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How South Africa’s Fintech Industry Is Driving Financial Wellness Through Responsible BNPL Innovation
- Rising costs are pushing South Africans to seek smarter ways to manage money. BNPL offers flexible, low-risk relief for monthly budgets.
- Responsible BNPL isn’t just a payment method; it’s a financial wellness tool.
- When used responsibly, access to interest-free instalments and transparency help consumers avoid high interest or unaffordable debt and build better habits.
As economic pressure mounts and the cost of living continues to rise, South Africans are seeking new ways to balance their monthly budgets without falling deeper into debt. Within this landscape, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) models are rapidly reshaping how consumers approach spending, offering flexibility and access while encouraging responsible money management.
Industry leaders agree that when used correctly, BNPL can be more than a payment tool; it can be a gateway to financial wellness, empowering consumers to make informed, controlled spending decisions that support long-term stability.
“Financial wellness goes beyond survival,” says Mladen Čolić, Head of Fintech at TransUnion South Africa. “It’s about giving consumers visibility into their financial behaviour and the tools to make better decisions. Responsible BNPL use can play a meaningful role in that journey, helping people manage their cash flow, avoid high cost or unmanageable debt, and build a foundation for long-term financial stability.”
From Financial Stability to Financial Wellness
The most recent TransUnion Q4 2025 Consumer Pulse Study shows that while South African households remain under financial pressure, signs of financial adaptation are emerging. In Q4, 48% of consumers reported that their household finances were better than planned, yet 36% anticipated missing at least one bill or loan repayment, highlighting the continued strain many households face. In response, 51% of consumers reported cutting discretionary spending, while others adjusted budgets and prioritised longer-term financial stability. Within this cautious environment, more consumers are turning to flexible digital credit options like BNPL which, when used responsibly, can offer a manageable form of short-term borrowing to help navigate ongoing affordability pressures.
According to data from Payflex, the South African BNPL market Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is greater than 80% since 2022, with usage particularly strong in fashion, beauty, and consumer electronics categories. E-commerce platforms continue to drive adoption, and BNPL transactions will account for an estimated R25 billion in annual retail spend by 2026, highlighting its growing role in the formal retail economy.
This shift reflects an evolution in how consumers think about money. Financial stability is about meeting immediate needs, keeping bills paid and food on the table while financial wellness goes further, focusing on sustainable, informed financial behaviours that build confidence and resilience over time.
How BNPL Supports Smarter Spending
BNPL allows consumers to purchase goods or services and repay them over a short, fixed instalment period, typically three or four payments at zero interest when paid on time, offering a structured alternative to other forms of short-term credit. For some consumers, avoiding revolving debt allows them to plan purchases more effectively and smooth out cash flow without the burden of high-interest credit.
“BNPL isn’t about fuelling more debt,” says Tracey-Lee Zürcher-Campbell, Chief Marketing Officer at Payflex. “It’s about giving consumers flexibility and predictability, helping them manage their cash flow responsibly while avoiding the pitfalls of high-interest credit. When used correctly, BNPL can support everyday financial stability and contribute to broader financial wellness.”
She adds that this level of transparency is key to consumer trust: “South Africans are increasingly discerning about the financial tools they use. They want products that help them live better within their means, not overextend them. BNPL works when it’s built around clarity, discipline, and accountability.”
Data, Discipline, and Wealth Creation
Responsible BNPL models, supported by data analytics, affordability checks, and consumer education are essential to keeping the category sustainable. For many, these tools also offer a path toward financial inclusion.
Encouraging on-time repayments and transparent data sharing enables BNPL providers to help consumers build a positive payment history, strengthening their financial reputation over time. “When BNPL data is shared responsibly, every on-time payment becomes a useful indicator of positive financial behaviour,” says Čolić. “These data points help build a more complete view of a consumer’s financial profile, supporting greater access and accountability over time.”
As South Africa looks to expanding regulation to support BNPL, the financial sector is showing growing alignment around the principles of transparency, affordability, and responsible innovation. From credit bureaus and FinTechs to retailers and regulators, the shared goal is to ensure that digital credit tools enhance rather than undermine consumer wellbeing.
“The FinTech industry has a collective responsibility to innovate with purpose,” says Zürcher-Campbell. “That means designing products that empower South Africans to make better financial decisions, not just more transactions. When people understand and control their financial choices, they can move from survival to real wellness.”
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South Africa’s Credit Market in Q3 2025: Strategic Moves to Manage Risk
-
Vehicle asset finance originations continued to surge, driven by younger consumers and prime and below risk tiers
-
Credit card originations grew, as higher demand was met with lower new account credit limits
-
Personal loan growth and risk patterns diverged amongst bank and non-bank lenders
TransUnion’s Q3 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report highlights key trends in the South Africa credit market: vehicle asset finance continued its recovery, with stable account volumes and rising balances supported by longer loan terms and more affordable vehicle choices. Credit card usage expanded, with total book balances growing faster than account volumes, even as average balances per card remained stable and new account credit limits were reduced. Non-bank personal loans surged, driven by higher-risk consumers, though elevated delinquencies underscore the importance of strong affordability checks and consumer safeguards.
