expand access to safe, affordable credit.
Helping the Financially Excluded
According to TransUnion estimates, over 1.4 million credit-invisible South Africans open new credit accounts each year, contributing to more than four million new accounts over the past three years. Yet traditional scoring models often fail to assess this segment accurately, leaving more than 16 million adults outside the formal credit system.
Approximately 35% of New-to-Credit consumers are under the age of 25, many of whom are new to the workforce and often use credit to buy clothing for work, highlighting the need for innovative tools that support younger, digitally active individuals who may lack a conventional credit footprint. Successfully integrating these and other excluded consumers into the economy could add approximately R173 billion1 to South Africa's GDP.
“With over 500 million2 people across the continent excluded from formal financial systems, the scale of the challenge is undeniable. Traditional data models fail to reflect the realities of African consumers, leaving millions without access to credit and the opportunities it enables. Financial inclusion isn’t just part of our mission, it’s our mandate,” said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa. “That’s why we believe the only way forward is to think differently, to lead with bold, African-born solutions. Innovations like CreditVision Telco Data Score, designed for Africa, by Africa, are helping us responsibly harness mobile data at scale. In doing so, we’re not only expanding access to credit, but we’re also unlocking economic potential, accelerating inclusive growth, and reshaping the future of finance across the continent.”
Creating Opportunity with Consent and Compliance
The use of CDR data is subject to explicit consumer consent and is managed in compliance with South Africa’s Protection of Personal Information Act (POPIA). MTN is responsible for consent management and will ensure that Chenosis, MTN’s API marketplace, facilitates the connection between MTN’s data ecosystem and partners like TransUnion in a secure and scalable manner.
“This partnership demonstrates how mobile technology and secure data sharing can support positive change in the financial sector and unlock new opportunities for millions of South Africans,” said Selorm Adadevoh, Group Chief Commercial Officer, MTN Group. “We are committed to ensuring that data is used responsibly, with the customer’s interests at the forefront. This is a model of what responsible innovation can look like.”
Empowering Lenders and Growing the Economy
For lenders, the CreditVision Telco Data Score has demonstrated a 25–35% improvement in predictive performance over previous alternative data models, based on recent pre-launch validations across the retail and banking sectors.
By adopting CreditVision Telco Data Score, lenders can better predict user behaviour and support responsible lending by ensuring that credit users at risk of default are not overexposed and can be effectively supported throughout their credit journey.
Importantly, the product also helps New-to-Credit consumers establish and build their credit footprint over time. According to TransUnion data, low-risk individuals significantly increase their credit exposure within 18 months of becoming credit active, underscoring the long-term benefits of responsible financial inclusion strategies.
“With Chenosis, we enable collaboration between mobile operators and solution providers while maintaining high security and compliance standards,” said Waseem Amra, Head of Products and Platforms, Chenosis. “This partnership highlights how secure data access can support innovation in financial services that can transform lives.”
This partnership between TransUnion Africa, MTN, and Chenosis reflects the growing trend of using diverse data sources to create more accurate and inclusive financial access. Integrating mobile network insights into credit scoring provides a practical and scalable way to reach more individuals, while maintaining high standards of privacy and compliance.
“With this inclusive innovation, TransUnion has taken the lead in creating an impactful solution to one of the continent’s most pressing challenges – finding responsible pathways to greater financial inclusion that will unlock opportunities for individual and national growth. By turning mobile data into meaningful opportunity, we have set the standard in making transformation possible by showing how technology can be used in groundbreaking alternative ways. Together with MTN and Chenosis, we are building a future where every South African, regardless of their financial history, has the chance to be seen, to be trusted, and to thrive,” Naik concluded. “When financial institutions can measure risk more effectively, they can lend more confidently, and more consumers can access opportunity, and that’s a win for everyone.”
1. Based on TransUnion’s modelling and interpretation of economic market dynamics. 2. Source: The Global Findex Database 2021
South Africa’s Consumer Credit Market Sees Targeted Growth in Key Products, Despite New High in Personal Loans Delinquencies
- Credit card originations rose by 30.7% as demand grew, with below prime originations up by one third year-over-year (YoY)
- Vehicle finance originations grew significantly YoY, indicating growing momentum in the automotive industry
- Non-bank personal loans saw highest delinquency rate since previous high point in Q2 2021
According to TransUnion’s (NYSE:TRU) Q1 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report, the growth in originations of new credit cards, at 30.7% year-over-year (YoY), far outstripped growth for other consumer credit products during the first quarter of the year.
Strong growth in credit cards was driven, in part, by lenders extending cards to more below prime[1] borrowers than they did one year ago – up 33.1% YoY. Subprime and near prime borrowers accounted for 69.3% of credit card originations, up from 64.3% one year earlier. At the same time, lenders looked to actively manage the increased risk profile of borrowers by limiting the average credit limit on new credit cards – down 13.1% YoY.
Growth is likely to remain buoyant in the South African credit card market, with 33% of respondents to TransUnion’s recent Q1 2024 Consumer Pulse Survey saying that they planned to apply for a new credit card in the next 12 months.
Credit card average account balances increased by 7.1% YoY, although lenders’ default concerns may have been eased by the 20-basis point (bps) decrease in account-level delinquencies* over the same period, standing at 12.3% in Q1 2025.
“While inflation has dropped to the low end of the South African Reserve Bank’s target range during Q1 at close to 3%, South Africans are still experiencing financial pressures from prior price increases, turning to credit to help them make ends meet,” says Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion. “Despite these strains, consumers have increasingly prioritised keeping their credit cards in good standing, as they likely want to ensure access to the ongoing liquidity that this credit product provides.”