These shifting patterns in credit demand, usage and risk occurred against the backdrop of a cautiously improving economy. A 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut in July, driven by favourable inflation trends, gave consumers some relief. However, unemployment remained high[1] at 31.9% for the quarter, highlighting persistent labour pressures that constrained the wallets of many consumers.
Within this context, the credit market showed signs of strategic adjustment. Consumers — especially younger cohorts — relied more on credit to manage day-to-day expenses and cash flow, while lenders recalibrated growth and risk strategies.
Vehicle Asset Finance Recovery Extended
South Africa’s vehicle finance market grew for the third consecutive quarter, driven by younger consumers in prime and below-prime risk tiers. New account originations rose 17.2% year-over-year (YoY), with the average new loan amount increasing to R412,000, up from R400,962 a year earlier.
Growth was supported by a shift in the used-to-new financing ratio, which fell from 2.67 in Q3 2020 to 1.03 in Q3 2025. Near-parity between new and used financing reflects the availability of budget-friendly new models, often compact or entry-level, that have narrowed the cost gap.
Consumers also opted for longer loan terms, prioritising monthly affordability over total lifetime financing cost. In Q3 2025, 49.6% of loans were for 72 months or longer, up from 38.2% four years ago and 45.6% in Q3 2024.
First-time buyer participation remained strong at 42% of originations, slightly up from 40% a year earlier. Nearly one-third (32%) of originations were to Gen Z consumers (born 1995–2010). Among first-time buyers, 80% were prime or below[2], compared to 48% for existing borrowers.
Account-level delinquencies stayed elevated at 7.2%, which underscores the need for early warning and pre-delinquency outreach, especially for borrowers showing signs of payment strain and increased reliance on credit.
“The market is stabilising away from the post-pandemic skew toward used vehicles, supporting consumers’ preferences for warranty coverage and predictable maintenance while expanding inclusion and access,” said Hatea. “In an increasingly competitive market, lenders need to calibrate loan terms, deposits, and residual values to match current conditions and customise products and insurance bundles for segments returning to new purchases.”
Credit Cards Reinforced Role as Financial Buffers for Consumers
Consumers remained under pressure: more than four in ten (41%) households said their income was not keeping up with inflation in Q3 2025, and 77% listed inflation for everyday goods as a top concern, according to TransUnion’s Q3 Consumer Pulse Study.
As consumers sought liquidity amid these concerns, credit card originations rose 13.8% YoY, although average credit limits on new cards issued fell 9.8% YoY. Outstanding balances increased 7.7% YoY, and average balances per card were up 2.6% YoY. The risk mix of card originations shifted towards higher risk borrowers: subprime consumers comprised 58.3% of new cards opened in Q3 2025, up from 52.4% a year earlier, while the share held by prime and above borrowers declined.
Lower credit limits on new cards likely reflect lenders’ efforts to manage affordability and mitigate risk exposure, even as originations skewed toward higher-risk borrowers.
Account-level delinquency increased to 12.7%. This, along with a heavier subprime mix, stable balances, and lower credit lines suggests that lenders have deliberately shifted their focus to riskier borrowers to fuel growth.
Consumers also managed their financial obligations by taking out additional credit. This was evident in the Q3 2025 TransUnion Consumer Pulse Report which found that nearly one third (30%) of surveyed consumers stated that they took an additional credit product to pay off an existing credit product during the quarter.
“While lenders seek growth, they are simultaneously tightening credit lines and deploying early interventions to protect portfolio quality,” said Hatea. “Dynamic credit line strategies and early interventions are key. Expanding pre-delinquency outreach and offering short-term hardship solutions can prevent roll-through into missed payments beyond three months, especially for subprime consumers carrying larger balances.”
Bank and Non-Bank Personal Loan Trends Diverged Further
Differences in growth and risk patterns between bank and non-bank lenders widened in Q3 2025. Banks expanded cautiously, focusing on larger, purposeful loans, while non-bank lenders grew through smaller, short-term loans aimed at higher-risk segments. These shifts reflect differing consumer targeting strategies of the two lender groups and increasing affordability pressures on higher-risk borrowers.
Bank-issued personal loan originations rose 7.6% YoY, with average new loan amounts up 9.3% YoY, reinforcing a trend toward larger loans for purposeful borrowing. However, the number of consumers carrying a personal loan balance fell 3.6% from the previous quarter, suggesting loan consolidation and/or repayment by borrowers. Account-level delinquency reached 28.1%, indicating repayment strain despite banks’ disciplined approach to growth and proactive measures to manage long-term defaults.
Non-bank personal loan originations rose 8.5% YoY, but average new personal loan amounts fell by the same margin of 8.5%. Average balances per account dropped 31.9% YoY, showing that these loans are increasingly used for short-term or emergency needs rather than financing larger purchases or debt consolidation. Risk indicators deteriorated sharply: account-level delinquencies surged upwards to 49.4%, highlighting rising financial stress among non-bank personal loan borrowers, compounded by a greater concentration of subprime consumers.