Vehicle loans grew at double-digit rate
The vehicle loans market continued to show encouraging signs of continued growth, as origination volumes increased by 11.6% YoY in Q1 2025. The average value of new loans also rose by 3.0% over the same period.
The highest growth rate continued to be among Gen Z[2] consumers, up 28.5% YoY. Within the Gen Z cohort, 62% of new vehicle loans were opened by consumers in the oldest subgroup in this generation, aged 26 to 29 years. This trend suggests that older Gen Z consumers are becoming increasingly active in the vehicle finance market, likely as they reach key life stages such as career stability and household formation. While this group is not necessarily New-to-Credit, their growing share of originations highlights a valuable opportunity for lenders to engage younger, upwardly mobile consumers.
In contrast, the share of vehicle loans declined across all other generations, with the exception of Gen X, where volumes remained relatively stable. This reinforces the importance of targeting older Gen Z consumers as a key growth segment in the vehicle finance space.
With a 0.25% repo rate cut announced by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) in January followed by another in May, demand for vehicle loans is likely to remain buoyant, with more than one fifth (22%) of South Africans surveyed in the TransUnion Q1 Consumer Pulse Survey indicating that they intend to take out a new car loan or lease in the next 12 months.
“With vehicle ownership is a priority due to limited public transport offerings, buying a vehicle is often a first step into secured credit for young professionals,” said Hatea. “Vehicle finance often requires relatively small deposits, and flexible financing options can be negotiated to make monthly repayments more affordable. Borrowers don’t need as extensive a credit history to purchase a vehicle as they do to buy a home. Successfully managing a vehicle loan demonstrates financial responsibility, which can strengthen future home loan applications.”
Personal loans leveraged for meeting monthly expenses
During the first quarter of the year, consumers also increasingly turned to personal loans as strategic tools to achieve their financial objectives, with originations growing for both bank and non-bank personal loan lenders – up 2.7% and 11.5% YoY, respectively. Demand for personal loans will likely continue, with 35% of surveyed South Africans saying that they intend to apply for a personal loan in the next 12 months.
However, non-bank lenders may yet have to refocus their risk management strategies in the coming months as more than two in five (41.3%) of South Africans who hold one of these loans – 83.9% of whom are below prime borrowers – being three months or more in arrears during Q1 2025. This is a 520-basis point (bps) YoY increase and is the highest delinquency rate for this product since the previous high of 39.1% in Q2 2021.
The delinquency rate among non-bank personal loans was 15 percentage points higher than delinquencies on bank personal loans, where below prime borrowers comprise 71.8% of the bank personal loans book.
“South Africans are increasingly turning to low-value personal loans with shorter repayment terms to manage their monthly expenses. However, persistently high delinquency rates — particularly among non-bank personal loans — indicate that many consumers are under significant financial pressure and struggling to meet their loan commitments,” says Hatea. “As lenders respond to growing demand for this type of credit, it’s essential they align their growth strategies with prudent risk management to ensure long-term sustainability.”
Home loans remain under pressure
Home loans were the only sector to experience a decline in originations in Q1 2025, down 10.8% YoY. Although originations fell across all risk tiers, loans to prime and above consumers saw a particularly sharp decline, down 21.1% YoY. This continues the downward trend in home loan growth observed since Q1 2020, with exception of a moderate YoY increase between Q1 2022 and Q1 2023.
“The fact that even prime consumers are pulling back from the housing market is a clear signal that affordability remains a significant barrier,” said Hatea. “This trend has implications not only for the credit market, but also for broader economic activity tied to home ownership and property development.”
As the housing finance sector continues to soften, lenders may need to reassess their strategies. This includes rethinking product design and pricing, as well as how they connect with younger consumers and first-time buyers, in order to reignite demand in a segment that has traditionally served as a foundation of secured lending.
Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)
|
Product |
YoY origination growth |
Serious account-level delinquency rate* |
YoY basis points (bps) change in delinquency rate |
| Credit card |
30.7% |
12.3% |
-20 bps |
| Bank personal loan |
2.7% |
26.3% |
14 bps |
| Non-bank personal loan |
11.5% |
41.3% |
520 bps |
| Clothing accounts |
7.6% |
25.9% |
-294 bps |
| Retail instalment |
16.0% |
27.1% |
-138 bps |
| Retail revolving |
5.4% |
14.9% |
-350 bps |
| Home loans |
-10.8% |
7.4% |
19 bps |
| Vehicle finance |
11.7% |
5.4% |
-1 bps |
*Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears
[1] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).
[2] TransUnion age distribution: Gen Z (Born 1995 – 2010); Millennials (Born 1980-1994); Gen X (Born 1965-1979); Baby Boomers (Born 1946-1964
Economic Growth Must Be the State’s Primary New Year’s Resolution
The GOOD Party supports the proposed 1.5% above-inflation rate increase to the minimum wage, which will rise from R28.79 per hour to more than R30 per hour in March 2026.
The post NEW MINIMUM WAGE A SMALL STEP TOWARDS FAIRNESS- BUT ECONOMIC GROWTH MUST BE THE STATE’S PRIMARY NEW YEAR’S RESOLUTION appeared first on For Good.
How African Consumers Set Global Trade Trends in the 1800s
Africa’s ‘new consumer class’ isn’t new; in the 1800s the continent called the tune for European factories.
Coups in Africa: How Democratic Failings Help Shape Military Takeovers – Study
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TransUnion Announces Minority Investment and Strategic Partnership with Omnisient to Accelerate Alternative Data Adoption
TransUnion today announced a minority investment and broader strategic partnership with Omnisient, a South Africa-founded FinTech operating internationally that offers a privacy-preserving data collaboration and advanced analytics platform. The Omnisient platform empowers businesses to safely access high-value consumer data ecosystems and rapidly integrate alternative data sets to drive intelligent decision-making. As part of the investment, a TransUnion representative will join Omnisient’s board of directors.