“Personal loan lenders need to balance access with sustainability,” said Hatea. “Stronger affordability checks and better early warning systems can prevent roll-through into deeper delinquency. Proactive engagement with at-risk consumers and tailored hardship solutions will help preserve portfolio health while maintaining access to credit.”
Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)
|
Product |
YoY origination growth |
Serious account-level delinquency rate* |
| Credit card |
13.80% |
12.70% |
| Bank personal loan |
7.60% |
28.10% |
| Non-bank personal loan |
8.50% |
49.40% |
| Clothing accounts |
9.85% |
25.60% |
| Retail instalment |
-1.45% |
27.40% |
| Retail revolving |
5.20% |
17.90% |
| Home loans |
10.68% |
7.60% |
| Vehicle finance |
17.20% |
7.20% |
*Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears
With an improving macroeconomic environment, driven by moderating inflation and associated interest rate cuts, continued shifts in the consumer credit market are to be expected. However, Hatea concluded: “Even though there are cautious signs of improvement, lenders and policymakers must remain agile when balancing growth with resilience. Refining segmentation strategies and enhancing early risk detection will be key to supporting consumer financial health and maintaining long-term portfolio stability.”
[1] Trading Economics South Africa Unemployment Rate
[2] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).
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South Africa’s Auto Market Shows Signs of Recovery as Used Vehicle Demand Rises
- Used vehicle financing outpaces new car financing, with a ratio of 1.56 to 1 as affordability remains a key driver
- New vehicle finance agreements grow by 12.7% YoY, despite economic uncertainty
- South Africa reaches a milestone of 1,000+ battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales in 2024, with PHEV and HEV sales growing over 60% YoY
The latest TransUnion South Africa Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) for Q4 2024 reveals a cautiously optimistic outlook for the country’s automotive sector, with improving economic conditions encouraging consumer confidence while affordability challenges continue to shape purchasing decisions.
Key insights from the report indicate a continued shift towards used vehicles, with financing for pre-owned vehicles outpacing new car financing at a ratio of 1.56 to 1, up from 1.23 in Q4 2023. Meanwhile, new vehicle prices increased by 1.7% due to supply chain constraints and production costs, while used vehicle prices declined by 2.8%, making them a more attractive option for cost-conscious buyers.
Despite these challenges, new vehicle finance agreements grew by 12.7% year-over-year (YoY), with Gen X and Millennials accounting for 67% of new agreements*.
“South Africa’s automotive sector is navigating a complex landscape, balancing economic improvements with persistent affordability challenges,” says Marcia Mayaba, Sales Vice President, Auto Information Services at TransUnion South Africa. “The demand for used vehicles continues to grow, while we’re also seeing an increasing shift towards alternative financing and ownership models, such as leasing and car subscriptions, particularly among younger consumers.”
Used Vehicles Dominate, While New Car Market Seeks Stability
The Q4 2024 VPI report highlights a strong preference for used vehicles, with financing activity significantly outpacing new vehicle sales. This shift is largely driven by affordability concerns, as inflationary pressures and high vehicle prices continue to impact consumer purchasing decisions.
The used-to-new financing ratio increased to 1.56 in Q4 2024, reflecting a clear trend toward more budget-friendly alternatives. At the same time, new vehicle registrations grew by 14.4% YoY, supported by improved economic conditions and rising consumer confidence.
The Future of South Africa’s Auto Market: EV Growth and Digital Financing
Looking ahead, the report highlights the rising potential of electric vehicles (EVs) in South Africa, signalling a significant shift in consumer interest and market dynamics. The country reached a milestone of over 1,000 battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales in 2024, a small but significant step in a market still dominated by petrol and diesel vehicles. While EVs represent a fraction of total sales, the 60% year-over-year growth in hybrid (HEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales signals a gradual shift in consumer interest toward more sustainable options.
The introduction of more affordable EV models priced under R1 million, such as the BYD Dolphin and Seal, is expected to accelerate adoption in 2025, making EV ownership more accessible to a broader segment of the market. However, affordability remains a key barrier, with high upfront costs and concerns around charging infrastructure limiting mainstream adoption.
“EV adoption in South Africa is gaining momentum, but for this growth to be sustained, industry players must collaborate to make ownership more accessible," says Mayaba. "With the right financial products, infrastructure expansion, and increased consumer awareness, EVs have the potential to reshape South Africa’s automotive landscape in the years to come.”
Financing Trends and Alternative Ownership Models Gain Momentum
The report also reveals an evolving vehicle financing landscape, with leasing, subscriptions, and rent-to-buy agreements gaining traction as consumers seek more flexible and cost-effective solutions.
For the first time, the Q4 2024 VPI report explores the impact of e-Hailing, leasing, and car subscriptions on the South African auto market. While outright vehicle ownership remains dominant, alternative mobility solutions are becoming increasingly relevant. The report indicates that leasing and subscription-based models are particularly appealing to Millennials and Gen Z consumers, who prioritise affordability and flexibility over long-term ownership commitments.