“The Omnisient platform allows multiple clients to use built-in advanced analytical tools to simultaneously evaluate the utility of diverse data sets, identifying those that deliver measurable value. Through this collaboration, TransUnion expects to gain access to a broader range of alternative data sources and privacy preservation capabilities. By accelerating the integration of high-impact data into our ecosystem, we intend to enhance existing solutions and develop new, market-relevant products that better meet the evolving needs of our customers,” said Lee Naik, Regional President/ CEO of TransUnion Africa.
“Traditional data models often fail to reflect the lived realities of African consumers, leaving millions without access to credit and the opportunities it enables,” said Naik. “Financial inclusion is central to unlocking economic growth across the continent. That’s why we’re committed to leading with bold, African-born solutions designed to see the unseen and serve the credit invisible by integrating alternative data sets alongside traditional credit data in ways that reflect uniquely African contexts and realities. By incorporating non-traditional indicators of financial behaviour, this approach broadens access to credit and helps us reach more underserved communities. We believe accelerating the adoption of alternative data is critical to closing the credit gap at scale, enabling faster, fairer and more inclusive access to financial services for millions across the continent."
“Our privacy-preserving data collaboration platform brings financial services and consumer brands together, allowing them to discover, validate and commercialise new alternative sources of consumer behavioural and transactional data without having to exchange sensitive personal information,” said Jon Jacobson, co-founder and group CEO of Omnisient. “This data allows financial institutions to make better risk decisions with more confidence and security, unlocking the potential to grow financial inclusion for hundreds of millions of people around the world.”
This collaboration marks a natural progression in TransUnion’s strategy to expand financial inclusion across Africa. By leveraging privacy-enabled alternative data sets through Omnisient’s platform, TransUnion intends to strengthen its ability to help address the challenge of bringing an estimated 500 million* financially excluded Africans into the formal financial ecosystem. By responsibly harnessing alternative data at scale, TransUnion sees the opportunity to bring millions of new-to-credit and credit-underserved consumers across Africa into the financial mainstream. This enables individuals to begin building a credit profile, many for the first time, laying the foundation for long-term economic empowerment. It’s a powerful demonstration of TransUnion’s commitment to using Information for Good® to drive measurable impact at scale: expanding access to credit, unlocking economic potential and reshaping the future of finance across Africa.
Global demand is rising for alternative data solutions that protect privacy, build trust and unlock value. Omnisient’s platform meets this need with technology that enables secure, privacy-preserving data collaboration. Instead of transferring raw data, Omnisient uses tokenised keys to represent personal information in the data set, ensuring privacy is maintained throughout the process. As a leading provider in Africa of secure, many-to-many data connectivity between banks, financial institutions and third-party sources, Omnisient is driving innovation in data collaboration.
*Source: The Global Findex Database 2021
South Africans Signal Cautious Confidence as Financial Habits Evolve
- TransUnion’s Q2 2025 Consumer Pulse Study reveals strategic shifts in saving, borrowing, and fraud defence, with younger generations leading the way
- 75% of South Africans expect their income to rise, but nearly 39% anticipate missing at least one bill or loan payment
- 45% of Gen Z and 39% of Millennials plan to apply for credit, leading a shift toward more proactive financial habits
- 58% of consumers were targeted by fraud in Q2, with many responding by strengthening their digital security
South African consumers are responding to ongoing financial pressures with increasing intent and vigilance. While inflation, high interest rates and job market uncertainty continue to weigh on household budgets, the latest TransUnion Consumer Pulse Study for Q2 2025* reveals a population adjusting not just defensively, but proactively. From rethinking spending and saving to becoming more discerning about credit and fraud, South Africans are adopting behaviours that suggest a shift toward long-term financial resilience, especially among younger generations.
“South Africans are showing resilience with purpose,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion. “They’re not simply reacting to pressure, they’re taking charge, rebalancing their finances and protecting their future.”
Mixed Incomes, Bold Adjustments
While there are some positive signs, many households are still experiencing fluctuations in their income. In the second quarter, 21% of consumers said their household income had decreased, while 38% reported an increase. A majority of respondents (75%) are hopeful that their earnings will increase in the next year. However, this confidence exists alongside financial challenges, with nearly 39% of consumers reporting that they expect they might miss at least one bill or loan payment in the near future.
This financial pressure is driving noticeable changes in how people manage their money. More than half of consumers (54%) trimmed back on non-essential expenses like dining out, entertainment and travel. Many are also taking steps to strengthen their financial security; 31% paid down debt faster, 24% put more into emergency savings or stokvels and 37% planned to increase their retirement or investment savings.
Generational Differences Define the Shift
While overall behaviours are trending positive, the evolution is not uniform across age groups. Younger consumers, particularly Gen Z (ages 18-28) and Millennials (29-44) are emerging as drivers of this transformation. They are more likely to apply for credit, monitor their credit reports frequently and adopt security tools like multi-factor authentication.
Forty-five percent of Gen Z respondents and 39% of Millennials indicated they plan to apply for or refinance credit in the next year, compared to just 27% of Gen X (45-60) and 15% of Baby Boomers (61+). They are also the most engaged in monitoring their credit monthly and believe that access to alternative data, such as rental or Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) payment histories, would improve their credit scores.
“Younger South Africans are embracing financial tools with growing confidence,” Hatea added. “They’re more comfortable with digital platforms, increasingly aware of how their financial choices affect their long-term goals, and, as a result, are more proactive about managing their credit.”
Cautious Credit Intent Amid Access Concerns
While 92% of consumers believe access to credit is important to achieving their financial goals, only 36% intend to apply for credit in the coming year, a figure that has remained stable since Q1. This cautious demand reflects continued uncertainty around employment, income and affordability.
Consumers favour unsecured lending, with credit cards (30%), personal loans (28%) and BNPL services (25%) attracting the most interest. Interest in secured lending remains comparatively low, with only 22% planning to apply for vehicle finance and 19% expressing interest in home loans.
Still, barriers remain. Nearly half (48%) of consumers said they had considered applying for credit but ultimately decided not to. The main reasons were income/ employment status (30%), high borrowing costs (29%) and concerns about their credit history (27%). Overall, 45% of consumers believed they would be approved if they applied for credit. While this figure reflects general sentiment, optimism tends to be higher among those who actively monitor their credit, suggesting a link between financial awareness and confidence.
Digital Fraud on the Rise, but So Is Awareness
As digital engagement grows, so does the threat of fraud. In Q2 2025, 58% of South Africans reported being targeted by fraud schemes, a decrease from the previous quarter (61%) with 13% confirming they had fallen victim. The most common scams included gift card or money transfer scams (33%), phishing (31%), smishing (30%) and third-party seller scams (28%).
Consumers are responding with heightened vigilance in response to cyber security concerns. A majority (59%) changed their passwords, 39% checked their credit reports and 25% added multi-factor authentication. Gen Z and Millennials were the most likely to take protective action, a likely result of both their greater exposure to digital platforms and higher awareness of evolving scam tactics. Alarmingly, 21% of consumers said they took no action at all, often citing uncertainty about what to do. This highlights the ongoing need for stronger cybersecurity and fraud education, and accessible protection tools.
“Consumers are trying to keep pace, but the threat landscape is evolving quickly,” said Hatea. “What we need now is a national conversation, one that gives all South Africans the knowledge and resources to protect their identities in a digital-first world.”
A Financial Turning Point
The Q2 2025 Consumer Pulse Study reveals a country making deliberate financial choices in the face of uncertainty. South Africans are shifting from survival mode to a more balanced, future-focused financial mindset. While challenges remain, the direction is clear; consumers are becoming more selective in how they spend, more strategic in how they borrow and more vigilant in how they protect themselves.
“At TransUnion, we believe these shifts represent not just resilience, but growth,” concluded Hatea. “South Africans are taking ownership of their financial journeys and in doing so, they’re laying the groundwork for lasting stability and inclusion.”
Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.
* This online survey of 922 adults was conducted May 5–25, 2025
Kouga’s Failed R1.4-Million Mini Market Project
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TransUnion Unlocks Smarter, Faster Financial Services for SMMEs and FinTechs With API Marketplace
- TransUnion’s new API Marketplace gives SMMEs and FinTechs instant, self-service access to credit, identity, and fraud prevention tools
- The platform simplifies integration, accelerates decision-making, and supports inclusive, data-driven financial services
- Designed for agility and scale, it empowers smaller businesses to compete and innovate in South Africa’s growing digital economy
- Improved access to accurate data enables businesses to better serve underserved communities, advancing equitable access to financial services
Global information and insights company TransUnion Africa has launched its API Marketplace, a streamlined digital platform designed to give small, medium, and micro enterprises (SMMEs) as well as FinTechs direct, self-service access to a wide range of credit, identity and fraud prevention solutions. The platform aims to simplify integration, strengthen risk assessment, and support the delivery of faster, more personalised financial services across the country. The API Marketplace helps reduce technical complexities, enabling companies to quickly incorporate credit checks, identity verification, and fraud detection into their operations for faster, more accurate decision-making.
Simplifying Access to Trusted Data Solutions
For many SMMEs and FinTechs, limited access to reliable credit data, time-consuming verification processes, and the burden of manual fraud checks can slow growth and undermine customer trust. The TransUnion API Marketplace addresses these pain points by allowing businesses to discover and embed TransUnion’s trusted data solutions directly into their systems, without lengthy onboarding processes or complex development cycles.
“With the launch of the TransUnion API Marketplace in South Africa, we’re empowering SMMEs and FinTechs with the tools they need to thrive in the digital economy,” says Dee Chetty, Chief Product Officer at TransUnion Africa. “It’s about lowering barriers to entry for businesses aiming to innovate quickly, deliver inclusive financial services, and make smarter decisions, while upholding the highest standards of data integrity and security.”
The platform offers real-time access to insights that support key business functions, from identity verification during customer onboarding to fraud flagging and credit risk assessment throughout the customer lifecycle. This is particularly powerful for SMMEs and FinTechs, which often operate with lean teams and need to maximise efficiency without compromising on due diligence.
Supporting Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth
According to the latest Mastercard SME Confidence Index, 90% of South African SMMEs have adopted digital payments in recent years, demonstrating the sector’s appetite for modernisation. However, many still lack access to the kind of scalable, reliable infrastructure that larger organisations take for granted. The API Marketplace bridges that gap, enabling smaller firms to leverage TransUnion’s capabilities in a cost-effective and agile way.
Crucially, the offering also supports national priorities around financial inclusion. Improving the flow of accurate credit and identity data enables businesses to offer more tailored products to underserved consumers, particularly in emerging markets and low-income communities. This helps create a more transparent and equitable financial ecosystem, where access to funding and services is based on real, data-driven insights.
“The API Marketplace is not just a product, it’s an enabler of impact,” adds Chetty. “We know that the future of inclusive finance in South Africa depends on access: to data, to tools, and to trust. This platform delivers on all three, helping more businesses deliver safe, responsible, and responsive financial products.”