Additionally, e-Hailing continues to serve as a supplementary transport solution rather than a direct competitor to vehicle ownership. According to recent data from inDrive, an international ride-hailing service, 21.1% of South Africans make us of e-hailing services, reflecting the growing popularity of these transportation alternatives. However, the majority of users still aspire to own a vehicle in the long term. To address affordability constraints and credit access challenges, leasing and rent-to-buy options are emerging as viable alternatives, offering consumers flexible solutions that align with their financial situations.
While lower-value finance agreements (under R250,000) declined, a growing share of financed vehicles now falls within the R250,000 to R750,000 range. This shift suggests that while affordability remains a concern, consumers are prioritising flexible financing solutions and adjusting their purchasing behaviour to align with available credit and economic conditions
“The traditional model of vehicle ownership is evolving,” adds Mayaba. “While outright ownership remains a key aspiration, younger generations are increasingly exploring flexible mobility solutions that align with their financial realities and lifestyle preferences.”
As South Africa’s automotive sector continues to evolve, the interplay between affordability, alternative financing models, and emerging technologies like EVs will shape its future. While used vehicles remain the preferred choice for many consumers, the growth in digital financing and the introduction of more accessible EV models signal an industry on the brink of transformation. Collaboration among industry players, financial institutions, and policymakers will be key to ensuring sustainable growth and greater accessibility for all consumers. With the right innovations and strategies, the sector is well-positioned to adapt to changing market dynamics and drive long-term success.
Read the latest TransUnion VPI Q4 2024 report here.
ENDS
Notes to Editors:
* Gen X (born 1965-1980), Millennials (born 1981-1996) and Gen Z (born 1997-2012)
The TransUnion South Africa Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) tracks vehicle pricing trends across new and used markets, integrating data from SACRRA and industry-leading sources.
For more information, visit: www.transunion.co.za
South Africa’s Lenders Adopted Prudent Risk Strategies to Drive Growth in Q4 2024
- Card issuers rewarded performing existing cardholders with credit limit increases, but offered lower credit limits to new cardholders
- Consumers increasingly turned to non-bank lenders for personal loans
- Vehicle loan originations increased for the second consecutive quarter, indicating optimism for the sector
According to TransUnion’s (NYSE:TRU) Q4 2024 South Africa Industry Insights Report, the country’s credit card issuers have adapted their acquisition strategies to enable prudent growth, while effective risk management has led to a decline in account-level delinquencies. During Q4 2024, credit card issuers reduced the average credit card limit on new accounts by 3.9% year-over-year (YoY), while at the same time they increased credit limits on existing credit cards[1] by 5.0%.
The limit increase observations were prominent among prime plus consumers (+4.1% average credit limit increase) and super prime[2] consumers (+1.8%). As a result of higher line access and consumers continuing to leverage credit cards to meet financial and transactional needs, total outstanding balances rose by 7.8% YoY. These insights are echoed in TransUnion South Africa’s Q4 2024 Consumer Pulse Report, where 13% of consumers responded that they had increased their usage of available credit.
An improving performance picture, as observed since Q2 2022, continued as delinquencies (measured as accounts 90 days or more past due) decreased by 34 basis points (bps) YoY during Q4 2024. This trend shows that South African consumers have been able to maintain their credit card payment obligations, while leveraging their cards to navigate the continued high cost of living that has put pressure on disposable income.
“Lenders who are sustaining growth and profitability are drawing on enhanced risk attributes to stimulate a greater share of spend and wallet by identifying consumers who are likely to use credit lines judiciously,” said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa. “At a time when new account acquisition is costly, enabling lower-risk consumers to re-engage with their inactive cards, or to extend the use of existing cards, will encourage prudent growth and enable customer loyalty.”
Personal loan lenders target younger borrowers
While personal loan originations from traditional banks declined by 6.2% YoY in Q4 2024, personal loan originations from non-bank lenders increased by 13.9% YoY. Non-bank personal loan originations among Gen Z[3] consumers grew by 48.5% YoY, with this cohort accounting for 15.5% of all non-bank originations.
Non-bank personal loan originations increased YoY across all risk tiers (except for the super prime risk tier, where originations declined by a marginal 1.0% YoY), with the greatest increase seen among prime borrowers (16.1%). However, bank personal loans declined across all risk tiers YoY, except for subprime, where they increased by 6.0% YoY.
Banks are expanding their personal loan offerings to a greater proportion of subprime borrowers. Among bank personal loans, the share of subprime borrowers increased from 53% in Q4 2023 to 58% in Q4 2024, with the share of near prime borrowers remaining consistent across the year. There were minimal YoY fluctuations across the remaining risk tiers. In contrast, the distribution across risk tiers for non-bank personal loans remained consistent over the last two quarters of 2024.