Developer-Friendly Design for Rapid Deployment
Digitising integration through the API Marketplace enhances operational efficiency and significantly shortens development timelines. The platform includes a wide range of features designed for accessibility and ease of use. It offers a searchable API catalogue, developer-friendly documentation, and robust security protocols, all designed to reduce friction and accelerate deployment. A structured onboarding process is already in place, with plans to introduce full self-service and digital onboarding in the next phase of development.
Looking ahead, TransUnion sees the API Marketplace as a critical lever for economic resilience and innovation, particularly as the South African FinTech sector continues its rapid growth. The local FinTech market is projected to reach USD 14.86 billion by 2033, with APIs playing a foundational role in scaling new financial solutions.
Visit TransUnion’s API Marketplace for more information.
Vodacom Found Guilty of Unfair Market Practices
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Cape Town City Council Approves Plan to Sell Woodstock Hospital
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TransUnion South Africa Busts Three Short-Term Insurance Industry Myths
Every industry has its myths, and the short-term insurance environment is no exception: leading industry players plan their growth strategies around perceptions of a limited pool of customers, focusing mostly on pricing strategies to attract new business, and finding ways to avoid consumers perceived as too risky.
The best way to confirm or ‘bust’ industry myths is to test them through experiments and data analysis to reveal the truth – and that’s exactly what TransUnion South Africa did with data it holds in the short-term insurance sector.
“South African consumers remain under pressure despite recent interest rate cuts, making this an opportune moment for insurers to rethink their customer acquisition and retention strategies – and to challenge the truisms they’ve relied on in recent years,” said Schalk Fischer, insurance lead at TransUnion South Africa. “To drive better outcomes, insurers must evolve and adapt their strategies to respond to changing market conditions, drawing on risk-management solutions that feature unique data and advanced analytics.”
Myth 1: With stagnant total policy volumes, the only way for an insurer to grow is to win customers from other insurers.
In assessing all new short-term insurance policies taken out between April 2024 and March 2025, TransUnion found that only 17% of new policies were opened by consumers moving to another insurer. Another 37% involved ‘policy splitting’, where consumers moved cover of one of their assets to a new provider, but did not move their whole portfolio.
This means that roughly 54% of new policies are opened due to churn – a significant portion, but certainly not the overwhelming portion that many insurers believe it to be.
“This data shows key growth opportunities for insurers lie among consumers who are new to insurance. In fact, 33% of new policies opened during the time of the study were taken out by consumers who had not had an insurance premium in the previous 24 months,” Fischer said. “While the short-term industry will always be very competitive, there are growth opportunities outside of working aggressively to attract customers from other insurers.”
Myth 2: Loyalty in short-term insurance is dead. Price is the primary variable.
With many consumers scrambling for cost savings, price is perceived to be the most important differentiator between insurers, along with being seen as the main reason that consumers leave one insurer for another.
TransUnion’s analysis showed that 13% of insured consumers who cancel their insurance eventually return to their original insurance provider over time, without switching to another insurer in the interim.
This brand loyalty is fairly consistent between different distribution channels: 9% for banks’ insurance offerings, 11% for brokers, and 14% for direct insurers.
“These findings highlight that, while insurance pricing is certainly a leading consideration among consumers, it is evident that brand loyalty is still a driving factor,” Fischer said. “Marketing and acquisition strategies clearly focus on price, but there’s a greater than expected opportunity to build loyalty that will either retain customers or encourage them to return to brands they have trusted before.”
Myth 3: The new-to-insurance segment is small and only includes risky younger consumers.
TransUnion’s analysis revealed that one in three (33%) consumers who took out policies between April 2024 and March 2025 were new to insurance – they did not have short-term insurance payments linked to their identity number in the previous 24 months.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that all newly insured consumers were uninsured before. Some may have previously been covered under their partner or spouse, and later separated their insurance portfolios, or they could have been young adults who sought their own cover after being included in their parents’ policies.
“These findings show that insurers need to expand the scope of how they segment their target audiences, as new-to-insurance consumers are not always who they’re perceived to be,” Fischer adds.
The analysis revealed additional insights into consumers taking out a policy for the first time. Only 6% were aged 18 to 24 years – perceived to be the riskiest consumers – while the greatest portion of these consumers (36%) were aged 25 to 35 years, followed by 36 to 45 year olds, who took out 25% of new policies. It’s clear, then, that consumers aged 25 to 45 present the greatest opportunity for insurers.
In overlaying loyalty data with these findings, it emerged that only 1% of 18 to 24 year olds shopped around for a better deal once they were granted cover, while less than a quarter (24%) of 25 to 35 year olds shopped around. However, consumers aged 36 to 45 showed the greatest propensity to shop around for a better deal, with 29% taking on that challenge.
The myth is officially busted: opportunities for growth lie well beyond young consumers who have only just reached eligibility to apply for their own short-term insurance policies.
“While the short-term insurance market is perhaps not growing at the rate that many insurers would like, our analysis shows that it’s far from stagnant. Clear segmentation along with careful risk management and profitability assessments can help providers acquire lower-risk, higher-value customers across diverse groups of potential customers,” Fischer said. “While price remains a significant driver among consumers, other variables continue to play a meaningful role in building customer loyalty.”
Concern Raised Over Fairness and Transparency in MyCiTi Deviation Contract
We note with concern the City of Cape Town’s decision to conclude the deviation contract with the existing MyCiTi Phase 1A Vehicle Operating Companies without an open and competitive tender process.
The post CONCERN RAISED OVER FAIRNESS AND TRANSPARENCY IN MyCiTi DEVIATION CONTRACT appeared first on For Good.
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Content producers get away with fake news and clickbait
A Walk in the Night to Mark the End of Slavery
March through Cape Town commemorates the emancipation of slaves in 1834
South Africa’s Automotive Market Accelerates to 11-Year High as Value Brands and Younger Buyers Drive Momentum
- 111 697 new passenger vehicles sold in Q3 – up 23.4% year-on-year, the highest quarterly total since 2014
- Chinese brands captured a record 15%+ market share, growing almost nine times faster than the market average
- Passenger-vehicle exports rebounded 4.1% year-on-year, powered by a 63.7% September surge to a six-year high
South Africa’s automotive market shifted into top gear in the third quarter of 2025, posting its strongest sales performance in more than a decade as greater macro-economic stability, easing interest rates and a firmer rand supported renewed consumer demand. According to TransUnion’s Q3 2025 Mobility Insights Report, total new-passenger-vehicle sales reached 111 697 units, 23.4% higher year-on-year (YoY), while new vehicle inflation dropped to a record low of 1.5% (since tracking began in 2008), creating one of the most competitive pricing environments in recent memory.
“Affordability and choice are redefining South Africa’s automotive landscape,” says Lee Naik, CEO TransUnion Africa. “Consumers are seeking greater value and flexibility and manufacturers that meet this demand through innovation and pricing discipline are winning the race for growth.”
Affordability Drives Record Growth and Market Realignment
Although established OEMs returned to positive growth in Q2 and Q3 2025, the market’s transformation is being led by Chinese manufacturers expanding nearly nine times faster than the overall market, with YoY growth of 89% in Q2 and 88% in Q3.
Their combined share has quadrupled since 2021 to more than 15%, powered by competitively priced, feature-rich SUVs and sedans that appeal to cost-conscious yet tech-savvy buyers. Top-performing value brands YoY included JAC (67% volume increase), GWM (54%), Mahindra (42%) and Chery (35%), while BMW (27%) proved that premium marques can still thrive by combining desirability with strong product pipelines.
“This isn’t a short-term surge, it’s a structural reset,” adds Naik. “The success of value-driven models shows how affordability, technology and trust are now the true levers of brand growth in South Africa.”
Younger and High-Income Buyers Sustain Demand
Despite surging sales, TransUnion’s recent Consumer Pulse Survey shows a modest easing in purchase intent, with the share of respondents likely to buy a vehicle in the next three months declining from 19% in Q2 to 17% in Q3. The report suggests that current sales momentum is being driven primarily by pent-up demand, dealer incentives and fleet renewals, rather than broad-based consumer confidence.
Purchase behaviour also remains sharply segmented across both age and income groups. Younger consumers continue to lead intent, with 21% of Gen Z and 19% of Millennials planning to buy a vehicle in the next three months, compared to 13% of Gen X and 8% of Baby Boomers. From an income perspective, high-income households earning R200 000 or more per month show the strongest intent at 34%, while middle- and lower-income consumers remain significantly more cautious in their purchasing outlook.
Electrification: A Tale of Price and Generation
Internal-combustion vehicles (ICE) remain the single largest category in consumer purchase intent, accounting for 42% of consumer preference, while interest in hybrid (39%) and plug-in hybrid (24%) models is steadily increasing. The shift toward electrification is most pronounced among Gen Z consumers, with 55% favouring hybrids and 32% considering battery-electric vehicles (BEVs).
This generational shift toward greener technology is evident among high-income buyers, with 75% considering plug-in hybrids, driven primarily by their perceived affordability. In contrast, preference for ICE vehicles remains largely affordability-based among lower-income segments. Higher budgets within affluent households enable greater consideration of hybrid electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV), and battery electric vehicles (BEV), reinforcing an emerging “electrification divide.” This dynamic presents a significant opportunity for OEMs and financiers to tailor product offerings and financing strategies to meet the distinct needs of different age and income segments.
Connected Cars: Data Becomes the New Engine
Q3’s Mobility Insights Report special feature, The Connected Road, explores how connected-car technology is transforming mobility. Connectivity is now standard in most post-2015 vehicles, enabling real-time navigation, predictive maintenance, remote access, and advanced safety systems. Yet global data warns of “connectivity fatigue”: Over three quarters (76%) of drivers internationally don’t subscribe to connected services, mainly due to cost.
Naik says: “South Africa has a chance to leapfrog global missteps by focusing on value-adding applications, safer driving, cheaper insurance and smarter maintenance rather than gimmicks.”
Exports Rebound and Dealer Confidence Climbs
Passenger-vehicle unit exports rose 4.1% YoY after a steep Q2 contraction, driven by a 63.7% September surge that lifted shipments to a six-year high. Meanwhile, the RMB/BER Motor Traders Confidence Index advanced to 54, marking its second net-positive reading of 2025 and notably placing it above the neutral 50-point mark, which signals growing dealer optimism amid sustained sales momentum and improving export conditions.
Balancing Value and Transformation
The convergence of affordability, segmentation, electrification, and connectivity signals a pivotal shift in the automotive industry. “The future belongs to brands and financiers that master both the value-driven present and the connected, electrified future,” concludes Naik. “Data-led insight will be the bridge that connects today’s strategies with tomorrow’s innovation
Read the full TransUnion South Africa Q3 2025 Mobility Insights Report here.
South African Automotive Market: Recovery Gains Traction but Headwinds Persist
- New passenger sales rose 22.5% year-on-year, the strongest volumes since 2014
- Chinese automakers expanded their market share to nearly 15%, up from just 3.1% in 2022
- Passenger-vehicle exports contracted sharply, down 24.6% amid weaker global demand and new US tariffs
TransUnion’s latest Mobility Insights Report shows South Africa’s automotive market building momentum in 2025, supported by a favourable interest rate environment, record-low new-vehicle inflation, and liquidity from the two-pot pension reform. While recovery is underway, the outlook remains fragile, with affordability constraints and export headwinds threatening longer-term growth.