The personal loans market continues to be dominated by younger borrowers, although the total share of originations by borrowers aged 45 and younger did decline marginally in 2024. Seventy-five percent of bank personal loans were granted to Gen X and Millennial customers during Q4 2024, down from 78% one year prior, while 70% of non-bank personal loans were granted to the same age group in Q4 2024, compared to 72% one year prior. At the same time, both lender types are growing their portfolio among the youngest Gen Z borrower group, with 19% of bank personal loans going to Gen Z borrowers in Q4 2024, up from 16% one year prior, and 16% of non-bank personal loans going to these consumers in Q4 2024, up from 12% one year prior.
With respect to credit performance, bank personal loan account-level delinquencies at 90+ days past due dropped by eight bps YoY to 26.6%, while non-bank personal loan delinquencies increased by 452 bps to 40.6%.
“Non-bank personal lenders have a more tolerant risk appetite than banks, and they are responding positively to market demand across age groups and risk tiers,” says Naik. “Lenders that maintain rigorous risk assessment practices that enable greater and earlier prediction of risk, offer education on how to use and manage credit, and empower younger consumers to build their credit profiles, will ensure the continued sustainability of the personal loan market.”
Vehicle loan market continued its recovery path
The vehicle loans market showed encouraging signs of continued growth, as origination volumes increased by 9.6% YoY, and average new loan amounts grew by 1.4%. The greatest growth in originations was observed among Gen Z consumers, where originations grew by 27.9%, although their share of total new finance agreements remains relatively low compared to older age groups. This is the second consecutive quarter in which total vehicle loan originations grew YoY, with the last increase in origination volumes before these two increases having been in Q3 2022. Given the 0.25 bps decrease in interest rates as of November 2024 and a positive outlook for consumer confidence, the vehicle loan market is expected to continue this recovery trend.
These positive trends were also evident in the Q4 2024 TransUnion South Africa Vehicle Pricing Index, that revealed a growing share of financed vehicles within the R250,000 to R750,000 price range. This shift suggests that, while affordability may still be a concern, consumers are prioritising flexible financing solutions and adjusting their purchasing behaviour to align with available credit and economic conditions.
“While the two recent interest rate decreases were just 25 basis points each, the significant increase in new vehicle loan originations indicates that South Africans are becoming more optimistic about their financial futures,” says Naik. “While vehicle ownership is aspirational for many individuals, it’s also the key to unlocking growth for entrepreneurs, and the owners of micro and small enterprises, all of whom are the engines of economic growth in South Africa.
“As part of our drive to expand financial inclusion, TransUnion has included a wide range of alternative data into our scoring solutions, so that more South Africans are more visible in our risk scoring models, in turn creating the platform for them to access finance for the first time.”
Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)
|
Product |
YoY origination growth |
Serious account-level delinquency rate* |
YoY basis points (bps) change in delinquency rate |
| Credit card |
5.6% |
12.0% |
-33 bps |
| Bank personal loan |
-6.2% |
26.6% |
-8 bps |
| Non-bank personal loan |
13.9% |
40.6% |
452 bps |
| Clothing accounts |
-4.0% |
26.4% |
-143 bps |
| Retail instalment |
14.9% |
27.5% |
-204 bps |
| Retail revolving |
11.9% |
14.5% |
-500 bps |
| Home loans |
-13.2% |
7.1% |
26 bps |
| Vehicle finance |
9.6%% |
4.8% |
13 bps |
*Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears
- [1] Credit card accounts that are currently open and active in the portfolio.
- [2] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).
- [3] TransUnion age distribution: Gen Z (Born 1995 – 2010); Millennials (Born 1980-1994); Gen X (Born 1965-1979); Baby Boomers (Born 1946-1964
South African Consumer Credit Market Adapts to Economic Pressures in Q1 2025
- 36% of consumers planning to take out a new car loan or lease within the next year prefer hybrid vehicles, reflecting a growing inclination towards fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly transportation options
- 79% of consumers expect their income will grow in the coming months
- 82% of respondents are extremely or very concerned about inflation, with rising costs continuing to be a major stressor for consumers as they navigate household budgeting and financial planning
South African consumers continue to adapt to a fluctuating economic environment, with TransUnion’s Q1 2025 Consumer Pulse study[1] revealing key trends in household financial management, credit activity and vehicle financing. Amid ongoing financial pressures, a significant increase in intended hybrid vehicle financing highlights evolving consumer preferences.
“Despite the challenges posed by inflation and economic uncertainty, South Africans continue to show resilience in managing their finances,” said Ayesha Hatea, Director of Research and Consulting at TransUnion. “We are seeing notable shifts toward more purposeful financial planning, credit management and strategic spending. While economic pressures remain, consumers are finding ways to balance credit usage, savings, and debt repayments more effectively.”
Economic Concerns and Credit Usage Trends
The report highlights consumers’ ongoing financial concerns, with 42% of respondents stating that their household income is not keeping up with inflation, despite inflation being at the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s target range[2]. These ongoing concerns could be because 40% of consumers said their income stayed the same in the past three months, while 22% reported it decreased.
“With more than six in ten South Africans reporting no increase in their income, it’s clear to see why consumers are trying to find new ways to manage their financial commitments, including taking on more credit, and different types of credit, for key purchases,” said Hatea.
The survey data reveals that 37% of respondents plan to apply for new or refinance existing credit within the next year, with 52% of all those surveyed saying they’ve used Buy Now, Pay Later services in the past 12 months.
Amid ongoing concerns about a recession, consumers indicated that they are actively taking steps to prepare. Among those who said they think South Africa is currently in a recession or will be in one by the end of Q1, the most respondents (59%) said they’re preparing for a possible recession by reducing spending followed by 58% building up their savings and 35% prioritising paying down debt.
Debt Repayments and Savings Trends
The data also reveals shifting trends in debt repayments and savings. A worrying trend is that 38% of respondents in Q1 2025 said they’ll be unable to pay at least one of their current bills and loans in full, up from 35% in Q4 2024.
Among those who said they’ll be unable to pay, 34% reported they plan on paying partial amounts they can afford but not the whole balance, while 25% said they’ll dip into their savings to help pay their current bills and loans. A further 20% of consumers aim to borrow money from friends or family members to meet their payment commitments. Additionally, 35% of those surveyed are looking to take on temporary or gig work.
“Managing debt effectively while maintaining savings is a key challenge for many South Africans,” said Hatea. “Consumers who are struggling to meet their payment commitments should engage with their lenders to potentially renegotiate current payment terms. Lenders do not want consumers to default on their debts, and they are often willing to discuss available options with the intention of creating prudent, sustainable financial solutions.”
Hybrid Vehicle Financing Expected to Increase
Of particular interest in the Q1 2025 study is the finding that 36% of consumers planning a new vehicle loan or lease within the next year would consider hybrid vehicles, while 25% would consider an electric vehicle. In comparison, 32% preferred traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, making hybrid cars the top consideration for new vehicle loans or leases among those surveyed.
The latest TransUnion Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) reflects this trend, with the anticipated introduction of more affordable EVs priced under R1 million expected to accelerate their adoption in 2025, thanks to broadening consumer options in the hybrid and EV market.
“This trend highlights how consumers are adapting to broader economic and environmental changes,” said Hatea. “Hybrid vehicles are becoming more accessible, and their appeal extends beyond cost savings to include long-term benefits such as reduced environmental impact and lower running costs. As this market continues to evolve, we anticipate sustained growth in consumer interest and adoption.”
Fraud Concerns
The study highlights that nearly one in three respondents (31%) check their credit reports monthly, with 54% of those who said they monitor their credit doing so to try and improve their credit score. This indicates an awareness of the importance of credit health management.
A smaller 34% of credit monitoring consumers said they check their credit reports to protect against fraudulent activity. More than half (51%) of all those surveyed reported being targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last three months but not falling victim, emphasising the importance of heightened security awareness.
Among the most common fraud schemes reported by those who said they were targeted were money/ gift card scam (33%), smishing (33%), phishing (32%) and third-party seller scams on legitimate online retail websites (31%), emphasising the urgency for consumers to remain vigilant.
“With digital transactions and online banking becoming standard, financial institutions are urged to implement stronger fraud prevention measures, while consumers are encouraged to monitor their credit activity and adopt safer financial practices,” said Hatea.
Adapting to Improve Credit Health
In response to ongoing financial pressures, South African consumers are making strategic adjustments to their household budgets. In the past three months, 52% said they have cut back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel and entertainment, with 43% of them reporting scaling back on large purchases like furniture, appliances and cars. This cautious approach highlights a continued emphasis on financial resilience and long-term stability.
“Our findings show that South Africans are taking a more proactive approach to managing their finances amid economic uncertainty,” said Hatea. “While financial pressures persist, consumers are prioritising essential spending, reducing discretionary expenses, and making thoughtful financial decisions to maintain stability. Providing them with the right tools, education and financial products will be crucial in supporting their financial well-being in the months ahead.”
The Reserve Bank’s decision to reduce the repo rate by 0.25% to 7.5% this January, with no change in March[3], aims to support economic growth and ease borrowing costs for consumers. This adjustment, coupled with improved inflation expectations, is expected to provide further relief to consumers and stimulate economic activity.
As economic conditions evolve, businesses, financial institutions, and policymakers will need to align with these shifting behaviours, offering solutions that promote financial inclusion, long-term stability, and economic growth.
Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.
[1] Q1 2025 South African Consumer Pulse Study was a survey of 950 South African adults from Feb. 10 to 24, 2025.