Supportive Shifts, But Growth Remains Fragile
The South African Reserve Bank has cut interest rates five times since September 2024 and inflation has returned to the lower end of the 3-6% band1, providing households with some relief. Consumer confidence has improved among middle- and higher-income groups, although low-income consumers continue to face pressure from food and electricity costs2.
“These macro shifts provide short-term support to the vehicle market, but momentum is likely to taper in 2026 without further reforms,” said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa.
Affordability And Value Drive a Surge
Passenger car sales broke through the 35,000-unit ceiling for the first time in years, with July and August 2025 marking the strongest volumes since 2014. According to Naamsa, new passenger car sales grew 22.5% year-over-year (YoY) in Q2, fuelled by lower borrowing costs, aggressive OEM incentives and the entry of new value-focused brands.
Chinese automakers continued their rapid growth, expanding market share from 3.1% in 2022 to nearly 15% in Q2 2025. Their affordable, tech-rich SUVs and expanding dealer networks are reshaping competition, forcing legacy OEMs to rethink pricing, features, and model cycles. Toyota retained overall leadership, with Suzuki securing second place for the second consecutive quarter.
“Improved affordability, aggressive incentives and growing demand for value brands, alongside modest support from two-pot withdrawals, helped sustain momentum through 2025. However, as interest rates remain elevated and credit conditions tighten, and the two-pot effect normalises, growth is expected to moderate in 2026, with export risks and rand volatility adding uncertainty,” said Naik.
Diverging Trends: New vs. Used Vehicle Demand
NaTIS data shows new registrations rising 20% YoY in Q2 2025, led by Northern Cape, Free State and Northwest. In contrast, used registrations declined by 1.4%, reflecting pressure in that segment.
Across all vehicle sales, the Used-to-New Vehicle Registration Ratio rose to 3.2 in Q2, up from 2.5 in Q1, indicating a quarter-on-quarter increase in the relative share of used vehicle registrations. However, this remains below the 3.8 ratio seen through much of 2024, suggesting that new vehicles have regained some ground YoY. While used vehicles continue to dominate overall registrations, the market has shifted slightly back toward new vehicles compared to last year. This nuanced divergence presents opportunities for OEMs and dealer networks, while independent used dealers continue to face headwinds.
Exports Slump Amid Global Shocks
While domestic momentum improves, passenger vehicle exports fell 24.6% in Q2 2025 due to softer global demand and new US tariffs of up to 30%. Premium models, heavily reliant on the US and European markets, are under pressure, raising concerns for production, jobs, and investment.
Two-pot Withdrawals: Targeted Liquidity with Visible Impact
The September 2024 two-pot retirement reform injected liquidity into households, with evidence from the Bureau of Market Research suggesting a direct impact on mobility demand3, particularly in the used car market. While withdrawals were generally insufficient to fund deposits for new vehicles, they provided meaningful support to affordability-driven used vehicle purchases.
The reform is offering short-term relief rather than long-term wealth extraction, with withdrawals largely used for deposits, consumption, or debt repayment. Generational differences are evident: Millennials (aged 29 to 44) and younger Gen X (aged 18 to 28) are the most active claimants, while Baby Boomers withdraw minimally. Repeat withdrawals are becoming more common, suggesting both ongoing financial strain and the emergence of a recurring source of liquidity for entry-level and mid-market segments4.
“Two-pot withdrawals were not the only factor lifting sales,” noted Naik. “But the timing, scale and claimant profile suggest they acted as a meaningful catalyst for incremental used-car purchases.”
What Industry Players Should Do Next
Looking ahead, TransUnion advises that OEMs, dealers and lenders recalibrate strategies to balance domestic opportunities with external risks. Industry participants should align campaigns with liquidity cycles, planning promotions and stock availability around expected two-pot withdrawal windows.
Affordability must remain the priority, with a sharpened focus on value brands, certified pre-owned vehicles, and models that deliver a strong total cost of ownership. Financing solutions should also evolve, offering deposit support, trade-in boosters, and more flexible terms, while carefully monitoring repayment behaviour to manage post-purchase risk.
At the same time, leveraging data-driven insights, integrating credit and registration analytics to identify liquidity-sensitive buyers, preapprove customers, and track repayment performance, will be critical for sustaining growth in an uncertain environment.
“South Africa’s auto market is regaining momentum, but it’s a fragile recovery,” said Naik. “Those who time offers to policy-driven liquidity, sharpen affordability, and manage risk proactively will be best placed to capture growth.”
Read the full TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report here.
ENDS
Notes to Editors: The Q2 2025 release is the second edition of the TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report, formerly known as the Vehicle Pricing Index. The rebranded report now captures broader consumer, financing, and insurance insights across the mobility ecosystem.
Sources:
1 South African Reserve Bank (SARB)
2 TransUnion-South-Africa-CCI-Report-H2-2025-V9.pdf
3 Two-pot-claims-and-credit-data-FINAL.pdf
4 FAnews: Majority of two-pot withdrawals in the new tax year are repeat withdrawals; Moneyweb: Two-pot withdrawal: repeat claims surge; and Moneyweb, Two-pot payouts surge to R57B, with 4m withdrawals to date.
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South Africa’s Credit Market Expanded During Q2 2025 Amid Eased Interest Rates and Shifting Consumer Risk
- Millennial consumers drove significant new credit card growth, although new card limits dropped significantly
- Vehicle asset finance growth trend continued, with more than two thirds of loans originated by Gen Z and Millennial consumers
- Eased interest rates drove year-over-year growth in home loan originations, although affordability pressures may be impacting performance
South Africans responded to a more favourable interest rate environment during Q2 2025, leading to increased new account originations across most consumer credit products, particularly for credit cards and vehicle finance. Home loan activity also showed signs of recovery, as consumers felt more confident in committing to longer-term credit obligations. Retail revolving loans were the exception, with origination volumes declining despite growth in balances.
These are some of the findings of TransUnion’s Q2 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report, which also found that South Africans were managing their credit better, as delinquencies improved across most consumer credit products during the quarter.
Credit Card Market Continued Upward Trajectory
Credit card originations increased by a robust 36.5% year-over-year (YoY), underscoring this product’s relevance as a flexible financial tool for consumers seeking convenience and/or liquidity in what remains a challenging economic environment. Millennials (born 1980 to 1994) drove this growth, with originations in this cohort making up 47.6% of all originations in the period.
Lenders seeking to expand market share continued to extend credit to consumers in higher-risk prime and below risk tiers[1], with originations to subprime consumers increased by 49.2% YoY. They balanced this growth among higher-risk borrowers with smaller credit limits. The average credit limit on new credit cards decreased by 19.5% YoY during the quarter.
Delinquency trends showed mixed results. Credit card balance-level delinquency rose slightly to 18.1%, up 13 basis points (bps) YoY, indicating a marginal increase in overdue balances. In contrast, account-level delinquency rates declined by 32 bps YoY to 12.1%. This decline in account-level delinquency suggests that while some consumers accumulated larger balances, many were able to make payments to keep their accounts active.
“The latest credit cards trends reflect strategic credit use and disciplined repayment behaviour among a financially stretched borrower base,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “The combination of rising origination volumes and shrinking new credit lines suggests that lenders are working to balance growth with prudent risk management. Lenders may need to refine their segmentation strategies, enhance early warning systems, and tailor credit line management to sustain portfolio health while supporting customers’ financial needs.”
Vehicle Asset Finance Shows Continued Growth
Vehicle asset finance originations increased by 21.0% YoY in Q2 2025, and average new loan amounts increased by 3.5% while the number of active accounts increased by 2.1% YoY. Growth was mainly driven by Gen Z (aged 18 to 28) and Millennial (aged 29 to 44) consumers who accounted for 64.3% of originations.
Outstanding balances grew by 7.6% YoY, and average balances have increased by more than 30% over the last five years, reflecting both higher vehicle prices and a sustained trend toward longer loan terms, which slows loan balance paydown rates. Loan terms granted during Q2 2025 averaged 74 months, up from 73 months in Q2 2024 and 72 months in Q2 2023. Longer loan terms, while slowing balance paydown, result in lower monthly payment amounts, which help consumers manage monthly cash flow in a high-cost environment.
Younger consumers are beginning to look for more ways to enter the vehicle market, including taking advantage of more cost-effective imported vehicles. However, 65% of vehicle finance originations were made by repeat buyers during Q2 2025, suggesting that access to vehicle finance remains limited for new entrants. At the same time, lenders need to be mindful of rising risk levels: in the second quarter of 2025, 44% of new-to-vehicle finance consumers fell into the subprime risk tier. These trends highlight the need for lenders to design credit products that support younger buyers, while ensuring responsible credit practices are upheld.
Account-level delinquencies for vehicle asset finance improved by 24 bps YoY to 5.1%, demonstrating that repayment behaviour for this product remained relatively stable, and that the overall risk profile of this portfolio is improving.
“For vehicle finance lenders, the rise in originations alongside modest growth in loan amounts suggests an opportunity to support demand while maintaining portfolio discipline,” said Hatea. “The improvement in delinquency rates is encouraging, but ongoing monitoring will be essential as economic recovery remains uneven. Vehicle finance lenders may benefit from refining pricing models, reassessing vehicle segmentation strategies, and balancing growth with prudent risk management.”
Home Loan Market Responds Positively to Eased Interest Rates
Lower interest rates, moderating inflation and improved real wage growth led to stronger consumer sentiment, giving lenders an opportunity to re-engage with consumers seeking home loans. New home loan account originations increased by 6.8% YoY during Q2 2025, showing early signs of recovery after declines in growth over previous quarters.
Favourable interest rate conditions and enhanced credit access drove broader access to home ownership this quarter, with 51% of home loans granted to individuals taking a home loan for the first time — the highest proportion in over five years. Among these, 56% were Millennials and 24% were Gen Z.
Delinquency trends showed mild deterioration, with the account-level delinquency rate increased by 29 bps to 7.5%. These movements suggest that while the market is stabilising, repayment stress remains a concern.
“These trends indicate a home loan market that is stabilising, but not without risk,” said Hatea. “For home loan lenders, the uptick in originations presents an opportunity to re-engage with the market, but rising delinquency rates underscore the need for vigilance. Portfolio strategies may need to shift toward enhanced consumer profile assessments, proactive risk monitoring, and targeted engagement with borrowers showing early signs of strain. As the market navigates this transitional phase, balancing growth with resilience will be key.”
Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)
|
Product |
YoY origination growth |
Serious account-level delinquency rate* |
YoY basis points (bps) change in delinquency rate |
| Credit card |
36.5% |
12.1% |
-32 bps |
| Bank personal loan |
2.2% |
25.9% |
-72 bps |
| Non-bank personal loan |
18.8% |
41.3% |
256 bps |
| Clothing accounts |
6.5% |
25.9% |
-265 bps |
| Retail instalment |
21.4% |
25.5% |
-238 bps |
| Retail revolving |
-6.3% |
14.9% |
-251 bps |
| Home loans |
6.8% |
7.5% |
29 bps |
| Vehicle finance |
21.0% |
5.1% |
-24 bps |
*Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears
[1] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).