[2] Inflation Targeting Framework
[3]: repo rate by 0.25% in January to 7.5%: Current Market Rates
South Africa’s Auto Sector Sees Strong Growth Amid Evolving Consumer and Insurance Trends
- New passenger car sales hit multi-year highs, totalling 102,268 units in Q1 2025
- Younger buyers and budget-conscious consumers reshape the financing and brand landscape
- South Africa’s younger car buyers are turning to TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, reshaping the automotive marketing playbook
- New insights on insurance trends highlight growing risk of uninsured vehicles
The latest TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report (formerly the Vehicle Pricing Index) for Q1 2025 highlights a strong rebound in the country’s automotive market. This recovery has been driven by improved consumer sentiment, declining interest rates, access to retirement savings through two-pot withdrawals, and rising real wages. According to naamsa data, new passenger vehicle sales continued their upward trajectory in the first quarter, with monthly volumes averaging over 34,000 units, the highest levels seen since Q3 2015.
Affordability remains a key driver of vehicle purchasing and financing decisions. Creative financing options, longer ownership cycles, and the growing availability of value-oriented models are significantly reshaping consumer behaviour, particularly among younger and first-time buyers. The Q1 2025 TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights report highlights that several emerging brands offering competitively priced vehicles have recorded strong year-over-year growth, contributing to the overall surge in new vehicle sales.
“South African consumers are returning to the vehicle market with a clear focus on value and flexibility,” says Lee Naik, CEO TransUnion Africa. “We’re seeing a continued shift away from traditional premium segments in favour of more accessible alternatives that meet evolving needs and budgets.”
Insurance Trends Reveal Shifting Landscape and Rising Risk
The Q1 2025 report introduces new data on insurance-linked vehicle asset finance (VAF). As of early 2025, only 39% of insured vehicle owners had financed vehicles, down from 44% in 2020. This signals a rise in alternative financing or lapses in insurance post-purchase, especially concerning as TransUnion’s 2024 Insurance Survey found that 25% of vehicle users had driven uninsured in the past six months.
This trend has implications for lenders, who face greater asset risk in the event of write-offs without insurance recovery, and for insurers, whose portfolios may now carry increased exposure. To mitigate these risks, strategies such as bundled insurance, usage-based coverage and low-cost flexible insurance models are growing in relevance.
Used Vehicle Momentum Slows as New Sales Lead Recovery
While used vehicles have dominated financing trends in recent years, Q1 2025 marked a notable shift back toward new vehicle purchases, driven by easing interest rates, improved entry-level model availability, and aggressive manufacturer incentives. Notably, the influx of competitively priced Chinese models has attracted budget-conscious buyers away from the used market, fuelling fresh growth in new vehicle registrations.
“Consumers are holding onto their cars for an average of six to eight years, compared to the previous five years, a trend that reflects affordability constraints and a more cautious approach to ownership,” says Naik.
Affordability and Flexibility Drive Change
The report reveals that shifting consumer preferences are reshaping the competitive landscape, with some established manufacturers experiencing year-over-year sales declines while more affordable and value-driven entrants continue to gain market share.
“The definition of value is changing,” says Naik. “It’s no longer just about the price tag, it’s about financing flexibility, long-term ownership costs, and trust in the product. That’s what’s driving consumer decisions today.”
Social Media's Growing Influence on South African Car Buyers
Generation Z’s1 rising influence, with a 27.9% year-on-year increase in vehicle finance volumes, highlights why social media has become essential for automotive brands aiming to attract younger buyers. As South Africans spend over 3.5 hours daily on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, 76% of users now turn to social media for product research, pushing automotive brands toward digital-first strategies with influencer campaigns, short-form videos, and interactive content, yet South Africa’s low social media ad spend signals a major untapped growth opportunity for marketers.
Social platforms are reshaping how South African consumers research, engage with, and purchase vehicles, particularly among Gen Z and Millennials1 who expect personalised, digital-first experiences. To stay competitive, brands are adopting influencer collaborations, platform-specific strategies, AI-enabled targeting, and immersive tools like augmented reality and virtual reality. Social commerce is gaining ground as buyers look for seamless, in-app journeys from browsing to booking.
Economic Outlook: Growth with Caution
The broader economic outlook for South Africa in 2025 remains cautiously optimistic, with GDP expected to grow by 1.4%, driven primarily by household consumption. While industrial output remains under pressure, consumer-driven sectors, particularly retail and vehicle sales, continue to show resilience. Vehicle export activity rose modestly by 0.4% year-over-year in Q1 2025, signalling a gradual recovery following the sharp decline in the previous quarter.
“The strong recovery in new vehicle sales is a positive sign,” says Naik. “But sustaining this growth will require policy certainty, infrastructure investment, and structural reforms. Without these, the economy remains vulnerable.”
“The South African automotive sector is adapting to new consumer behaviours and market forces. The insurance gap, affordability options, credit access and rising Gen Z1 participation will shape the road ahead. Collaboration across industry players is vital for long-term growth,” concludes Naik.
Read the full TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report here.
1 Generation X (Gen X): Born 1965–1980; Millennials (Gen Y): Born 1981–1996; Gen Z (Generation Z) Born 1997–2012
ENDS
Notes to Editors: To provide you with timely market insights, we are updating our reporting structure.
Starting this quarter, the Vehicle Pricing Index will be renamed the TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report, reflecting our broader focus on mobility trends. Vehicle Finance data will now be included in the TransUnion South Africa Industry Insights Report (IIR).
New Telco-Powered Credit Score Set to Transform Access to Finance for Millions of South Africans
- TransUnion Africa, MTN and its digital platform business, Chenosis, are collaborating to harness mobile network data, setting a new standard for financial inclusion and responsible lending
- A new alternative scoring solution, powered by Call Data Records (CDR), will help millions of financially excluded South Africans gain access to credit
- By incorporating non-traditional data based on consumer consent, lenders can make more accurate and fair credit decisions, reducing risk while increasing approval rates
TransUnion Africa, in partnership with MTN and Chenosis, has launched CreditVision® Telco Data Score, a first-of-its-kind credit scoring solution that uses mobile phone call data records to help millions of South Africans with limited or no formal credit history gain access to financial services.
This alternative data scoring model leverages Call Data Records (CDR), which reflect patterns in mobile phone network usage behaviour and correlates it to an individual’s financial behaviour. By using telco data as a proxy for financial reliability, the CreditVision Telco Data Score enables lenders to accurately assess New-to-Credit (NTC) consumers and expand access to safe, affordable credit.
Helping the Financially Excluded
According to TransUnion estimates, over 1.4 million credit-invisible South Africans open new credit accounts each year, contributing to more than four million new accounts over the past three years. Yet traditional scoring models often fail to assess this segment accurately, leaving more than 16 million adults outside the formal credit system.
Approximately 35% of New-to-Credit consumers are under the age of 25, many of whom are new to the workforce and often use credit to buy clothing for work, highlighting the need for innovative tools that support younger, digitally active individuals who may lack a conventional credit footprint. Successfully integrating these and other excluded consumers into the economy could add approximately R173 billion1 to South Africa's GDP.
“With over 500 million2 people across the continent excluded from formal financial systems, the scale of the challenge is undeniable. Traditional data models fail to reflect the realities of African consumers, leaving millions without access to credit and the opportunities it enables. Financial inclusion isn’t just part of our mission, it’s our mandate,” said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa. “That’s why we believe the only way forward is to think differently, to lead with bold, African-born solutions. Innovations like CreditVision Telco Data Score, designed for Africa, by Africa, are helping us responsibly harness mobile data at scale. In doing so, we’re not only expanding access to credit, but we’re also unlocking economic potential, accelerating inclusive growth, and reshaping the future of finance across the continent.”
Creating Opportunity with Consent and Compliance
The use of CDR data is subject to explicit consumer consent and is managed in compliance with South Africa’s Protection of Personal Information Act (POPIA). MTN is responsible for consent management and will ensure that Chenosis, MTN’s API marketplace, facilitates the connection between MTN’s data ecosystem and partners like TransUnion in a secure and scalable manner.
“This partnership demonstrates how mobile technology and secure data sharing can support positive change in the financial sector and unlock new opportunities for millions of South Africans,” said Selorm Adadevoh, Group Chief Commercial Officer, MTN Group. “We are committed to ensuring that data is used responsibly, with the customer’s interests at the forefront. This is a model of what responsible innovation can look like.”
Empowering Lenders and Growing the Economy
For lenders, the CreditVision Telco Data Score has demonstrated a 25–35% improvement in predictive performance over previous alternative data models, based on recent pre-launch validations across the retail and banking sectors.
By adopting CreditVision Telco Data Score, lenders can better predict user behaviour and support responsible lending by ensuring that credit users at risk of default are not overexposed and can be effectively supported throughout their credit journey.
Importantly, the product also helps New-to-Credit consumers establish and build their credit footprint over time. According to TransUnion data, low-risk individuals significantly increase their credit exposure within 18 months of becoming credit active, underscoring the long-term benefits of responsible financial inclusion strategies.
“With Chenosis, we enable collaboration between mobile operators and solution providers while maintaining high security and compliance standards,” said Waseem Amra, Head of Products and Platforms, Chenosis. “This partnership highlights how secure data access can support innovation in financial services that can transform lives.”
This partnership between TransUnion Africa, MTN, and Chenosis reflects the growing trend of using diverse data sources to create more accurate and inclusive financial access. Integrating mobile network insights into credit scoring provides a practical and scalable way to reach more individuals, while maintaining high standards of privacy and compliance.
“With this inclusive innovation, TransUnion has taken the lead in creating an impactful solution to one of the continent’s most pressing challenges – finding responsible pathways to greater financial inclusion that will unlock opportunities for individual and national growth. By turning mobile data into meaningful opportunity, we have set the standard in making transformation possible by showing how technology can be used in groundbreaking alternative ways. Together with MTN and Chenosis, we are building a future where every South African, regardless of their financial history, has the chance to be seen, to be trusted, and to thrive,” Naik concluded. “When financial institutions can measure risk more effectively, they can lend more confidently, and more consumers can access opportunity, and that’s a win for everyone.”
1. Based on TransUnion’s modelling and interpretation of economic market dynamics. 2. Source: The Global Findex Database 2021